New opposition plan to legislate on Brexit Watch

Fullofsurprises
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Corbyn has now climbed down from his obsession with leading the anti-government coalition and has agreed to a joint plan amongst MPs who oppose a Hard Brexit to legislate on it instead of trying to replace the current Tory leader.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...parties-labour

The government are racing through new budget plans as soon as Parliament returns on 5 Sept, which is a clear sign they intend to push for an early general election very shortly.

Corbyn is writing to hundreds of MPs urging them to support legislation against a Hard Brexit. There will be battles to come, as much depends on the Speaker allowing further sittings (there is normally a 3-week pause during the party conference season) and getting the numbers.

The alliance against Hard Brexit now therefore includes official Labour, the SNP, the LibDems, Green Party and some Tory MPs.
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Fullofsurprises
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BBC are saying that the first step for the new anti-HB coalition will be an emergency debate next week when Parliament returns.
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Rakas21
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What you have chosen not to add is that many of those Tory MP's have stated they would still back the Tories in a Monc and that Corbyn has had to all but capitulate on that prospect.

But yes, i think there is a strong chance that the bill to extend passes on the 9th and that as a result Boris calls an election for the 24th.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
What you have chosen not to add is that many of those Tory MP's have stated they would still back the Tories in a Monc and that Corbyn has had to all but capitulate on that prospect.

But yes, i think there is a strong chance that the bill to extend passes on the 9th and that as a result Boris calls an election for the 24th.
It was interesting to note that amongst others, the new anti-HB coalition has identified 116 Tory members who have at some point or other previously voted in ways that suggest they do not support an HB. If mobilised, they would be decisive - we'll see.

I agree, I think the coalition bill will pass and therefore BJ will call a General - I suspect this will have to be in early Oct now.

Do you think that in the circumstance if an early GE, it's pretty much inevitable that an extension to A50 will also have to be sought? The EU would surely grant it under those conditions.
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Jammy Duel
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One of two things happen: Bercow changes the rules to allow them to revoke article 50 (requiring some way to do it without a majority, mind), or Brexit happens. There is no option in the middle. Demand an extension? It will be ignored. No confidence? If it passes we get a post brexit election.

This also isn't really news, they did the same thing 6 months ago so you would have to be pretty special to think they wouldn't try it now, especially when the alternative is a VonC which would either fail or lead to a post brexit GE as Corbyn is too stubborn to allow anybody else to be PM, and nobody else wants him to be PM.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It was interesting to note that amongst others, the new anti-HB coalition has identified 116 Tory members who have at some point or other previously voted in ways that suggest they do not support an HB. If mobilised, they would be decisive - we'll see.

I agree, I think the coalition bill will pass and therefore BJ will call a General - I suspect this will have to be in early Oct now.

Do you think that in the circumstance if an early GE, it's pretty much inevitable that an extension to A50 will also have to be sought? The EU would surely grant it under those conditions.
The 116 are probably based from indicative votes but its highly unlikely more than a dozen or two would break rank under a whip.

Election requires 5 weeks, 4 days and the convention is a Thursday which means an attack on the 9th leads to the 24th being the likely day.

Its unlikely that Boris would ask for an offical extension with an election. If he has a majority then one is not needed (or a con-dup-brx majority), if the result goes against that then a rival government would be formed and the exit date in UK law changed even if we end up at the polls again later when revoke/neverendum gets argued about).
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
One of two things happen: Bercow changes the rules to allow them to revoke article 50 (requiring some way to do it without a majority, mind), or Brexit happens. There is no option in the middle. Demand an extension? It will be ignored. No confidence? If it passes we get a post brexit election.

This also isn't really news, they did the same thing 6 months ago so you would have to be pretty special to think they wouldn't try it now, especially when the alternative is a VonC which would either fail or lead to a post brexit GE as Corbyn is too stubborn to allow anybody else to be PM, and nobody else wants him to be PM.
The adults are coming back after the hols.

Serious politicians are very unlikely to take us into dangerous constitutional waters.

We are not going to get a prorogation. We aren't going to get a refusal of Royal Assent. We aren't going to get a refusal to resign in the face of a caretaker government with an actual majority. We aren't going to get a dissolution and election campaign spanning a No Deal Brexit.

What might we get?

The likeliest outcome is that Boris strikes a deal that doesn't pass the Commons. Boris seeks a pre-October 31 general election which Corbyn facilitates, perhaps with assurances of an Article 50 extension if the election is inconclusive.

Slightly less likely is Boris striking a deal that does pass the Commons in which case Boris would seek a late Autumn election.

If Boris fails to strike a deal; a Bill requiring Boris to seek an extension will have a clear majority in the Commons. Boris will prevent it becoming law by again calling a pre-October 31 election with Corbyn's support.

