Is Boris preparing to suspend British democracy? Watch

Qup
Badges: 14
Rep:
?
#61
Report 3 weeks ago
#61
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It wasn't the result of a splendid democratic process. It was completely manipulated by a narrow slice of billionaire global finance capital interests and implemented by internal traitors like the Tory Right and the current PM, who lied and lied about our true interests.
...do you really believe that?
0
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#62
Report Thread starter 3 weeks ago
#62
(Original post by Qup)
...do you really believe that?
I do believe there was a sustained campaign of interference and manipulation from both the US and Russia, as well as offshore oligarchs, sufficient to regard the result as completely unsafe. Putin and Trump were both delighted when the Brexit result came in, they both had close links with Farage and Arron Banks, Farage's best mate, met with the Russian embassy 11 times during the campaign - if you aren't asking why, there is something wrong.
0
reply
nulli tertius
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#63
Report 3 weeks ago
#63
(Original post by Rakas21)
I don't believe this is credible much like other notions such as setting the election date on or beyond the 31st. These are ideas which are primarily brought up party via remoaner fear and partly to appease the hard skeptics who he needs until has a decent majority.

His real plan is not hard to fathom when you follow his actions. It is simply to wait until he is attacked (via a MoNC or parliament amending the order paper to pass another extention) and then have an election in which he is able to claim that his opponents in parliament are the enemies of the people (a rallying cry to Brx Party supporters that he needs). Faced with the Lib Dem's outright backing revoke (Corbyn will have a vague neverendum in circumstances policy) and the Tories saying exactly what Farage wants to hear, the potential for a relative swing to the Tories is fairly significant (Lib Dem's take 10%, Brx Takes 5%, Con-Lab gap grows 5% and all marginals fall to Boris).

There are really only 3.5 threats to Brexit and timing also plays its part.

1) The MoNC - Boris has an effective majority of 6-12 when you play around based on the Jan Monc. The number of likely Tory betrayals is 6-13 based on Brexit votes.

This is slightly messy because if he loses he gets to play his card but Corbyn could be portrayed as a cheerleader to the anti-Tories/Leave. Equally if Boris survives, Corbyn looks utterly stupid and the Liberals/CUK will see him as flaccid and potentially attack Labour.

This is likely to happen quickly before the conference recess so the 3rd-13th September.

2) Speaker/Statute - The Speaker will allow Cooper-Letwin to try force another extention. This is more likely to pass than the Monc because CUK and Tories are more comfortable with it.

Current rumours are that this attempt will occur on Monday September 9th (suggesting they have wrote off the MoNC being successful) which Downing Street may play to if successful. There are rumors that if it were to pass Boris would immediately call an election setting the date to coincide with the EU summit on the 17th-18th (this is slightly messy again because polls would close at 10pm on the 18th so he would have to (on the basis of the exit poll) be very confident of a majority and immediately get on a plane and demand the backstop gone with his new mandate and parliament onside (the EU may have to extend the summit a day i suspect).

The caveat here is that timing is important. This is constitutionally likely to be the one chance they get to force the situation. By going early they prevent Boris having a post-Brexit election date but they also reduce the pressure on Tory remainers to vote for something 7 weeks out rather than trying it when negotiations have clearly failed so far in October.

3) Revoke - As is says on the tin a bill to repeal article 50 will come before parliament if the other options have failed, likely on the 31st for maximum pressure on MP's.

This attempt i am confident in saying will fail given that Lab and Tory remainers would actually have to put their fingerprints on the murder weapon and give Boris a massive gift for the ensuing election that would occur. With most MP's valuing their careers, there is little to no chance that parliament has that hard a spine.

..

Despite being a betting man things are too uncertain for me to put money on an outcome (though exciting) however as per my comments above i suspect that a MoNC will fall short (i put the odds at about 60% against) as would revoke.

Do i think that Boris can ride out the situation though. Probably not. Therefore i suspect that the attempt to try force an extension will succeed and that we go to the polls in a general election on the 24th October (i don't think Boris needs to actually use the summit and the closer to the date, the more he can play to the Brexit Party and the more the Liberals will cut into Labour.

That right now is where my money would be if i was more confident in the situation.
I agree with much of what you say, but Boris is going to have to make a concession for an inconclusive General Election result. No-one is going to give him the two thirds majority he needs to hold a General Election on the basis that he can run down the clock in Downing Street whilst others negotiate to form a government. Too many MPs remember 2010 to allow that to happen. MPs would rather press on with a Letwin style Bill.

