Brecon and Radnor by-election on Thursday Watch

Rakas21
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Turnout confirmed at 59.7% which is for a by-election very high (there are general election seats in the urban north east that barely achieve that).

Apparently a 1985 by-election had a turnout about 75% here so the folk like to vote.

With the high turnout, I am retiring to my chamber since it likely means a 3am onward result.
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Trotsky's Iceaxe
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How to idiotically lose a by-election: A guide for Conservatives

Step 1: Put up a disgraced politician and convicted fraudster as your candidate,
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Palmyra
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BJ's off to a good start then... Majority down to 1.

General election seems inevitable now. I suspect BoJo will wait a few more months to announce it though in order to justify his failure to deliver Brexit.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Palmyra)
BJ's off to a good start then... Majority down to 1.

General election seems inevitable now. I suspect BoJo will wait a few more months to announce it though in order to justify his failure to deliver Brexit.
It will be fascinating to see what happens if there is another by-election featuring a Tory seat. This is likely - Charlie Elphicke, Tory MP for Dover and Deal, is appearing in court on sexual assault charges in early Sept.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...sexual-assault

There may be others as well. A vote of no confidence by early October is not at all unlikely.

Although will Corbyn want an early election now - that's another question. His vote was terrible in B & R, and although that's not exactly Labour territory and no doubt there was tactical voting, it really does suggest a slump in Labour voting.
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Fullofsurprises
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The position in the House now.

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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It will be fascinating to see what happens if there is another by-election featuring a Tory seat. This is likely - Charlie Elphicke, Tory MP for Dover and Deal, is appearing in court on sexual assault charges in early Sept.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...sexual-assault
It is improbable the Elphicke proceedings will be concluded quickly. He has been charged with three counts of sexual assault (the old indecent assault), one from 2007 and the other two from 2016. The 2007 and 2016 alleged offences involve different complainants but the two 2016 charges relate to the same complainant.

He has indicated an intention to plead not guilty. He has had legal advice throughout and so it is clear that is a considered decision and not a knee jerk reaction and so is unlikely to change when he appears in court, bearing in mind that the maximum guilty plea discount requires the defendant to admit guilt at the earliest opportunity.

The offence is triable either way and in the circumstances a Crown Court jury trial looks inevitable and that isn't going to happen this side of Christmas.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
It is improbable the Elphicke proceedings will be concluded quickly. He has been charged with three counts of sexual assault (the old indecent assault), one from 2007 and the other two from 2016. The 2007 and 2016 alleged offences involve different complainants but the two 2016 charges relate to the same complainant.

He has indicated an intention to plead not guilty. He has had legal advice throughout and so it is clear that is a considered decision and not a knee jerk reaction and so is unlikely to change when he appears in court, bearing in mind that the maximum guilty plea discount requires the defendant to admit guilt at the earliest opportunity.

The offence is triable either way and in the circumstances a Crown Court jury trial looks inevitable and that isn't going to happen this side of Christmas.
Ah, OK - so not that one then. We'll have to wait for another Tory MP to misbehave, resign or perish. Or a DUP one in a DUP/SF marginal. :teehee:
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The position in the House now.

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This is misleading in counting Elphicke with the Opposition. Although the whip has been withdrawn, he is a completely reliable Tory supporter.

Also the comment about the Speaker is only true in a very special sense. You can’t ask does he vote Remain or does he vote for the default departure on 31 October. He votes for both or neither depending on the form of the motion on which the vote is tied.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
This is misleading in counting Elphicke with the Opposition. Although the whip has been withdrawn, he is a completely reliable Tory supporter.

Also the comment about the Speaker is only true in a very special sense. You can’t ask does he vote Remain or does he vote for the default departure on 31 October. He votes for both or neither depending on the form of the motion on which the vote is tied.
I'm not clear if they are counting him in. Yes, the whip was returned to Elphicke in the last crucial vote - surely it's reasonable to assume he would still have it for any crucial vote and as you, say even if he didn't have it, he would still support the government. But how do you know they have included him?
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I'm not clear if they are counting him in. Yes, the whip was returned to Elphicke in the last crucial vote - surely it's reasonable to assume he would still have it for any crucial vote and as you, say even if he didn't have it, he would still support the government. But how do you know they have included him?
Here are the names of the 16 independents.

https://beta.parliament.uk/houses/1A...embers/current
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Here are the names of the 16 independents.

https://beta.parliament.uk/houses/1A...embers/current
It's a bit bizarre that all of the main media have this wrong this morning.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Ah, OK - so not that one then. We'll have to wait for another Tory MP to misbehave, resign or perish. Or a DUP one in a DUP/SF marginal. :teehee:
You may well lose MPs who prioritise their future careers if they think they have no future in politics.

Someone like Grieve might well take a judgeship.

Likewise Bebb is well placed to take a job in the Taffia.

There is a lot to be said for being at the front of the queue of ex-MPs.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It will be fascinating to see what happens if there is another by-election featuring a Tory seat. This is likely - Charlie Elphicke, Tory MP for Dover and Deal, is appearing in court on sexual assault charges in early Sept.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...sexual-assault

There may be others as well. A vote of no confidence by early October is not at all unlikely.

