This discussion is closed.
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#261
Report 11 years ago
#261
(Original post by Made in the USA)
Serene, McCain isn't a fool for saying we aren't headed for a recession, unless you think some of the world's most famous and widely-respected economists are fools for saying the same thing. Do you know what a recession is? To save you the trouble of looking it up, a recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth. This hasn't happened yet, and I don't see why you think it's stupid to suggest it may not happen. Many economists think it may not happen.

Edward Leamer received a B.A. degree in mathematics from Princeton University and a Ph.D. degree in economics and an M.A. degree in mathematics from the University of Michigan. He is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. I think I'll take his word over yours about what's going on with the US economy
Well that's a bit out of date - it was published in March. Around January this year, we were still debating about decoupling. Even when I was interning at an investment bank this march, my MD (working in pan-european equities) was still sceptical about decoupling. There's no doubt now that EU25 and Asia has largely decoupled from the U.S., and we are not looking at a year end recovery.

The US economy is going to be dictated by three things, the housing slump, the credit crisis, and the rising energy cost. Unfortunately for the US however, their economy is quite inefficient compared to Euroland and Japan for GDP per energy usage. But China has it worst.

You should read your article again. It says that even Goldman Sachs has called for a recession. If you have research notes delivered to you daily and you still recall, Morgan Stanley was the first bank that called for a US recession. The crisis in the financial sector has been partly saved by the aggressive action of Bernanke, and his handling of Bear Sterns deserves praise (just think of all the OTC instruments if Bear Sterns collapsed "just like that"...)

As far as people in the industry are concerned, we are already in a recession. Incidentally, Merrill published this note sometime February this year.
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#262
Report 11 years ago
#262
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
I honestly cannot, given you are a crazy Obama supporter, really be arguing the experience card.
To be honest, Obama is not an ideal choice for president as well, and experience is important. My ideal choice will be people like Bloomberg, Soros or Blankfein. Soros and Blankfein are really sharp in particular, but Soros may be too liberal. Coming from an M&A background Paulson is really not that great.

John McCain has a largely irrelevant set of experience, like fighting in a war with the Communist. And his knowledge of the economy is so weak that I dare say most interns can trump him on this front.
0
PeeWeeDan
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#263
Report Thread starter 11 years ago
#263
(Original post by s.e.r.e.n.e)
To be honest, Obama is not an ideal choice for president as well, and experience is important. My ideal choice will be people like Bloomberg, Soros or Blankfein. Soros and Blankfein are really sharp in particular, but Soros may be too liberal. Coming from an M&A background Paulson is really not that great.

John McCain has a largely irrelevant set of experience, like fighting in a war with the Communist. And his knowledge of the economy is so weak that I dare say most interns can trump him on this front.

You are missing the point of John McCain's war experience. The fact that he, given the choice of being released, refused because others had been captive for longer. It shows real character. In any case, he has god knows how many years as a senator. He replaced Goldwater for gods sake! That was a long time ago. Surely that experience says something?
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#264
Report 11 years ago
#264
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
You are missing the point of John McCain's war experience. The fact that he, given the choice of being released, refused because others had been captive for longer. It shows real character. In any case, he has god knows how many years as a senator. He replaced Goldwater for gods sake! That was a long time ago. Surely that experience says something?
Why don't I phrase this in another way: John McCain's greatest experience is riding a plane and getting shot down due to incompetence, having graduated near the bottom of his class, and spending the next five years idling somewhere in Vietnam and letting his braincells rot.

Don't take this seriously...

Anyway, John McCain's experience is not really relevant. If he has experience on working at prop. trading desks for 10 years dealing with FI products than those experience are relevant. But he is not. I guarantee you he has zero understanding of all the recent financial innovations (he may not even know what a swap is, which is scary...). In a time of economic turmoil he is the wrong choice for America. Rationally speaking, Hillary Clinton is a better choice than Obama and McCain, but Obama can be equally good in handling the economy, , given that his IQ shoots right up the roof and a right team of experts.
0
PeeWeeDan
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#265
Report Thread starter 11 years ago
#265
So you think caring about your nation and it's principles so much that you will spend extra years as a prisoner of war to uphold it's moral code is not a valid addition to a character. He showed damn good character, that is all I am saying, and disagree with it, is absolute idiocy.

As a (LONG TIME) senator he has much more experience than 0. Ergo, he has much more experience than Obama. Obama did drugs when he was young, want to throw that in his face too? McCain has shown his competence from years of being a senator, he doesn't need a degree to show it. His poor performance in classes are entirely irrelevent, they were a long time ago, and more recently he has shown great strength and leadership. Also why do you assume that Obama can hire good advisers while McCain can't when Obama's advisers are frankly pathetic. Zbigniew Brzezinski comes to mind.
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#266
Report 11 years ago
#266
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
So you think caring about your nation and it's principles so much that you will spend extra years as a prisoner of war to uphold it's moral code is not a valid addition to a character. He showed damn good character, that is all I am saying, and disagree with it, is absolute idiocy.

