Brecon and Radnor by-election on Thursday Watch

Fullofsurprises
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#81
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#81
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Yes but if Corbyn wins the election, that’s his problem and if Boris wins (or even doesn’t clearly lose so that he resigns) asking for an extension after polling day is too late to be of any use to Farage.
All true, but I can't see Farage not being free to explain the truth of this to the electorate during the election.

One absolutely key factor will be the extent to which the main media once again act as Farage's personal microphone portering service during the election, as they have frequently done at previous elections, despite the singular fact that this man has never once one an election for any UK-based role as an individual and despite his incredibly seedy history. The prognosis for change in this department is not good. :sad:
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Burton Bridge
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#82
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#82
(Original post by Rakas21)
Multiple sources now confirming that they believe Labour has come 4th. Some think they may have even lost their deposit.
This is exactly what I feared would happen, I think Labour will be finished in the next election if they don't get their back side into gear and say what they actually want regarding brexit. Remain or leave, if its leave what deal they want and stick to it, if its its remain what type of remain they want and stock to it.

We need to know, we have a right to know, what they have done in the last few years is disgusting, sit on the fence, reject everything. They need to grow up and grow a pair say what they want and stick to it. Even as a leaver I would respect them more if they said we are a remain party we want to revoke A50 and scrap brexit. Like Wise I think remainers would respect them more If they said we are a leave party we want a x y and z deal.
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imlikeahermit
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#83
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#83
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
This is exactly what I feared would happen, I think Labour will be finished in the next election if they don't get their back side into gear and say what they actually want regarding brexit. Remain or leave, if its leave what deal they want and stick to it, if its its remain what type of remain they want and stock to it.

We need to know, we have a right to know, what they have done in the last few years is disgusting, sit on the fence, reject everything. They need to grow up and grow a pair say what they want and stick to it. Even as a leaver I would respect them more if they said we are a remain party we want to revoke A50 and scrap brexit. Like Wise I think remainers would respect them more If they said we are a leave party we want a x y and z deal.
For once I agree with you. Labours positioning has been atrocious, essentially ending in always tit for tat exchanges with the government about what they’d do, but never pledged to actually do it.


The issue is that quite frankly, as much as this seat has been won by the Lib Dem’s, they are still not a credible opposition for mass voting, whereas say if labour cemented their position as remain, they would be more credible. That being said, the majority of labour voters probably voted to leave so that is also a tough position to be in.
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nulli tertius
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#84
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#84
(Original post by Rakas21)
Yes, if Boris himself wishes to call its Sep 17th however it seems logical to me that if he thought he’d lose a monc then rather than co-operate he would pre-empt. I think that if it gets past Sep 5th, he’d probably call parliaments bluff given that there are 26 Lab MP’s who seem minded to potentially at least abstain along with a few independents.

All this being said I can see him potentially gambling regardless and simply calling a press conference on Sep 1st stating that he’ll move for election the day parliament returns.
The pro-Brexit Labour MPs (possibly Kate Hoey excepted) aren’t going to do anything to keep him in power; aren’t going to want a crash out and above all aren’t going to want their fingerprints anywhere near sharing any blame for a disaster in circumstances where if there is any credit going, it is going to Boris and the Tories.
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Rakas21
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#85
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#85
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Even calling an election and running it will likely involve sufficient delay to require an extension.
Election process is 5 weeks, 4 days occurring on Thurs 24th October. So that means the vote in parliament must occur effectively by 19th September (21st if they can be cajoled to sit on Saturday).

(Original post by nulli tertius)
Here are the names of the 16 independents.

https://beta.parliament.uk/houses/1A...embers/current
Just looking at the list and actually if we assume Lab-Con betrayers are equal in number (in terms of a monc) then actually Boris (and thus a potential no deal) looks safer than one thinks.

Ian Austin
Frank Field
Kelvin Hopkins
Lady Hermon
Ivan Lewis
Jared O’Mara (resigning)

All Of those could reasonably be bought to at least Abstain.
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nulli tertius
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#86
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#86
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
All true, but I can't see Farage not being free to explain the truth of this to the electorate during the election.