Although will Corbyn want an early election now - that's another question. His vote was terrible in B & R, and although that's not exactly Labour territory and no doubt there was tactical voting, it really does suggest a slump in Labour voting.
October is too late. If Labour call a Monc any later than September 5th (basically as soon as parliament returns) then they can’t have the election before we leave and it becomes somewhat pointless (if Lab force a November election then Boris will butcher the Brexit Party and win so it would be retarded).

...

Very pleased with my by-election prediction, almost spot on.

..

Just for the novelty if those swings replicated in a general election we would get..

Con - 33%
Lab - 27%
Lib - 23%

Ukpollingreport shows me that the Tories are short by 18 in this scenario.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
October is too late. If Labour call a Monc any later than September 5th (basically as soon as parliament returns) then they can’t have the election before we leave and it becomes somewhat pointless (if Lab force a November election then Boris will butcher the Brexit Party and win so it would be retarded).

...

Very pleased with my by-election prediction, almost spot on.

..

Just for the novelty if those swings replicated in a general election we would get..

Con - 33%
Lab - 27%
Lib - 23%

Ukpollingreport shows me that the Tories are short by 18 in this scenario.
Do you really think they will stick rigidly to Oct 31st? Despite all the bluster, I am still expecting an announcement that another 6 months is required. The chaos that will ensue from an HB will be too much to inflict on the public and once they are staring down the barrel of the gun, with neither side budging, Boris will blink. He is no Winston.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
October is too late. If Labour call a Monc any later than September 5th (basically as soon as parliament returns) then they can’t have the election before we leave and it becomes somewhat pointless (if Lab force a November election then Boris will butcher the Brexit Party and win so it would be retarded).

on.
Whilst that is strictly correct, the politics won’t play out that way.

The deadline for a 2/3 majority calling a general election before 31 Oct is later. If Boris loses a VONC, he is either going to have to co-operate in an election before 31 Oct, agree to delay Brexit until after an election is held, or be replaced by a caretaker PM which will only require a simple majority of MPs.

The last of these is by far the least attractive for him because he looks weak and loses control of the apparatus of government.

The Tories will also want to avoid any idea that they have agreed to delay Brexit because of how that will be portrayed by Farage.

So Boris won’t block an election.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Do you really think they will stick rigidly to Oct 31st? Despite all the bluster, I am still expecting an announcement that another 6 months is required. The chaos that will ensue from an HB will be too much to inflict on the public and once they are staring down the barrel of the gun, with neither side budging, Boris will blink. He is no Winston.
While Boris May try avoid it by rebranding May’s deal he won’t extend simply because he’ll be knifed if he does and we have a strange situation in which a no deal is electorally good for him.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Whilst that is strictly correct, the politics won’t play out that way.

The deadline for a 2/3 majority calling a general election before 31 Oct is later. If Boris loses a VONC, he is either going to have to co-operate in an election before 31 Oct, agree to delay Brexit until after an election is held, or be replaced by a caretaker PM which will only require a simple majority of MPs.

The last of these is by far the least attractive for him because he looks weak and loses control of the apparatus of government.

The Tories will also want to avoid any idea that they have agreed to delay Brexit because of how that will be portrayed by Farage.

So Boris won’t block an election.
Even calling an election and running it will likely involve sufficient delay to require an extension.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
While Boris May try avoid it by rebranding May’s deal he won’t extend simply because he’ll be knifed if he does and we have a strange situation in which a no deal is electorally good for him.
Yes, I agree with you when you raise the possibility of a mild reworking of the agreement. I still think this will be what is done. Boris might well scrape it through by adopting a much more pragmatic and discoursive attitude towards various opposition MPs that St Theresa of Mayfair (formerly the Robot PM) was able to muster.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Whilst that is strictly correct, the politics won’t play out that way.

The deadline for a 2/3 majority calling a general election before 31 Oct is later. If Boris loses a VONC, he is either going to have to co-operate in an election before 31 Oct, agree to delay Brexit until after an election is held, or be replaced by a caretaker PM which will only require a simple majority of MPs.

The last of these is by far the least attractive for him because he looks weak and loses control of the apparatus of government.

The Tories will also want to avoid any idea that they have agreed to delay Brexit because of how that will be portrayed by Farage.

So Boris won’t block an election.
Yes, if Boris himself wishes to call its Sep 17th however it seems logical to me that if he thought he’d lose a monc then rather than co-operate he would pre-empt. I think that if it gets past Sep 5th, he’d probably call parliaments bluff given that there are 26 Lab MP’s who seem minded to potentially at least abstain along with a few independents.

All this being said I can see him potentially gambling regardless and simply calling a press conference on Sep 1st stating that he’ll move for election the day parliament returns.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Even calling an election and running it will likely involve sufficient delay to require an extension.
Yes but if Corbyn wins the election, that’s his problem and if Boris wins (or even doesn’t clearly lose so that he resigns) asking for an extension after polling day is too late to be of any use to Farage.
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