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Brecon and Radnor by-election on Thursday

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Original post by 123543
"You think the SNP are remotely interested in what's best for the United Kingdom?" No of course not, that's my point. I'm as unionist as a Scottish unionist gets.


I apologise I got the wrong end of the stick, aka I did not read you're post properly.

I'm actually in agreement with you for most of your post, apart from 'nationalisation and fantasy economics'.

Apologies again
Original post by Fullofsurprises
We're really starting to see how the general election will work now - the threat to the Tories from Brexit and the LibDems on the one hand and the strong potential for a collapsed Lab vote on the other. Where do these two graph lines meet?

From the LDP result yesterday, it is looking like a great many and possibly all of the former Libdem seats across SW England will return to them - that's something like 40 fewer seats for Boris. Can he make that many up in the North, the SE and the Midlands from Lab against the Brexit threat? The math doesn't look great for BJ. :teehee:

Suprisingly last nights swings dont actually do a massive amount of damage in the south west, their gains get scattered around.

Its likely because of just how hard their vote fell in 2015.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
I think the trend for the Tories to recover in Scotland that was being built under the very effective leadership of Ruth Davidson might come to a bit of a juddering halt, as Boris isn't exactly the stuff that Scottish dreams are made of, even Scottish Tory ones. That said, I can imagine the Conservatives picking up maybe one more seat, just on current trends. The SNP I think will continue to lose seats to Labour, because Corbyn, no matter how adrift of Middle England he is, is much more the sort of politician that the Strathclyde working classes like, making it harder for SNP exceptionalism to resonate. The SNP have also had a somewhat torrid time as a party with various scandals. I don't expect the LibDems to do anything in Scotland outside their usual Highland & Island haunts, plus a few like Edinburgh West.

See here i have to disagree with you.

There is not an iota of polling evidence to suggest that the left will fracture to Labour in Scotland, even before the last six months and the rise in the Lib Dem vote.
Original post by Burton Bridge
I apologise I got the wrong end of the stick, aka I did not read you're post properly.

I'm actually in agreement with you for most of your post, apart from 'nationalisation and fantasy economics'.

Apologies again

No worries, no need to apologise :smile:

We can agree to disagree on economics - I'm pretty third way.
Original post by Rakas21
Suprisingly last nights swings dont actually do a massive amount of damage in the south west, their gains get scattered around.

Its likely because of just how hard their vote fell in 2015.

See here i have to disagree with you.

There is not an iota of polling evidence to suggest that the left will fracture to Labour in Scotland, even before the last six months and the rise in the Lib Dem vote.

I could see the Lib Dems having an absolute stormer in unexpected areas. My constituency is a Labour-SNP toss-up (loving life as a unionist liberal haha) - however, the Liberal Democrats got the most votes in the EU elections. They're lucky if they win 10% of the vote here in a General Election - so that was very surprising.

There is quite a large pro-UK, pro-EU vote, which could be sucked up by the Liberals, as long as they don't go for a "Remain Alliance" with the SNP. The Union surely has to be the priority and if the Liberals don't run to allow the SNP to stand, then I'd have to consider voting Conservative, simply for the Union.
Original post by 123543
I could see the Lib Dems having an absolute stormer in unexpected areas. My constituency is a Labour-SNP toss-up (loving life as a unionist liberal haha) - however, the Liberal Democrats got the most votes in the EU elections. They're lucky if they win 10% of the vote here in a General Election - so that was very surprising.

There is quite a large pro-UK, pro-EU vote, which could be sucked up by the Liberals, as long as they don't go for a "Remain Alliance" with the SNP. The Union surely has to be the priority and if the Liberals don't run to allow the SNP to stand, then I'd have to consider voting Conservative, simply for the Union.

Lab constituencies in Scotland are interesting because bar Edinburgh they are all marginal to the SNP bar one which would go Tory.

I think that the SNP are perhaps more vulnerable to the Lib Dems because bar the union they are more similar in policy than the SNP are to Lab but even modelling a 10% rise in the Lib vote (basically tying with Lab around 18%) they only gain one extra seat. In cases like you allude to i suspect the Libs chomping the Lab vote will just let the SNP and Tories in.

Lab-Lib is definitely the battle to watch in Scotland. FPTP only really allows for sustainable 2.5 party politics so one of those two is surplus to requirements.
Original post by Rakas21
Lab constituencies in Scotland are interesting because bar Edinburgh they are all marginal to the SNP bar one which would go Tory.

I think that the SNP are perhaps more vulnerable to the Lib Dems because bar the union they are more similar in policy than the SNP are to Lab but even modelling a 10% rise in the Lib vote (basically tying with Lab around 18%) they only gain one extra seat. In cases like you allude to i suspect the Libs chomping the Lab vote will just let the SNP and Tories in.

Lab-Lib is definitely the battle to watch in Scotland. FPTP only really allows for sustainable 2.5 party politics so one of those two is surplus to requirements.

Yeah definitely agree - a lot of people are dissatisfied with the SNP's domestic programme up here, so I could see the Libs eating in to the SNP and Labour vote.

It will be interesting to see if the BP splits to Tory vote at all.
Original post by Rakas21
See here i have to disagree with you.

There is not an iota of polling evidence to suggest that the left will fracture to Labour in Scotland, even before the last six months and the rise in the Lib Dem vote.