As a (LONG TIME) senator he has much more experience than 0. Ergo, he has much more experience than Obama. Obama did drugs when he was young, want to throw that in his face too? McCain has shown his competence from years of being a senator, he doesn't need a degree to show it. His poor performance in classes are entirely irrelevent, they were a long time ago, and more recently he has shown great strength and leadership. Also why do you assume that Obama can hire good advisers while McCain can't when Obama's advisers are frankly pathetic. Zbigniew Brzezinski comes to mind.
If there is one thing that George Bush's presidency has taught us, it is incompetenc. Unfortunately, John McCain has a track record of incompetence.

If only people like Bloomberg (which apparently you support), Soros, Mitt Romney, Blankfein, etc., can become the next US president...
0
Teofilo
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#267
Report 11 years ago
#267
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
You are missing the point of John McCain's war experience. The fact that he, given the choice of being released, refused because others had been captive for longer. It shows real character. In any case, he has god knows how many years as a senator. He replaced Goldwater for gods sake! That was a long time ago. Surely that experience says something?
What McCain did in Vietnam is of course admirable and not to be looked down upon, but, as SERENE has correctly stated, irrelevant in the current campaign. How it can be related to why he is more qualified than Barack Obama to be president is totally beyond me. Physical courage and moral courage under pressure are two distinct qualities that should not be confused.

His experience in the Senate is of infintely more value and relevance to this campaign.

To be honest, given his explosive temper, the prospect of McCain making a major decision in a tense situation actually scares me to be honest.

What examples would you sight of McCain's "great leadership" BTW PeeWeeDan? I would have accepted the McCain-Feinstein campaign reform bill as an example up to about 6 months ago.
0
PeeWeeDan
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#268
Report Thread starter 11 years ago
#268
(Original post by s.e.r.e.n.e)
If there is one thing that George Bush's presidency has taught us, it is incompetenc. Unfortunately, John McCain has a track record of incompetence.

If only people like Bloomberg (which apparently you support), Soros, Mitt Romney, Blankfein, etc., can become the next US president...
Well that was unsubstantiated ****. You can do so much better.

What McCain did in Vietnam is of course admirable and not to be looked down upon, but, as SERENE has correctly stated, irrelevant in the current campaign. How it can be related to why he is more qualified than Barack Obama to be president is totally beyond me. Physical courage and moral courage under pressure are two distinct qualities that should not be confused.

His experience in the Senate is of infintely more value and relevance to this campaign.

To be honest, given his explosive temper, the prospect of McCain making a major decision in a tense situation actually scares me to be honest.

What examples would you sight of McCain's "great leadership" BTW PeeWeeDan? I would have accepted the McCain-Feinstein campaign reform bill as an example up to about 6 months ago.
Are you saying character isn't an important factor in a presidential campaign? In any case, I'm not an expert on this part of politics, but I'm sure McCain did some bipartisan bills, surely that shows balls? What I'm trying to say is that McCain has SOME viable experience, which automatically trumps Obama, who is about as qualified to run for president as I am to run for President of the Palestinian Authority.
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#269
Report 11 years ago
#269
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
As a (LONG TIME) senator he has much more experience than 0. Ergo, he has much more experience than Obama. Obama did drugs when he was young, want to throw that in his face too? McCain has shown his competence from years of being a senator, he doesn't need a degree to show it. His poor performance in classes are entirely irrelevent, they were a long time ago, and more recently he has shown great strength and leadership. Also why do you assume that Obama can hire good advisers while McCain can't when Obama's advisers are frankly pathetic. Zbigniew Brzezinski comes to mind.
Well there will be a clear distinction come this November. Elect 42 year old who graduated near the top of his Harvard Law class and offers change, or elect a 72 year old veteran who graduated near the bottom of his class, and who wants to double down on George Bush's failed Iraq and economic policies...
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#270
Report 11 years ago
#270
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
Well that was unsubstantiated ****. You can do so much better.
I thought you like Bloomberg and Soros?
0
Teofilo
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#271
Report 11 years ago
#271
(Original post by Made in the USA)
This has to be a planned and rehearsed hatchet job. Clark even updated his Facebook status to “Wes Clark knows that John McCain is largely untested and untried when it comes to matters of national security.” You know it's planned because Obama didn't fire Clark after the comments. Geraldine Ferraro had to resign her position in the Hillary Clinton campaign after suggesting that the only reason Obama was even a contender is because he's black. That's usually what happens when a surrogate steps out of line and says the wrong thing. Not only is Clark refusing to apologize, but he is still repeating the comments every time he's in front of a camera, with Obama basically winking and nodding.
What does Clark have to appologize for? All he said was that McCain's service in Vietnam was not a qualification to be president. He didn't disrespect his service or belittle it. Don't try to spin it into something it's not please.

A more apt comparison would actually be to the comments made by Charlie Black, McCain's chief political strategist, when he told FORTUNE that another terrorist attack would benefit McCain. Like Clark's comment, Black's comment was true, but also said in the wrong way/context and a bit naive. Did McCain fire Charlie Black? My *******s he did (nor should he have).