One absolutely key factor will be the extent to which the main media once again act as Farage's personal microphone portering service during the election, as they have frequently done at previous elections, despite the singular fact that this man has never once one an election for any UK-based role as an individual and despite his incredibly seedy history. The prognosis for change in this department is not good. :sad:
I’m not so sure. May, Corbyn and Cable were an editor’s nightmare. It is one of the reasons Lucas got so much airtime. Boris, particularly, but also Swinson, are much more media friendly.
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nulli tertius
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#87
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#87
(Original post by Rakas21)
Just looking at the list and actually if we assume Lab-Con betrayers are equal in number (in terms of a monc) then actually Boris (and thus a potential no deal) looks safer than one thinks.

Ian Austin
Frank Field
Kelvin Hopkins
Lady Hermon
Ivan Lewis
Jared O’Mara (resigning)

All Of those could reasonably be bought to at least Abstain.
I think you are right on the Independents other than Sylvia Hermon. She has so many personal issues with both the Tories and the DUP that she would be a lost cause even without her view that she is the sole representative of the NI Remain majority in Parliament.
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Burton Bridge
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#88
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
For once I agree with you. Labours positioning has been atrocious, essentially ending in always tit for tat exchanges with the government about what they’d do, but never pledged to actually do it.


The issue is that quite frankly, as much as this seat has been won by the Lib Dem’s, they are still not a credible opposition for mass voting, whereas say if labour cemented their position as remain, they would be more credible. That being said, the majority of labour voters probably voted to leave so that is also a tough position to be in.
There is not a need to add for once, you agree with me on the other subject, in part at least Unfortunately you are simply just not understanding what I am saying or maybe getting tied up in a leave vs remain tribal arugement?

Anyway according to statistics majority of labour voters are remain. As a former member I would say that's debatable in the North, I think to be fair it is highly regional and tribal subject. Unfortunately this links with what I was saying on the other thread. Labour have helped create this mess by the frustration of the process. They have played opposition politics (which is exactly what you said in your post 'always tit for tat exchanges with the government about what they’d do, but never pledged to actually do it.') regarding the subject of Brexit.

They have been absolutely terrible, which is another reason why the country is currently facing no deal. As I said if Labour had been truthful and stuck by the promises they got elected on we would now of left in a more orderly manner.
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123543
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Even if Elphicke, at some stage in the future, is convicted of the charges he faces, it will probably be well after the next General Election. As someone pointed out, the trial is unlikely to finish until way into next year.

A recall petition is another matter though, and I could see leave supporters in Dover demanding an MP who will back the PMs approach to Brexit, particularly with such a slender majority now.

Taking a quick look at past results, the Tories have held the seat since 2010 with a reasonable majority of between 6,000-8,000. However, it was a Labour seat under Blair - this is very interesting because the Lib Dems have done very poorly in recent years, however, if there is a more centrist core, they could spike. In 2010, the Liberals received 8,000 votes - so it's not a given that they would be out of the top 2.

It would be a real test for Labour under Corbyn's leadership because they really should be contesting this in any other circumstance.

However, the Brexit Party could have success too because UKIP won 10,000 votes in 2015. In the same year, the Conservatives won with 21,000 and Labour came in second with 15,000.

This could be absolutely fascinating given the political makeup of this constituency.
Last edited by 123543; 1 month ago
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123543
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#90
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#90
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
For once I agree with you. Labours positioning has been atrocious, essentially ending in always tit for tat exchanges with the government about what they’d do, but never pledged to actually do it.


The issue is that quite frankly, as much as this seat has been won by the Lib Dem’s, they are still not a credible opposition for mass voting, whereas say if labour cemented their position as remain, they would be more credible. That being said, the majority of labour voters probably voted to leave so that is also a tough position to be in.
The Liberal Democrats are definitely a credible opposition for mass voting. Most people would definitely identify as centre or centre-left than socialist or Marx-admiring. There is an absolutely massive core of voters that are fed up with the Tories on the right peddling a no-deal and Corbyn on the left demanding nationalisation and fantasy economics.

People can see right through "constructive ambiguity" and unfortunately, in a demagogical, polarised political landscape, people will vote for a clear, unambiguous position. It may be "tough" for Labour, but they really must have a viable alternative to the Conservatives no-deal Brexit, which isn't revoke and remain. There is quite a large faction of people that would be ok with customs union/single market, but they've moved away from this, and failed to get the SNP onboard during the indicative votes process.