Boris' other problem is that he needs a mandate from somewhere for any deal. I don't think he can realistically campaign in an election for a blank cheque. He isn't trusted enough for that. He can't get a post-election, pre-31 October mandate from Parliament so he either has to publish and campaign on his offer to the EU and seek a mandate from the People or seek a post-election Brexit extension for getting his new deal through Parliament, which will of course depend on the Parliamentary arithmetic and makes him a hostage to Farage in an election.
0
reply
Wired_1800
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#64
Report 3 weeks ago
#64
(Original post by nulli tertius)
I agree with much of what you say, but Boris is going to have to make a concession for an inconclusive General Election result. No-one is going to give him the two thirds majority he needs to hold a General Election on the basis that he can run down the clock in Downing Street whilst others negotiate to form a government. Too many MPs remember 2010 to allow that to happen. MPs would rather press on with a Letwin style Bill.

Boris' other problem is that he needs a mandate from somewhere for any deal. I don't think he can realistically campaign in an election for a blank cheque. He isn't trusted enough for that. He can't get a post-election, pre-31 October mandate from Parliament so he either has to publish and campaign on his offer to the EU and seek a mandate from the People or seek a post-election Brexit extension for getting his new deal through Parliament, which will of course depend on the Parliamentary arithmetic and makes him a hostage to Farage in an election.
Interesting.

Do you think it is possible for the PM to prorogue to force the UK out of the EU, then call an election in November?

My view is that this move would neutralise Farage and boost his popularity. Also Parliament wont be in session to derail Government agenda and keep UK in the EU.

I am interested in your view because there seems to be the pre-31st October election talk, but I think anything before 31st October results in Farage stealing votes from the Tories.
0
reply
imlikeahermit
Badges: 8
Rep:
?
#65
Report 3 weeks ago
#65
If he does do this, which I fully expect he will; it will make an absolute mockery of all of these Brexiteers who have claimed 'We should stick by democracy'. Absolute joke.
1
reply
JohanGRK
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#66
Report 3 weeks ago
#66
Does anyone have links to any polls on the % of British voters who are in support of a no deal Brexit as of right now?
0
reply
Andrew97
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#67
Report 3 weeks ago
#67
(Original post by JohanGRK)
Does anyone have links to any polls on the % of British voters who are in support of a no deal Brexit as of right now?
It changes every 20 minutes and it depends who you ask the question to and how you ask it.
0
reply
JohanGRK
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#68
Report 3 weeks ago
#68
(Original post by Andrew97)
It changes every 20 minutes and it depends who you ask the question to and how you ask it.
More generally, what are the percentages like?

I'm happy to do the googling myself, but I'm not too sure as to where I should look besides YouGov
0
reply
Good bloke
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#69
Report 3 weeks ago
#69
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Every act that appears to be approved of by the non-constitution British constitution becomes a precedent pretty much by default. Going forwards can we expect Parliament to be prorogued every time the PM wants to pass a bill to enrich his/her pals, make fox hunting compulsory in schools or to abolish Liverpool? (Sorry to bring that last one in, just one of Boris's former ideas.)
Ahem. Can I point out that no act in parliament is a precedent for the future? Parliament can always change a law that it previously made, if it wishes, and has done so many times.

Your talk of suppression of debate is ironic, given that MPs have voted to leave the EU and also voted against the EU's only deal several times. One might even say it had been debated to death.
0
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#70
Report Thread starter 3 weeks ago
#70
(Original post by Good bloke)
Ahem. Can I point out that no act in parliament is a precedent for the future? Parliament can always change a law that it previously made, if it wishes, and has done so many times.

Your talk of suppression of debate is ironic, given that MPs have voted to leave the EU and also voted against the EU's only deal several times. One might even say it had been debated to death.
I meant in the courts and constitutional affairs, not in the narrow sense of laws.

Anyway, Boris we hear is now proroging, until 14 Oct.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632
0
reply
Wired_1800
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#71
Report 3 weeks ago
#71
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I meant in the courts and constitutional affairs, not in the narrow sense of laws.

