Brecon and Radnor by-election on Thursday Watch

Fullofsurprises
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Back to topic, I'm really excited to see what happens tomorrow. This is key constituency being a more or less tory safe seat and a leave one too boot.

We have seen the Labour vote scrap by in lab/tory marginal with the tory vote being reduced too insignificance, this by election will paint a story of what could happen. I don't think the Liberals will win it, even with the rarther undemocratic scheming of the remain campaign but if they do.... It could be bad news for democracy as political game play will explode
Usually the turnout is lower in by-elections than in the general election, so that will have an effect. Low turnout tends to mean a higher percentage of middle class and educated voters in the tally, which might go towards the LibDems in this one - also the LDP have been resurgent lately in the SW generally, hence 'expert' opinion is giving it to the LibDems. However, I do wonder if the Tories will do better than expected, a bit of a bounce for the new leader?
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ColinDent
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#42
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(Original post by Rakas21)
With Sterling already depreciating ahead of time slowly the collapse in no deal will be muted a little, as will any sudden rise in fuel prices. In addition, we are not looking at stonking rises so I doubt we will see protests.
From memory the original fuel protests were when the cost of a litre jumped over £1, ever since fuel prices have just kept rising and rising and we do seem to have become numb to it so I can't see any protests about that anytime soon, unless of course various remain leaning groups were to try to use that as an excuse.
I also don't believe that the cost will change all that much after possibly a short term bump.
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Burton Bridge
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#43
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(Original post by ColinDent)
From memory the original fuel protests were when the cost of a litre jumped over £1, ever since fuel prices have just kept rising and rising and we do seem to have become numb to it so I can't see any protests about that anytime soon, unless of course various remain leaning groups were to try to use that as an excuse.
I also don't believe that the cost will change all that much after possibly a short term bump.
They very well might, truth and their protests are very often miles apart
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Burton Bridge
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#44
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Usually the turnout is lower in by-elections than in the general election, so that will have an effect. Low turnout tends to mean a higher percentage of middle class and educated voters in the tally, which might go towards the LibDems in this one - also the LDP have been resurgent lately in the SW generally, hence 'expert' opinion is giving it to the LibDems. However, I do wonder if the Tories will do better than expected, a bit of a bounce for the new leader?
I think so, I think Borris appointment will take the wind out of the sails of the Brexit party. In my opinion we neglect one major factor in the Brexit party vote is the left wing levers like myself deserting the party, speaking as one (former member) and my father was a trade unionist, passionate labour man also a staunch eurosceptic, know I'm far from being alone.

Borris and his team will be looking on to judge the mood in your question, but I wonder what Labour's half hearted we are a remain party in opposition, leave party in government will effect their vote?
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Fullofsurprises
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#45
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#45
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
I think so, I think Borris appointment will take the wind out of the sails of the Brexit party. In my opinion we neglect one major factor in the Brexit party vote is the left wing levers like myself deserting the party, speaking as one (former member) and my father was a trade unionist, passionate labour man also a staunch eurosceptic, know I'm far from being alone.

Borris and his team will be looking on to judge the mood in your question, but I wonder what Labour's half hearted we are a remain party in opposition, leave party in government will effect their vote?
I wonder if we really know what's happening with left-leaning Leavers? I mean, nationally? There probably is research on this, but I bet it's not enough. The real question for the North especially is will they stay with Labour? In places like Brecon & Radnor though, it's a very different picture - there really isn't the same demographic other than in small pockets.
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Burton Bridge
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#46
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#46
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I wonder if we really know what's happening with left-leaning Leavers? I mean, nationally? There probably is research on this, but I bet it's not enough. The real question for the North especially is will they stay with Labour? In places like Brecon & Radnor though, it's a very different picture - there really isn't the same demographic other than in small pockets.
Mmm there are more of us than the London obcessed momentum movement would have you think.

I'm not sure, I know one thing I'm going to find it exceptionally difficult in a general election vote Brexit party as I did in European elections. Its going to be hard not to vote Labour but Labour really are making it hard for anyone to vote for them based on Brexit anyway.
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nulli tertius
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#47
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Mmm there are more of us than the London obcessed momentum movement would have you think.