It's outrageously frustrating the SNP didn't back Clarke's customs union proposal. It was a general consensus most people could have worked around, however, as usual, they have to frustrate the process and cause choas to drive towards indyref2.
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Burton Bridge
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#91
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(Original post by 123543)
The Liberal Democrats are definitely a credible opposition for mass voting. Most people would definitely identify as centre or centre-left than socialist or Marx-admiring. There is an absolutely massive core of voters that are fed up with the Tories on the right peddling a no-deal and Corbyn on the left demanding nationalisation and fantasy economics.

People can see right through "constructive ambiguity" and unfortunately, in a demagogical, polarised political landscape, people will vote for a clear, unambiguous position. It may be "tough" for Labour, but they really must have a viable alternative to the Conservatives no-deal Brexit, which isn't revoke and remain. There is quite a large faction of people that would be ok with customs union/single market, but they've moved away from this, and failed to get the SNP onboard during the indicative votes process.

It's outrageously frustrating the SNP didn't back Clarke's customs union proposal. It was a general consensus most people could have worked around, however, as usual, they have to frustrate the process and cause choas to drive towards indyref2.
You think the SNP are remotely interested in what's best for the United Kingdom?

Nationalisation and socialism works and has been proven to work, unlike the failed example we are currently following. Let's look at housing for example; the socialist post WW2 movement gave us a house for everyone, knocked down slums and inproved the lives of generations of people. Therefore nationalised housing gave us a house for everyone. Unfortunately we voted for an idealist - they got sold - the majority of the public loved them being sold at the time, unfortunately they were too short sighted to see the damage that was being created.

Now we convinced as anation the only way was right (or capitalism) political speaking. Now we are looking for unicorn land in the center!

Now we live with the Consequences, however unfortunately it's the children or grandchildren of those who thought it was such a great idea that are getting stung.

The red Tories (New labours) shared ownership is rammell policy a typical example of middle ground trying to keep everyone happy polices.

Add other social problems and we have no chance of affordable housing for all, unless we grab the steering wheel and turn it, unfortunately in May 2015 we turned it a little bit, however in the wrong direction and look at the mess that created!
Last edited by Burton Bridge; 1 month ago
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Rakas21
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#92
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(Original post by 123543)
Even if Elphicke, at some stage in the future, is convicted of the charges he faces, it will probably be well after the next General Election. As someone pointed out, the trial is unlikely to finish until way into next year.

A recall petition is another matter though, and I could see leave supporters in Dover demanding an MP who will back the PMs approach to Brexit, particularly with such a slender majority now.

Taking a quick look at past results, the Tories have held the seat since 2010 with a reasonable majority of between 6,000-8,000. However, it was a Labour seat under Blair - this is very interesting because the Lib Dems have done very poorly in recent years, however, if there is a more centrist core, they could spike. In 2010, the Liberals received 8,000 votes - so it's not a given that they would be out of the top 2.

It would be a real test for Labour under Corbyn's leadership because they really should be contesting this in any other circumstance.

However, the Brexit Party could have success too because UKIP won 10,000 votes in 2015. In the same year, the Conservatives won with 21,000 and Labour came in second with 15,000.

This could be absolutely fascinating given the political makeup of this constituency.
Worth saying that there is a likely by-election in late September in Sheffield Hallam. This should on anything like current polling not only return to the Liberal Democrats but will probably become their safest seat as things stand. The real interest will be the battle for second between Labour and the Tories even if around 25% of the vote each.
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123543
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#93
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
You think the SNP are remotely interested in what's best for the United Kingdom?

Nationalisation and socialism works and has been proven to work, unlike the failed example we are currently following. Let's look at housing for example; the socialist post WW2 movement gave us a house for everyone, knocked down slums and inproved the lives of generations of people. Therefore nationalised housing gave us a house for everyone. Unfortunately we voted for an idealist - they got sold - the majority of the public loved them being sold at the time, unfortunately they were too short sighted to see the damage that was being created.

Now we convinced as anation the only way was right (or capitalism) political speaking. Now we are looking for unicorn land in the center!