Anyway, Boris we hear is now proroging, until 14 Oct.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632
Your dreams are coming true.
0
reply
Good bloke
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#72
Report 3 weeks ago
#72
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I meant in the courts and constitutional affairs, not in the narrow sense of laws.
Eh? You are making no sense. How does proroguing parliament impose a precedent on the courts?
0
reply
Good bloke
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#73
Report 3 weeks ago
#73
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Boris' other problem
As if he needs any more. He is wrestling with the aftermath of a needlessly and badly-called general election, a grossly too early triggering of article 50, and an equally incompetent negotiation. On the positive side, the electorate is running utterly scared of letting the Marxist Party into power.
0
reply
nulli tertius
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#74
Report 3 weeks ago
#74
(Original post by Wired_1800)
Interesting.

Do you think it is possible for the PM to prorogue to force the UK out of the EU, then call an election in November?

My view is that this move would neutralise Farage and boost his popularity. Also Parliament wont be in session to derail Government agenda and keep UK in the EU.

I am interested in your view because there seems to be the pre-31st October election talk, but I think anything before 31st October results in Farage stealing votes from the Tories.
Rather academic now in the light of this morning's events, but I think he would be on dangerous ground in proroguing until after 31 October and I think Boris has come to the same view.

Ultimately this country is Parliamentary majoritarian and I think the bright line between constitutional and unconstitutional is where a Government seeks to prevent a Parliamentary majority from acting.

For all the hot air this morning, I can't see what Boris has done wrong. There is time to turf him out of office and there is time to pass legislation contrary to his wishes. The rest is all politics.
0
reply
Wired_1800
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#75
Report 3 weeks ago
#75
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Rather academic now in the light of this morning's events, but I think he would be on dangerous ground in proroguing until after 31 October and I think Boris has come to the same view.

Ultimately this country is Parliamentary majoritarian and I think the bright line between constitutional and unconstitutional is where a Government seeks to prevent a Parliamentary majority from acting.

For all the hot air this morning, I can't see what Boris has done wrong. There is time to turf him out of office and there is time to pass legislation contrary to his wishes. The rest is all politics.
This is interesting, thanks for sharing.
0
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#76
Report Thread starter 3 weeks ago
#76
(Original post by Good bloke)
As if he needs any more. He is wrestling with the aftermath of a needlessly and badly-called general election, a grossly too early triggering of article 50, and an equally incompetent negotiation. On the positive side, the electorate is running utterly scared of letting the Marxist Party into power.
He isn't 'wrestling' with those things, he was a major cause of the unholy mess.
0
reply
Good bloke
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#77
Report 3 weeks ago
#77
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
He isn't 'wrestling' with those things, he was a major cause of the unholy mess.
I meant 'wrestling' of course, and he obviously is. I made no stipulation as to blame, but those were the major errors made by the May government. I have no idea how he argued in cabinet.
0
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#78
Report Thread starter 3 weeks ago
#78
(Original post by Good bloke)
I meant 'wrestling' of course, and he obviously is. I made no stipulation as to blame, but those were the major errors made by the May government. I have no idea how he argued in cabinet.
What we do know about him is that he was happy to tell lies about the EU in the Telegraph for over a decade, knowing and later admitting that he knew they were in many cases outrageous lies. We know that despite all that, for many years, he supported staying in the EU. We know that once he saw an opportunity to destroy his old school frenemy Dave, he seized on leaving the EU to achieve that grubby little aim. We know that he has lied and lied and lied and so why would we believe a single thing he says or does now, or consider it to be anything other than the further promotion of his narcissism complex?
0
reply
Good bloke
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#79
Report 3 weeks ago
#79
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
We know that he has lied and lied and lied and so why would we believe a single thing he says or does now, or consider it to be anything other than the further promotion of his narcissism complex?
I think you will find that it has come down to what he does, not what he says. He has acted to facilitate the former matching the latter.

All politicians are narcissists, by the way, even St Jeremy.
Last edited by Good bloke; 3 weeks ago
0
reply
Le Male
Badges: 9
Rep:
?
#80
Report 3 weeks ago
#80
(Original post by JohanGRK)
Does anyone have links to any polls on the % of British voters who are in support of a no deal Brexit as of right now?
https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/12/more-...hows-10560183/

The silent majority stands with Boris.
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Are you attending a Global Climate Strike?

Yes, I'm striking (39)
7.59%
No, but I wanted to/I support the cause (299)
58.17%
No (176)
34.24%

Watched Threads

View All
Latest
My Feed