2019 U.K. general election predictions Watch

Alt Tankie
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Probable U.K. Election

Tory- 295 Seats 31%
Labour 223 seats 25%
SNP 41 seats 4%
Liberal + CUK 38 seats 17%
Brexit 13 Seats 16%
DUP 12 Seats 1%
Sinn Fein 10 Seats 1%
Plaid 6 Seats 2%
SDLP 4 Seats 1%
Green Party 3 Seats 4%
Alliance 2 Seats

(This is based on the assumption that Lib Dem’s, CUKs, SNP, Plaid and Greens work tactically as they did in the Welsh by election)

Tories lose all Scottish seats to Lib Dems and snp, labour loses some north and welsh seats to Brexit party and plaid: Tories keep only one seat in Wales.

Tories gain some seats off labour in England but lose some to Lib Dem’s as do labour. Tory and labour vote increases in safe seats but do less well on marginals.

Lib Dem’s triple their seats and gain extra defectors from other parties but actually underperformed and owe much of their success to a resurgent Brexit party costing Tory MPs in former Lib Dem constituencies their votes.
Last edited by Alt Tankie; 1 month ago
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Alt Tankie
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Outcome:

A minority conservative government takes Britain out of the EU without a deal. There is a moderate deal of chaos but things generally carry on as normal for the bulk of the population.

Tories: most outright dissenters have left but some remain and cause problems for the Boris administration similar to that which Corbyn faced in his early days. He remains relatively popular although his government and party are not and is sinking in the polls

Labour: Corbyn agrees to steps down and after another leadership election labour announced its first female leader: Angela Raynor who pledges to hold a second referendum and work tactically with other parties. Labour vote steadily declines.

Brexit, Lib Dem and Green parties - continue to grow as the political discourse becomes more polarised. All three do very well in the next lot of local elections.
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username4911280
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You seem to be working on the assumption that a general election would occur before October 31st. I would wager that if we have a GE in 2019, it would be after the date. If Boris delivers a deal then he will capitalise on the moment by calling an early vote. If Boris gets no deal then he'll probably be forced to a general election anyway due to his majority of 1.

I agree Lib Dems may gain seats but with Jo Swinson's recent power struggle + the fact that Change UK have sorta flopped in making a major impact, 38 seats seems rather generous. Also, what two seats would Green gain?

And perhaps the biggest question is why the Brexit party would win 13 seats? EU seats don't always translate to parliament, and considering they are a single issue party they wouldn't be a viable choice after October 31.

As for the major parties, I can definitely see no majority in the event of no deal. I feel like the Tories would likely win more seats than you're proposing but I feel like Labour's number is fairly accurate. Corbyn wouldn't be able to form a stable coalition. With your numbers, he would have to have a coalition with literally every party apart from Tories/DUP/Brexit (who would never join them).

So overall, I'd say that the Tories probably enter a coalition or win a small majority. If Boris gets a deal through (and I think he will) then he could get a sizable majority.

It's all speculation though!
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Alt Tankie
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(Original post by _polaroid)
You seem to be working on the assumption that a general election would occur before October 31st. I would wager that if we have a GE in 2019, it would be after the date. If Boris delivers a deal then he will capitalise on the moment by calling an early vote. If Boris gets no deal then he'll probably be forced to a general election anyway due to his majority of 1.

I agree Lib Dems may gain seats but with Jo Swinson's recent power struggle + the fact that Change UK have sorta flopped in making a major impact, 38 seats seems rather generous. Also, what two seats would Green gain?

And perhaps the biggest question is why the Brexit party would win 13 seats? EU seats don't always translate to parliament, and considering they are a single issue party they wouldn't be a viable choice after October 31.

As for the major parties, I can definitely see no majority in the event of no deal. I feel like the Tories would likely win more seats than you're proposing but I feel like Labour's number is fairly accurate. Corbyn wouldn't be able to form a stable coalition. With your numbers, he would have to have a coalition with literally every party apart from Tories/DUP/Brexit (who would never join them).

So overall, I'd say that the Tories probably enter a coalition or win a small majority. If Boris gets a deal through (and I think he will) then he could get a sizable majority.