I'm not sure, I know one thing I'm going to find it exceptionally difficult in a general election vote Brexit party as I did in European elections. Its going to be hard not to vote Labour but Labour really are making it hard for anyone to vote for them based on Brexit anyway.
Couldn’t you say the same thing about Labour and unilateral nuclear disarmament?
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Couldn’t you say the same thing about Labour and unilateral nuclear disarmament?
I don't think that's right no, I think they are more clearer on the subject of nuclear defence.

They are currently committed to keeping trident, unlike the SNP's or Lib Dems
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Rakas21
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#49
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#49
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I wonder if we really know what's happening with left-leaning Leavers? I mean, nationally? There probably is research on this, but I bet it's not enough. The real question for the North especially is will they stay with Labour? In places like Brecon & Radnor though, it's a very different picture - there really isn't the same demographic other than in small pockets.
Polling data suggests that in 2017 about 35% (14%) of the Lab vote was from Leavers (not a shock since Lab said they would leave). Polling data during May/June suggested that about 20% of Brx Party support was from Lab (4% of 2017 Lab vote). This is the vote the Tories will hope to grab.

So there's about 10% to play for in terms of Lab Leave. The worst case scenario of course being that either these people stay home (in which case its unlikely Lab could breach 35% and form a majority) or the armageddon scenario that even a third or half of these vote Tory in gratitude (in which case Boris is probably looking at a Thatcher sized majority).
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Fullofsurprises
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#50
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#50
(Original post by Rakas21)
Polling data suggests that in 2017 about 35% (14%) of the Lab vote was from Leavers (not a shock since Lab said they would leave). Polling data during May/June suggested that about 20% of Brx Party support was from Lab (4% of 2017 Lab vote). This is the vote the Tories will hope to grab.

So there's about 10% to play for in terms of Lab Leave. The worst case scenario of course being that either these people stay home (in which case its unlikely Lab could breach 35% and form a majority) or the armageddon scenario that even a third or half of these vote Tory in gratitude (in which case Boris is probably looking at a Thatcher sized majority).
I'm still to be convinced that Brexit will score well in the UK parliamentary election, UKIP never managed to switch from EU success to UK success.

Heading back to the thread topic, I don't often praise the Mail, but a good article today by their reporter Henry Deedes on the constituency.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-tonight.html
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Rakas21
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#51
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I'm still to be convinced that Brexit will score well in the UK parliamentary election, UKIP never managed to switch from EU success to UK success.

Heading back to the thread topic, I don't often praise the Mail, but a good article today by their reporter Henry Deedes on the constituency.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-tonight.html
I tend to agree with you somewhat however I think the Lab Leave vote is more vulnerable than the Tory Leave vote for the Brx Party simply because if Boris goes for an election before we leave, Lab members will demand the party backs remain or neverendum while Boris will go gung ho for a hard Brexit.

If that happens then I tend to believe that in Lab Leave seats where Brexit got 60% of the vote (Wakefield for example) its entirely possible that they could take 10% of the Labour vote which might cost them seats.

I do doubt the Brexit Party will gain a seat though.
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nulli tertius
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#52
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I tend to agree with you somewhat however I think the Lab Leave vote is more vulnerable than the Tory Leave vote for the Brx Party simply because if Boris goes for an election before we leave, Lab members will demand the party backs remain or neverendum while Boris will go gung ho for a hard Brexit.

If that happens then I tend to believe that in Lab Leave seats where Brexit got 60% of the vote (Wakefield for example) its entirely possible that they could take 10% of the Labour vote which might cost them seats.

I do doubt the Brexit Party will gain a seat though.
You may be right but it is importantant to note that in Mori's Attitudes Survey Labour voters are less likely to consider Brexit the main political issue than either the Tories or the Liberals and, one can infer, the Brexit Party.
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Rakas21
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#53
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
You may be right but it is importantant to note that in Mori's Attitudes Survey Labour voters are less likely to consider Brexit the main political issue than either the Tories or the Liberals and, one can infer, the Brexit Party.
Is that 2017 Lab voters or current Lab voters?