Well, you could be right - I was projecting what I think is a trend, which is the weakening of the SNP post-referendum (after all, what are they for now exactly?) and what I always thought would be at least some revival in Labour. After all, Labour ruled greater Glasgow for a huge period of time - the SNP replaced them there because of dissatisfaction with Labour nationally - Blairism was too right wing or centrist - and the Labour Party in Glasgow had a history of corruption. Both have been dealt with and there's no real reason to continue to vote SNP other than the above. Hence the loss of seats back to Lab from the SNP in Glasgow last time. I can't be sure this will continue, but I imagine it will, at least to some extent. The other thing is that Alex Salmond was a really popular national figure in Scotland. Now he's a totally busted flush. His replacement has never been so popular.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Well, you could be right - I was projecting what I think is a trend, which is the weakening of the SNP post-referendum (after all, what are they for now exactly?) and what I always thought would be at least some revival in Labour. After all, Labour ruled greater Glasgow for a huge period of time - the SNP replaced them there because of dissatisfaction with Labour nationally - Blairism was too right wing or centrist - and the Labour Party in Glasgow had a history of corruption. Both have been dealt with and there's no real reason to continue to vote SNP other than the above. Hence the loss of seats back to Lab from the SNP in Glasgow last time. I can't be sure this will continue, but I imagine it will, at least to some extent. The other thing is that Alex Salmond was a really popular national figure in Scotland. Now he's a totally busted flush. His replacement has never been so popular.

The problem for Labour right now is that they occupy the wrong political position for any real national resurgance, especially being unionist.

While your correct on some of the causes of the initial SNP rise from Labour, circumstances (in particular the rise of the nationalist-unionist battle) have escaped them. With the Blairites and ex-Tories homeless the Scottish and EU referendums have both allowed the SNP and Tories to take a monopoly on each side of the spectrum (left-remain, right-leave) whereas before the union and EU was an issue the SNP occupied the more Lib Dem position in the center.

It is possible that in future the SNP may weaken sufficiently that Labour can force them out from the left but i don't see that anytime soon. All polling pre-March and now suggests the SNP are looking at Westminster gains in vote share (losses at Hollyrood but the 2016 base was 47%) and thats mainly at the expense of Lab.

At the next election i strongly suspect that the Brexit dynamic is going to push votes to SNP and Lib at the expense of Labour, the best chance for Labour in the long run is either for the Tories to unseat the SNP (difficult but you could squeeze out Con-Lib in Hollyrood for example) so that they dont have the platform of government (with less on the line in opposition, some SNP defectors may return) or for Corbyn to get a majority and do the things the left want (more likely he will betray the union for SNP votes).
Original post by Rakas21
The problem for Labour right now is that they occupy the wrong political position for any real national resurgance, especially being unionist.

While your correct on some of the causes of the initial SNP rise from Labour, circumstances (in particular the rise of the nationalist-unionist battle) have escaped them. With the Blairites and ex-Tories homeless the Scottish and EU referendums have both allowed the SNP and Tories to take a monopoly on each side of the spectrum (left-remain, right-leave) whereas before the union and EU was an issue the SNP occupied the more Lib Dem position in the center.

It is possible that in future the SNP may weaken sufficiently that Labour can force them out from the left but i don't see that anytime soon. All polling pre-March and now suggests the SNP are looking at Westminster gains in vote share (losses at Hollyrood but the 2016 base was 47%) and thats mainly at the expense of Lab.

At the next election i strongly suspect that the Brexit dynamic is going to push votes to SNP and Lib at the expense of Labour, the best chance for Labour in the long run is either for the Tories to unseat the SNP (difficult but you could squeeze out Con-Lib in Hollyrood for example) so that they dont have the platform of government (with less on the line in opposition, some SNP defectors may return) or for Corbyn to get a majority and do the things the left want (more likely he will betray the union for SNP votes).

Yep - could easily see Corbyn putting the union to the side to gain SNP votes, particularly given the political landscape.
Original post by 123543
Yep - could easily see Corbyn putting the union to the side to gain SNP votes, particularly given the political landscape.

I could easily see Corbyn doing anything to garner votes, not sure what happened to his much vaunted principles!
Original post by ColinDent
I could easily see Corbyn doing anything to garner votes, not sure what happened to his much vaunted principles!

As you know I'm not a Corbyn fan, I wish he was still on the back benches rebelling against everything and anything, however I do think he's been the victim of an immense smear campaign.
Original post by Burton Bridge
As you know I'm not a Corbyn fan, I wish he was still on the back benches rebelling against everything and anything, however I do think he's been the victim of an immense smear campaign.

The man has openly stated that he would tear the Falklands and Northern Ireland from us. Do you really believe that he would not grant the SNP their neverendum x2 if it gave him power.
Original post by Burton Bridge
As you know I'm not a Corbyn fan, I wish he was still on the back benches rebelling against everything and anything, however I do think he's been the victim of an immense smear campaign.

He hasn't had any mud thrown at him that doesn't stick so far as I'm concerned.
His brand of firebrand, brimstone and treacle politics is well past it's sell by date and simply does not hold up in the modern world, especially when he has consistently been shown up as a charlatan that will shift views at the drop of a hat if it will win him a few votes.
He lost my respect when he "backed" remain, that one act showed me just how important his principles are.

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