It's all speculation though!
Thanks for the reply. I’m working on the assumption that Boris will be forced into a general election before we can leave without a deal.

What jo Swinson power struggle? I think that there would be some, maybe a dozen defections from Tories and CUK en masse in a recent election. Though saying that I could picture Soubry willing to go down rather than join the Lib Dem’s. I can see them winning a lot if their old seats back.

Brexit party- labour has succumbed to remain and the Tory party is still trying to maintain unity. If Boris amplified his rhetoric on immigration maybe he could win those Brexit seats but may lose more to the Lib Dem’s. The Brexit party is definitely the wild card option though. As things stand now, I think that’s a reasonable expectation if they are competent which they appear to be.

Although Brexit is their main purpose- this will take years for us to fully regain independence. Also they will probably morph into a populist party like maybe AFD or something which there is a market for.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
Thanks for the reply. I’m working on the assumption that Boris will be forced into a general election before we can leave without a deal.

What jo Swinson power struggle? I think that there would be some, maybe a dozen defections from Tories and CUK en masse in a recent election. Though saying that I could picture Soubry willing to go down rather than join the Lib Dem’s. I can see them winning a lot if their old seats back.

Brexit party- labour has succumbed to remain and the Tory party is still trying to maintain unity. If Boris amplified his rhetoric on immigration maybe he could win those Brexit seats but may lose more to the Lib Dem’s. The Brexit party is definitely the wild card option though. As things stand now, I think that’s a reasonable expectation if they are competent which they appear to be.

Although Brexit is their main purpose- this will take years for us to fully regain independence. Also they will probably morph into a populist party like maybe AFD or something which there is a market for.
What do you think about
A) Caretaker government seek extension to article 50 then trigger election
B) The queen steps in to prevent Boris disolving parliament allowing the clock to run out?
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random_matt
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(Original post by ByEeek)
What do you think about
A) Caretaker government seek extension to article 50 then trigger election
B) The queen steps in to prevent Boris disolving parliament allowing the clock to run out?
The queen would never go against the public.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by random_matt)
The queen would never go against the public.
But in the case of Boris disolving parliament to allow the clock to run down, he is going against the public. Power lies with parliament and parliament is directly accountable to us, the public. It is funny how something is only democratic if it goes your way.
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random_matt
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(Original post by ByEeek)
But in the case of Boris disolving parliament to allow the clock to run down, he is going against the public. Power lies with parliament and parliament is directly accountable to us, the public. It is funny how something is only democratic if it goes your way.
The last sentence can be applied equally the other way.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by random_matt)
The last sentence can be applied equally the other way.
Agreed. But referendum or not, power in this country lies in parliament, not with Boris. To undermine parliament in this country is to undermine democracy.

That said I have accepted the sh1t storm that is about to rain down. My feeling is that the Tories should stay in power to lie in the turd pile they have created. Thankfully when my wife has retrained as a nurse we will be in a good position to emigrate elsewhere. The UK is going to be finished. The only thing to look forward to is chlorinated chicken and cheap GM [email protected] the US can't sell at home.
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Alt Tankie
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(Original post by ByEeek)
What do you think about
A) Caretaker government seek extension to article 50 then trigger election
B) The queen steps in to prevent Boris disolving parliament allowing the clock to run out?
I would be utterly astounded if either were to happen.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
I would be utterly astounded if either were to happen.
So you would be happy for Boris to disband parliament in the most undemocratic way?
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Onde
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35% chance of David Attenborough overthrowing the Queen and bringing about an elective monarchy
20% chance of Nigel Farage emigrating to Germany
11% chance of the Newport Pagnell Rebellion
10% chance that the Pound is replaced by Dogecoin
8% chance of the United Kingdom forming a new country with the Netherlands
6% chance of Icelandic invasion
5% chance Yorkshire declares independence
4% chance of the Archbishop of Canterbury changing the national religion to Ed Sheeran
2% chance of a rounding error
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Alt Tankie
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(Original post by ByEeek)
So you would be happy for Boris to disband parliament in the most undemocratic way?
Personally I wouldn’t particularly care. But I’m not basing this on what I want to happen but what I think is going to happen.