If the politics goes really wrong and we are looking at a crash out; there would be a VoNC with Corbyn supporting Clarke.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
The adults are coming back after the hols.

Serious politicians are very unlikely to take us into dangerous constitutional waters.

We are not going to get a prorogation. We aren't going to get a refusal of Royal Assent. We aren't going to get a refusal to resign in the face of a caretaker government with an actual majority. We aren't going to get a dissolution and election campaign spanning a No Deal Brexit.

What might we get?

The likeliest outcome is that Boris strikes a deal that doesn't pass the Commons. Boris seeks a pre-October 31 general election which Corbyn facilitates, perhaps with assurances of an Article 50 extension if the election is inconclusive.

Slightly less likely is Boris striking a deal that does pass the Commons in which case Boris would seek a late Autumn election.

If Boris fails to strike a deal; a Bill requiring Boris to seek an extension will have a clear majority in the Commons. Boris will prevent it becoming law by again calling a pre-October 31 election with Corbyn's support.

If the politics goes really wrong and we are looking at a crash out; there would be a VoNC with Corbyn supporting Clarke.
The only scenario i really disagree with here is the last one. While most of his party would support that solution i do not at all believe that he would grant support or permission to support an alternative PM. While he's not that power hungry for himself, it would effectively kill his leadership (it would look incredibly weak having to support an alternative PM even for a short period) and that is not something he'd do for an issue he privately does not care about all that much.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Qfa
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Qfa
Boris has just sprung the trap.

News is now breaking that the Queen will prologue parliament on the 9th for a Queens Speech on the 14th.

This does a few brilliant things..

1) The remain alliance has been robbed of their chance to take the order paper on the 9th

2) The remain alliance has been robbed of their chance to stop the conference recess

3) The remain alliance may well have been robbed of their chance to change the order paper at all if no bills are brought before parliament in the 14th-31st period and to extend technically requires 2 weeks notice for a summit

..

This is important because..

1) There is unlikely to be a majority to revoke late. As highlighted before, a large number of Tory and Labour remainers are cowards who will not put blood on their own hands.

2) By robbing the remain alliance of the chance to use legislation, they are effectively forcing Corbyn to call a MoNC next week, to force Tory remainers to choose him or Corbyn.

In effect, the battle will be won or lost next week.

Cumming's really is impressive if this was the idea. Most people were fearing a much later prologue through the 31st.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Boris has just sprung the trap.

News is now breaking that the Queen will prologue parliament on the 9th for a Queens Speech on the 14th.

This does a few brilliant things..

1) The remain alliance has been robbed of their chance to take the order paper on the 9th

2) The remain alliance has been robbed of their chance to stop the conference recess

3) The remain alliance may well have been robbed of their chance to change the order paper at all if no bills are brought before parliament in the 14th-31st period and to extend technically requires 2 weeks notice for a summit

..

This is important because..

1) There is unlikely to be a majority to revoke late. As highlighted before, a large number of Tory and Labour remainers are cowards who will not put blood on their own hands.

2) By robbing the remain alliance of the chance to use legislation, they are effectively forcing Corbyn to call a MoNC next week, to force Tory remainers to choose him or Corbyn.

In effect, the battle will be won or lost next week.

Cumming's really is impressive if this was the idea. Most people were fearing a much later prologue through the 31st.
Do you know how long the prorogation would last? Can’t MPs have emergency debates and expedite the process?
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Stiff Little Fingers
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Boris has just sprung the trap.

News is now breaking that the Queen will prologue parliament on the 9th for a Queens Speech on the 14th.

This does a few brilliant things..
You say brilliant things, but what you actually mean is asks an unelected monarch to remove the power of domestic parliament in order to force through something (no deal) most of the public don't want. And yet leavers claim it's the EU that's undemocratic...
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Do you know how long the prorogation would last? Can’t MPs have emergency debates and expedite the process?
It is a prerogative power so theoretically nobody can amend the date. The courts also can't reasonably stop it because parliament returns pre-Brexit (its not their job to make the life of remainers easy when they are outplayed).

Parliament would be prorouged on Monday 9th (so Corbyn has 3rd-6th for his MoNC) and return for a Queens Speech on 17th. Queens speech then has 5 sitting days before the vote (which even Tory remainers are unlikely to oppose if they have backed Boris in the monc) which takes us to the 24th.

From there the government just wont put anything before parliament for a week to stop remainers using legislation unless Merkel gives Boris what he wants at the EU summit on the 17th in which case Labour will be told to back his deal or they leave in a week with No Deal.
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the bear
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

Her Majesty the Queen is acting by the Grace of God.... it says so on your coins if you care to check. She has the authority to suspend parliament and allow the Will of the People to be carried out.