Now we live with the Consequences, however unfortunately it's the children or grandchildren of those who thought it was such a great idea that are getting stung.

The red Tories (New labours) shared ownership is rammell policy a typical example of middle ground trying to keep everyone happy polices.

Add other social problems and we have no chance of affordable housing for all, unless we grab the steering wheel and turn it, unfortunately in May 2015 we turned it a little bit, however in the wrong direction and look at the mess that created!
"You think the SNP are remotely interested in what's best for the United Kingdom?" No of course not, that's my point. I'm as unionist as a Scottish unionist gets.
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123543
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#94
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Worth saying that there is a likely by-election in late September in Sheffield Hallam. This should on anything like current polling not only return to the Liberal Democrats but will probably become their safest seat as things stand. The real interest will be the battle for second between Labour and the Tories even if around 25% of the vote each.
Yes, that's very true - did you see the thing Jared O'Mara's aide posted on his twitter?

I think the Lib Dems should petition Nick Clegg to stand haha. I could see the tories taking second if there hasn't been a successful attempt by Parliament to thwart no-deal.
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Fullofsurprises
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#95
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Worth saying that there is a likely by-election in late September in Sheffield Hallam. This should on anything like current polling not only return to the Liberal Democrats but will probably become their safest seat as things stand. The real interest will be the battle for second between Labour and the Tories even if around 25% of the vote each.
Yes, but presumably it wouldn't go Con in what was a pretty solid Libdem seat under Cleggie, so even if it switches back Libdem after O'Mara, it doesn't represent a change in the majority arithmetic.
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Fullofsurprises
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#96
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(Original post by 123543)
I think the Lib Dems should petition Nick Clegg to stand haha. I could see the tories taking second if there hasn't been a successful attempt by Parliament to thwart no-deal.
He's making far too much money telling lies for Zuckerberg. In his element. :rolleyes:
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Rakas21
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#97
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Yes, but presumably it wouldn't go Con in what was a pretty solid Libdem seat under Cleggie, so even if it switches back Libdem after O'Mara, it doesn't represent a change in the majority arithmetic.
Sure but its another seat where Labour get savaged, especially if the Tories take second.
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Fullofsurprises
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#98
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Sure but its another seat where Labour get savaged, especially if the Tories take second.
We're really starting to see how the general election will work now - the threat to the Tories from Brexit and the LibDems on the one hand and the strong potential for a collapsed Lab vote on the other. Where do these two graph lines meet?

From the LDP result yesterday, it is looking like a great many and possibly all of the former Libdem seats across SW England will return to them - that's something like 40 fewer seats for Boris. Can he make that many up in the North, the SE and the Midlands from Lab against the Brexit threat? The math doesn't look great for BJ. :teehee:
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123543
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
We're really starting to see how the general election will work now - the threat to the Tories from Brexit and the LibDems on the one hand and the strong potential for a collapsed Lab vote on the other. Where do these two graph lines meet?

From the LDP result yesterday, it is looking like a great many and possibly all of the former Libdem seats across SW England will return to them - that's something like 40 fewer seats for Boris. Can he make that many up in the North, the SE and the Midlands from Lab against the Brexit threat? The math doesn't look great for BJ. :teehee:
What are your thoughts on the Scottish result in a General Election? Do you think the Scottish Tory vote will hold up? Will the Lib Dems have a Scottish resurgence?
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Fullofsurprises
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#100
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(Original post by 123543)
What are your thoughts on the Scottish result in a General Election? Do you think the Scottish Tory vote will hold up? Will the Lib Dems have a Scottish resurgence?
I think the trend for the Tories to recover in Scotland that was being built under the very effective leadership of Ruth Davidson might come to a bit of a juddering halt, as Boris isn't exactly the stuff that Scottish dreams are made of, even Scottish Tory ones. That said, I can imagine the Conservatives picking up maybe one more seat, just on current trends. The SNP I think will continue to lose seats to Labour, because Corbyn, no matter how adrift of Middle England he is, is much more the sort of politician that the Strathclyde working classes like, making it harder for SNP exceptionalism to resonate. The SNP have also had a somewhat torrid time as a party with various scandals. I don't expect the LibDems to do anything in Scotland outside their usual Highland & Island haunts, plus a few like Edinburgh West.
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