If it’s current then that’s easily explained by the fact that Lab leavers have already deserted them.
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123543
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#54
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I think the Lib Dem's will win it with about 18,000 and the Conservatives will drop to around 15,000, Labour will come in 3rd and the Brexit Party will come in 4th, with the MRLP hopefully giving UKIP a run for their money for 5th.

Here's why:

1. Reselecting Chris Davies was a mistake after the scandals he's faced. The "Boris Bounce" may be less significant where constituents are sceptical of the individual candidate.
2. The "Remain Alliance" - very smart move from Plaid/Greens not to run to bolster LD support. None of the other parties are explicitly a remain party.
3. The left-wing leave vote will be split between Labour, the Conservatives and the Brexit Party (less so, but think of Claire Fox, for example)

However, I do foresee consequences in the future for the "Remain alliance" in a General Election, directly as a result of this by-election. There would be furore in Scotland amongst the pro-UK, pro-EU vote if the Lib Dems didn't contest a seat in favour of the SNP, solely to avert a no-deal Brexit. Economically, orange-bookers and the Greens are quite substantially different. I'm not sure how comfortable many economic liberals would be, voting Green just to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Does anyone have a more detailed expected time of the results at all?
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nulli tertius
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#55
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Is that 2017 Lab voters or current Lab voters?

If it’s current then that’s easily explained by the fact that Lab leavers have already deserted them.
I think it is Labour inclined voters, so would include those who might be lost but not those who would never vote for them again.
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Burton Bridge
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#56
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
You may be right but it is importantant to note that in Mori's Attitudes Survey Labour voters are less likely to consider Brexit the main political issue than either the Tories or the Liberals and, one can infer, the Brexit Party.
I know what you mean, I will find it difficult to not vote Labour in a general. In particular now the Brexit party are talking a deal/pact, with the conservatives, that's puts me right off voting for them and I honestly don't think the pencil will move of I try to put my x in the tories box, I think I'd rather stick pins in my eyes than vote tory. Voting Tory is never the best thing for the country
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Fullofsurprises
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#57
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#57
(Original post by 123543)
I think the Lib Dem's will win it with about 18,000 and the Conservatives will drop to around 15,000, Labour will come in 3rd and the Brexit Party will come in 4th, with the MRLP hopefully giving UKIP a run for their money for 5th.

Here's why:

1. Reselecting Chris Davies was a mistake after the scandals he's faced. The "Boris Bounce" may be less significant where constituents are sceptical of the individual candidate.
2. The "Remain Alliance" - very smart move from Plaid/Greens not to run to bolster LD support. None of the other parties are explicitly a remain party.
3. The left-wing leave vote will be split between Labour, the Conservatives and the Brexit Party (less so, but think of Claire Fox, for example)

However, I do foresee consequences in the future for the "Remain alliance" in a General Election, directly as a result of this by-election. There would be furore in Scotland amongst the pro-UK, pro-EU vote if the Lib Dems didn't contest a seat in favour of the SNP, solely to avert a no-deal Brexit. Economically, orange-bookers and the Greens are quite substantially different. I'm not sure how comfortable many economic liberals would be, voting Green just to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Does anyone have a more detailed expected time of the results at all?
Plaid and the Greens didn't do all that well in the constituency previously, so maybe having them drop out won't make a lot of difference?

I would guess the result could be as late as 3am, it's a really, really large area geographically and there have been heavy rains causing flooding as well.
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Fullofsurprises
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#58
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Right now, in Brecon & Radnorshire, there will be.....

dogs at polling stations. :love:

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Rakas21
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#59
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Right now, in Brecon & Radnorshire, there will be.....

dogs at polling stations. :love:

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Official prediction time..

Looking at the last two elections the Remain alliance aspect is worth about 6%, the Boris bounce because we were so low still suggests a Con-Lib swing of about 11%. Turnout is likely to be about 50% rather than 75%.

So..

Lib - 47% (+17%)
Con - 38% (-11%)
Brx - 11%
Lab - 3%

Majority of about 3000.

..

If there’s a slight crumb to cling to for the Tories it is that polls are always a few days behind so the Boris bounce may still be occurring but realistically the swing will still be sufficient.
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Rakas21
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#60
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Multiple sources now confirming that they believe Labour has come 4th. Some think they may have even lost their deposit.
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