And Wesley Clark has Facebook?
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#272
Report 11 years ago
#272
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
Are you saying character isn't an important factor in a presidential campaign? In any case, I'm not an expert on this part of politics, but I'm sure McCain did some bipartisan bills, surely that shows balls? What I'm trying to say is that McCain has SOME viable experience, which automatically trumps Obama, who is about as qualified to run for president as I am to run for President of the Palestinian Authority.
Did you attend Harvard/Princeton/Yale/etc ? How many best sellers have you authored? Are you in the senate/parliament now?
0
PeeWeeDan
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#273
Report Thread starter 11 years ago
#273
(Original post by s.e.r.e.n.e)
I thought you like Bloomberg and Soros?
Dunno where you have that from, because I haven't talked to you about either, but I'm a relatively fond of the idea of Bloomberg going into politics, despite not being entirely informed on his political beliefs.

Did you attend Harvard/Princeton/Yale/etc ? How many best sellers have you authored? Are you in the senate/parliament now?

Good lord, it was hyperbole. And no, being in Senate for (4?) years is not sufficient to be president. It's damn impressive, but not good enough frankly. I think (not entirely sure, and you can contradict me on this) he would be the most inexperienced president the US ever had. Speaking of years in high leveled position(Governor, Senator, VP etc.)
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#274
Report 11 years ago
#274
(Original post by Teofilo)
A more apt comparison would actually be to the comments made by Charlie Black, McCain's chief political strategist, when he told FORTUNE that another terrorist attack would benefit McCain. Like Clark's comment, Black's comment was true, but also said in the wrong way/context and a bit naive. Did McCain fire Charlie Black? My *******s he did (nor should he have).
This is actually very true. But I'm sure that Osama bin Laden will be smart enough not to organise an attack before the election.
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#275
Report 11 years ago
#275
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
Dunno where you have that from, because I haven't talked to you about either, but I'm a relatively fond of the idea of Bloomberg going into politics, despite not being entirely informed on his political beliefs.
Bloomberg is really an ideal choice.
0
Teofilo
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#276
Report 11 years ago
#276
(Original post by s.e.r.e.n.e)
This is actually very true. But I'm sure that Osama bin Laden will be smart enough not to organise an attack before the election.
Of course it's very true. It was also a very stupid thing to say in public.
0
Teofilo
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#277
Report 11 years ago
#277
(Original post by PeeWeeDan)
Good lord, it was hyperbole. And no, being in Senate for (4?) years is not sufficient to be president. It's damn impressive, but not good enough frankly. I think (not entirely sure, and you can contradict me on this) he would be the most inexperienced president the US ever had. Speaking of years in high leveled position(Governor, Senator, VP etc.)
If experience was the only factor involved in selecting a president, why even have an election then? An election is about ideas and policies, rather than just "I've been in the Senate for longer than you have; thus, I am automatically president."

Given that this presidential election will ultimately come down to a referendum on whether the American electorate is comfortable enough to vote for Obama, I was encouraged (and rather surprised) to find that a poll over the Independence Day weekend showed a majority of people would rather have Obama at their BBQ than McCain (52% to 45% I think it was).
0
s.e.r.e.n.e
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#278
Report 11 years ago
#278
(Original post by Teofilo)
If experience was the only factor involved in selecting a president, why even have an election then? An election is about ideas and policies, rather than just "I've been in the Senate for longer than you have; thus, I am automatically president."

Given that this presidential election will ultimately come down to a referendum on whether the American electorate is comfortable enough to vote for Obama, I was encouraged (and rather surprised) to find that a poll over the Independence Day weekend showed a majority of people would rather have Obama at their BBQ than McCain (52% to 45% I think it was).
The chance of Obama winning this november is around 80-90%. It is 2 to 3 times that of Kerry in 04.
0
Teofilo
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#279
Report 11 years ago
#279
(Original post by s.e.r.e.n.e)
The chance of Obama winning this november is around 80-90%. It is 2 to 3 times that of Kerry in 04.
If the election were held tommorrow, those %'s would probably be about right. There's a lot of water to pass under the bridge before November though, which makes those types of %'s a bit on the optimistic side. 60-65% for me.

Bookies have it at about 72% chance BTW if you want to put your money on Obama!
0
Made in the USA
Badges: 11
Rep:
?
#280
Report 11 years ago
#280
(Original post by s.e.r.e.n.e)
As far as people in the industry are concerned, we are already in a recession. Incidentally, Merrill published this note sometime February this year.
We're not in a recession, serene, because we have not yet had a two quarters of negative GDP growth. If Obama gets elected and doubles the capital gains tax, that will probably push us into a recession, but for now GDP is still growing at a slow pace. Neither candidate knows as much about economics as he should. Greenspan endorsed McCain and I have yet to see any economist get behind Obama.
0
X
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

How has the start of this academic year been for you?

Loving it - gonna be a great year (109)
17.99%
It's just nice to be back! (163)
26.9%
Not great so far... (217)
35.81%
I want to drop out! (117)
19.31%

Watched Threads

View All