£ slumps 10% as Boris directly leads to inflation Watch

maachu_pichuu
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Tbh any rational person would have been shorting over the last few months knowing the hysteria that would come
Where do you see the bottom for sterling?
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Fullofsurprises
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#42
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#42
(Original post by maachu_pichuu)
Mogg (Somerset Capital Management) is shorting the pound, so is his friend Crispin Odey (Odey Asset Management)
Yes indeed. I'm sure Odey in particular will be on the right side as usual.

If the Bank tries to fight this with interest rate hikes, we will see a Black Friday-style massacre of Sterling presumably, although I think it could go down even further than it already has in the next few days/weeks anyway, regardless.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The poor are going to be absolutely hammered by Brexit. The biggest losers will be people in the coastal towns and depressed communities who voted for it. However, there will also be large unemployment surges in formerly relatively prosperous areas, such as the areas surrounding car and aviation plants and some people in London and the SE who relied on key UK industries. A lot of people who voted for Brexit are going to lose their livelihoods. This is not something by the way that I feel happy about.

I am uninterested in your stock positions.
I'm still intrigued by when we can expect the 6% contraction, half a million job losses, high inflation, and collapse in house prices that we were promised in 2016-18 after a simple vote to leave. Sterling is down, what, 30% since March 2016 and yet inflation has been well within the target range despite significant increases in oil prices (which tend to have a noticeable impact on inflation).

The predictions of economic doom from those who never wanted us to leave have so far been about as accurate as predictions of the apocalypse
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Jammy Duel
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#44
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(Original post by maachu_pichuu)
Where do you see the bottom for sterling?
Not sure, depends on how much people actually pay attention to economic data when it's published (last few years would suggest not a lot) and how reactionary the BoE is in November (2016 would suggest rather), maybe around the $1.10 and euro parity if they can keep fudging their figures to hide recession, I'd short until late September/early October
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Fullofsurprises
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#45
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
I'm still intrigued by when we can expect the 6% contraction, half a million job losses, high inflation, and collapse in house prices that we were promised in 2016-18 after a simple vote to leave. Sterling is down, what, 30% since March 2016 and yet inflation has been well within the target range despite significant increases in oil prices (which tend to have a noticeable impact on inflation).

The predictions of economic doom from those who never wanted us to leave have so far been about as accurate as predictions of the apocalypse
House prices are already contracting in London and what happens to prices in London always spreads, after a delay, to the rest of the UK.

The job losses from a Hard Brexit will be huge without any doubt whatsoever. This is one of those things where we don't really want proof. If you were boarding the Titanic and you were informed by the Captain it was certain to sink, you'd be well advised not to get on.
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999tigger
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(Original post by Notoriety)
Reduction in the pound is associated with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. It is not a direct reflection on the quality of BoJo.
As he is a driver of Brexit, then I think it is partly down to his actions.
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Jammy Duel
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#47
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
House prices are already contracting in London and what happens to prices in London always spreads, after a delay, to the rest of the UK.

The job losses from a Hard Brexit will be huge without any doubt whatsoever. This is one of those things where we don't really want proof. If you were boarding the Titanic and you were informed by the Captain it was certain to sink, you'd be well advised not to get on.
As I said, I'm still waiting for the half a million job losses that a vote to leave would cause, employment is up a million, not down half a million.
Similarly I await the 6% contraction, sadly that best case was wrong and we have grown 6%
A drop in house prices by a third has turned into real terms stagnation.

You say massive job losses as a result of hard brexit are a certainty, if I look back just over 3 years will I see you parotting the reports of deep recession and mass job losses as certainty? What is the most likely outcome through November? The same as through July 2016: those forecasting doom suddenly changing their forecasts and pretending they never predicted the end.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by 999tigger)
As he is a driver of Brexit, then I think it is partly down to his actions.
It is not tanking because the markets think he is incompetent, incapable of finding a good agreement -- it is the policy he represents. The title in the OP would should be "£ slumps 10% as possibility of No Deal directly leads to inflation". Suggesting it's directly down to Boris suggests it's some quality he has or more importantly that he lacks. That's not the case.
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999tigger
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I would imagine parts of the market do think that.
I cant take the title too seriously because of who wrote it.
I do think Boris is a direct driver of a no deal Brexit though.
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Fullofsurprises
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#50
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(Original post by 999tigger)
I cant take the title too seriously because of who wrote it.
I do think Boris is a direct driver of a no deal Brexit though.
What's wrong with the title then in that case?
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Notoriety)
It is not tanking because the markets think he is incompetent, incapable of finding a good agreement -- it is the policy he represents
They amount to the same thing in practise.
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999tigger
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I find your threads to have an agenda and be consistently bias or misleading.
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Fullofsurprises
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#53
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(Original post by 999tigger)
I find your threads to have an agenda and be consistently bias or misleading.
Boris's agenda since the moment he stood for this office was to push for Brexit at any cost. Now the £ is slumping and the result, as sure as night follows day, will be a big dose of inflation.