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Wired_1800
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(Original post by Rakas21)
It is a prerogative power so theoretically nobody can amend the date. The courts also can't reasonably stop it because parliament returns pre-Brexit (its not their job to make the life of remainers easy when they are outplayed).

Parliament would be prorouged on Monday 9th (so Corbyn has 3rd-6th for his MoNC) and return for a Queens Speech on 17th. Queens speech then has 5 sitting days before the vote (which even Tory remainers are unlikely to oppose if they have backed Boris in the monc) which takes us to the 24th.

From there the government just wont put anything before parliament for a week to stop remainers using legislation unless Merkel gives Boris what he wants at the EU summit on the 17th in which case Labour will be told to back his deal or they leave in a week with No Deal.
Wow, Cummings is truly clever. I think this puts Tory MPs in a quagmire, put your Party first or put your values first and vote for your political demise.

I don't think Tory MPs would want to see Corbyn as a replacement to Boris Johnson. However, Dominic Grieve has publicly stated that he would vote against the Govt in a VoNC.

If Johnson can pull this off then he would truly become the Churchill of our times.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by the bear)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

Her Majesty the Queen is acting by the Grace of God.... it says so on your coins if you care to check. She has the authority to suspend parliament and allow the Will of the People to be carried out.

Do you think anti-Monarchists would love this move? This puts the Queen against Parliament.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
It is a prerogative power so theoretically nobody can amend the date. The courts also can't reasonably stop it because parliament returns pre-Brexit (its not their job to make the life of remainers easy when they are outplayed).

Parliament would be prorouged on Monday 9th (so Corbyn has 3rd-6th for his MoNC) and return for a Queens Speech on 17th. Queens speech then has 5 sitting days before the vote (which even Tory remainers are unlikely to oppose if they have backed Boris in the monc) which takes us to the 24th.

From there the government just wont put anything before parliament for a week to stop remainers using legislation unless Merkel gives Boris what he wants at the EU summit on the 17th in which case Labour will be told to back his deal or they leave in a week with No Deal.
That's the gift to the Remainers.

Both the Commons and the Lords have the right to debate any matter they want in priority to the Queen's Speech.

https://churchinparliament.org/2014/...vestries-bill/
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Wow, Cummings is truly clever. I think this puts Tory MPs in a quagmire, put your Party first or put your values first and vote for your political demise.

I don't think Tory MPs would want to see Corbyn as a replacement to Boris Johnson. However, Dominic Grieve has publicly stated that he would vote against the Govt in a VoNC.

If Johnson can pull this off then he would truly become the Churchill of our times.
It gets even better. Thanks to people being thick before the summer, if Boris is Monc'd next week then the 14 day period runs past the 13th which means that automatically an election would occur but after the 1st (an election in which he would be able to tell the Brx Party, this non-Tory parliament is the enemy of Brexit).

That means that even if Corbyn moved on day 1 next Tuesday, he must form a majority government within 10 days or likely lose the chance to stop no deal.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
That's the gift to the Remainers.

Both the Commons and the Lords have the right to debate any matter they want in priority to the Queen's Speech.

https://churchinparliament.org/2014/...vestries-bill/
But can they vote on it?

They need an opportunitity to use a hard bill.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by Rakas21)
It gets even better. Thanks to people being thick before the summer, if Boris is Monc'd next week then the 14 day period runs past the 13th which means that automatically an election would occur but after the 1st (an election in which he would be able to tell the Brx Party, this non-Tory parliament is the enemy of Brexit).

That means that even if Corbyn moved on day 1 next Tuesday, he must form a majority government within 10 days or likely lose the chance to stop no deal.
Wow. Jo Swinson does not want Corbyn to lead the new Government and so Labour might force him out. There could be chaos as Tories would be fighting each other, Labour could go back to their old ways of backstabbing each other and Cummings would be waiting in the wings to pick of the pieces.

I hope many MPs are deselected for their treachery.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
But can they vote on it?

They need an opportunitity to use a hard bill.
I think it has just the right combination of precedent and novelty to give Bercow the wriggle room he needs.

Grieve is moaning like anything about the prorogation; but what constitutionally, rather than politically, is wrong with it? It is not over-lengthy. It has been done with proper warning. It doesn't mean Parliament isn't sitting on 31 October.

The Queen's Speech exposes one of the problems with FTPA. Of all the votes in the House, the one that should unquestionably bring down a Government, is an amendment to the loyal address. When the FTPA was passed, Cameron made it clear that it wasn't supposed to alter that constitutional convention. Yet when Corbyn tabled the motion of censure of May personally (personal censure of a minister was treated as a VoNC in 1896 and 1924), May refused to treat it as a VoNC and debate it because it wasn't in the FTPA form.
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