I can’t see the queen getting involved in virtually any circumstances.

A unity government may have been possible under slightly different circumstances but is next to impossible due to a a huge array of barriers, chief being terror of a Corbyn government by prominent Remainers.
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
Outcome:

A minority conservative government takes Britain out of the EU without a deal. There is a moderate deal of chaos but things generally carry on as normal for the bulk of the population.
I don't see how you can draw this conclusion from your own numbers...


If your numbers were true, then potential leave parties would have 308 seats, compared to 336 for remain-leaning parties. So even if you optimistically presume that all the torries will get behind Boris and back a no-deal (which they wont), you still don't have the numbers to get a no-deal through parliament.

For me, I think your numbers are close, but to optimistic for the tories. My feeling is that we will see an incredibly fractured vote, but from the fractures a 'remain-coalition' of the Lib-dems, Labor, and SNP will end up as the largest block. The Brexit party will split the tory vote, leading to a lot of what we have already seen in the past 2 by-elections, a majority voting for leave-parties, but in the end remain parties winning due to being more unified behind a single candidate.
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Alt Tankie
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ByEeek my ideal election result would probably be:

Labour: 270
Brexit: 260
SNP:59
Plaid: 32
Sinn Fein: 28
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Rakas21
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I'll post a prediction when not on the phone but the Scottish prediction is off, the Lib Dem's are nowhere close to gaining another seat outside North East Fife.

What might potentially occur is that the Lib Dem vote in unionist seats goes up 10% and hands the SNP Tory and Lab seats.

Scottish Tory vote itself (though we have not had a post-Boris Scottish poll yet) is relatively safe because Scottish 2017 Tory voters actually supported Brexit and Boris in sub-samples.

Even in the worst case June Scottish poll (pre-Boris) the Tories would have held half their seats.
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Alt Tankie
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
I don't see how you can draw this conclusion from your own numbers...


If your numbers were true, then potential leave parties would have 308 seats, compared to 336 for remain-leaning parties. So even if you optimistically presume that all the torries will get behind Boris and back a no-deal (which they wont), you still don't have the numbers to get a no-deal through parliament.

For me, I think your numbers are close, but to optimistic for the tories. My feeling is that we will see an incredibly fractured vote, but from the fractures a 'remain-coalition' of the Lib-dems, Labor, and SNP will end up as the largest block. The Brexit party will split the tory vote, leading to a lot of what we have already seen in the past 2 by-elections, a majority voting for leave-parties, but in the end remain parties winning due to being more unified behind a single candidate.
By my calculations on the above numbers a con, brexit and DUP coalition is 320 and are far more likely to work together than a Remain alliance centred on Corbyn’s Labour Party.

You also have a coalition of losers taking power over the biggest party being problematic too.
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Alt Tankie
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I'll post a prediction when not on the phone but the Scottish prediction is off, the Lib Dem's are nowhere close to gaining another seat outside North East Fife.

What might potentially occur is that the Lib Dem vote in unionist seats goes up 10% and hands the SNP Tory and Lab seats.

Scottish Tory vote itself (though we have not had a post-Boris Scottish poll yet) is relatively safe because Scottish 2017 Tory voters actually supported Brexit and Boris in sub-samples.

Even in the worst case June Scottish poll (pre-Boris) the Tories would have held half their seats.
Are you referring to just Scotland or the U.K. as a whole RE Lib Dem’s not gaining.

Your point re Lib Dem’s boosting the SNP is plausible.

Iirc I read a piece on conservativeHome about Scottish Tory voters detesting Johnson. I know Ruth davidson isn’t a fan.,
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
I would be utterly astounded if either were to happen.
Point 2 - plus 1 thats for the birds!

(Original post by ByEeek)
So you would be happy for Boris to disband parliament in the most undemocratic way?
That's not what he said, what one would be astounded at is not necessarily what one would be happy or unhappy with.
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Burton Bridge
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I honestly don't know, we are in unprecedented times. Normality when a government in on this chaos you exoect the opposition to wipe them out, that's not going to happen.

I'm sorry there are tooany variables to make a prediction at the moment
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