Where is that wrong exactly?
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Notoriety
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#54
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
They amount to the same thing in practise.
No, they don't.

Suppose that DC had won the argument on Brexit but decided enough was enough. BoJo wins the leadership contest. Would you predict the pound would slump by 10% as a direct result of Boris, in that case?

It's the specific policy, as espoused by Boris and others, and notably adopted by the British public in the referendum, which has caused the decrease in value of the pound.

(Original post by 999tigger)
I find your threads to have an agenda and be consistently bias or misleading.
Yeah. I can't work out if FoS likes winding people up with deliberately provocative headlines or if she actually believes what she posts.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Notoriety)
No, they don't.

Suppose that DC had won the argument on Brexit but decided enough was enough. BoJo wins the leadership contest. Would you predict the pound would slump by 10% as a direct result of Boris, in that case?

It's the specific policy, as espoused by Boris and others, and notably adopted by the British public in the referendum, which has caused the decrease in value of the pound.

Yeah. I can't work out if FoS likes winding people up with deliberately provocative headlines or if she actually believes what she posts.
I'm allowed a good eye catching headline. How else does one rise above the herd?

It's really too much to pretend that what's happening now is all some kind of fluke and nothing to do with Boris. The whole thing is down to Boris and his rampant narcissistic egoism. It was down to Boris that we got Leave - he made it respectable - even though he was privately a Remainer and said as much. He wanted above all to do his old enemy Dave down and see himself replace him. He's got what he wanted - the price will be the economy and the well being of millions of Britons.

Saying it's nothing to do with him is a much bigger distortion and lie than my headline.
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Tommiebee
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Further weakening of the pound will just push up cost-push inflation further, as the rising price of inputs for import-reliant UK businesses is pushed onto the consumer in the form of higher prices.
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999tigger
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(Original post by Notoriety)
Yeah. I can't work out if FoS likes winding people up with deliberately provocative headlines or if she actually believes what she posts.
I try and avoid for the most part. same as that Oxbridge thread and the Pisa one. Waste of energy. Brexit is a big risk and a massive unknown. I hope the UK is ok. Cant say i'm a fan of people who run it down either.
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Quady
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(Original post by maachu_pichuu)
Royal Dutch Shell earn in US Dollars mostly, so a Sterling fall benefits them.
So why did the other poster say shares fall too?
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Quady
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#59
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(Original post by maachu_pichuu)
The £ will always be strong under a conservative government that is pro business, we are just dealing with a messy divorce here which is hammering the currency. The problem like you say is we import more than we should, I don't think many poor people can afford a 10-15% rise in food costs. This will hurt discretionary spending and possibly send us into recession.

I manage a portfolio of stocks worth around £100,000, half of which are in US dollars. I benefit from the £ weakening, although I need to keep some UK stocks if the £ strengthens after brexit.
Demonstrably untrue.

Sterling:dollar was weakest six years into a conservative government.

Sterling fell out of the ERM die to it's weakness 11 years into a conservative government.

The pound hit a 26 year high under the last Labour government.
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
As I said, I'm still waiting for the half a million job losses that a vote to leave would cause, employment is up a million, not down half a million.
Similarly I await the 6% contraction, sadly that best case was wrong and we have grown 6%
A drop in house prices by a third has turned into real terms stagnation.

You say massive job losses as a result of hard brexit are a certainty, if I look back just over 3 years will I see you parotting the reports of deep recession and mass job losses as certainty? What is the most likely outcome through November? The same as through July 2016: those forecasting doom suddenly changing their forecasts and pretending they never predicted the end.
For the simple reason of we have not left yet. Under a May government there did not really seem a chance of leaving without at least a deal, however under Johnson this is not the case. The man is stupid enough to bring us out without a deal and everybody in business knows that.


This is the first red flag so to speak, and again, I reiterate we have not left. When we leave, job losses aplenty and pound crashing more, mark my words now. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, but logically the economy will suffer, so as a direct result so will jobs, and the ironic thing, the poor will suffer the most, and it was they that voted for this... laughable really.
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