Article 370 and Article 35 Abolished by Indian Gov for Jammu and Kashmir Watch

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#21
An interesting post a friend of mine in the Indian defence establishment wrote concerning Pakistans response, thus far, to this development;
To my Pakistani friends chest thumping for war since monday.. we can understand your emotions but peace should prevail.. Paks external debt is $105 Billion.. Pak exports $24 Billion.. imports $52 Billion.. deficit $28 Billion..

Pak has to pay $37 Billion to IMF in 39 months.. starting July 2019.. it's $948 Million per month or $31.6 million per day.. this amount is principal debt for loans taken before 2018.. IMF will not bail out Pak if this deadline is not met.. unfortunately IMF Chief Economist is Indian so can't expect leniency..

Pakistan owes $19 Billion to China.. interest rate at least 4.5%.. Gulf loan interest rates are not more than 3%.. Japan's interest rate is 0.1%.. China is just exploiting the debt vulnerability of Pak to convert debt to equity.. Chinese lenders will take away Pak ports n mines as they did in Sri Lanka..

Pak cannot rely on its classical insurgency and terrorism policy.. it's on the FATF grey list for terror financing and money laundering.. it needs to implement 18 of 27 conditions to exit grey list.. if Pak does not complies then it will remain in grey list and IMF will stop all incoming international loans.. if it does any misadventure it will be demoted to black list and UN sanctions will be imposed..

If Pak wants to challenge India's decision in UNSC then it should first answer why it never complied with UNSC 1948 resolution.. Pak deliberately stalled handover of PoK to India since 7 decades.. Pak should first fullfil its 1948 resolution obligations to UNSC for it to be heard.. in alignment with 1972 Shimla agreement..

It costs at least $1 Million to fly one squadron of jets for 10 hours.. Either Pak will run out of funds mid war or will request ceasefire n UN intervention after few days.. in both cases it will not have upper hand on the negotiation table.. status quo will be enforced by UN n borders will not change.. but its debt hole will become deeper..

India is not interested in war yet again.. if Pak starts war it will be the aggressor n will attract sanctions n leftover foreign investments will also dry.. post war only China will be the sole lender to Pak.. China will have monopoly in interest rates.. Pakistan can suspend trade with India but it should ensure it doesn't gives that market share to China for its own good.. China will pump money till Paks debt surpasses it's GDP.. Pak is on course to become China's 24th province unless it realigns it's national interests n objectives..

Whether you like it or not.. Pakistan is not in position to start sustain or end war financially militarily and diplomatically..
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