New opposition plan to legislate on Brexit Watch

Rakas21
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#21
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#21
(Original post by nulli tertius)
I think it has just the right combination of precedent and novelty to give Bercow the wriggle room he needs.

Grieve is moaning like anything about the prorogation; but what constitutionally, rather than politically, is wrong with it? It is not over-lengthy. It has been done with proper warning. It doesn't mean Parliament isn't sitting on 31 October.

The Queen's Speech exposes one of the problems with FTPA. Of all the votes in the House, the one that should unquestionably bring down a Government, is an amendment to the loyal address. When the FTPA was passed, Cameron made it clear that it wasn't supposed to alter that constitutional convention. Yet when Corbyn tabled the motion of censure of May personally (personal censure of a minister was treated as a VoNC in 1896 and 1924), May refused to treat it as a VoNC and debate it because it wasn't in the FTPA form.
It is of course worth saying that the fixed terms act will not survive a Tory majority be it now or with another PM. May had a repeal om the 2017 manifesto and i suspect so will Boris.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The only scenario i really disagree with here is the last one. While most of his party would support that solution i do not at all believe that he would grant support or permission to support an alternative PM. While he's not that power hungry for himself, it would effectively kill his leadership (it would look incredibly weak having to support an alternative PM even for a short period) and that is not something he'd do for an issue he privately does not care about all that much.
I agree, I think Corbyn would much rather there be chaos than Ken. The reason is simple - chaos fosters revolutionary situations. All part of the plan.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
In effect, the battle will be won or lost next week.

Cumming's really is impressive if this was the idea. Most people were fearing a much later prologue through the 31st.
Oh my, as I predicted, this was all just another Cummings plot. Sigh.

Boris could well still lose on the confidence now, as these antics are sure to annoy as many MPs as they motivate.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
It is of course worth saying that the fixed terms act will not survive a Tory majority be it now or with another PM. May had a repeal om the 2017 manifesto and i suspect so will Boris.
It's becoming a sick joke and it was always a bad idea.
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Fullofsurprises
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More than 9000 comments on the Guardian live page!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...084061ab38de5e
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Fullofsurprises
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Speaker Bercow has condemned the move as an offence against democracy.
https://twitter.com/BBCJayneMcC
Last edited by Fullofsurprises; 3 weeks ago
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Oh my, as I predicted, this was all just another Cummings plot. Sigh.

Boris could well still lose on the confidence now, as these antics are sure to annoy as many MPs as they motivate.
I do think it increases the likeyhood of losing a monc but as we've spoken about before he would quite like to tell Brx Party supports that a vote for anybody but the Tories is a vote to betray Brexit.
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It's becoming a sick joke and it was always a bad idea.
It was nothing more than a tool to stop the Tories dropping the Liberals.
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Fullofsurprises
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#28
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Hammond.
"It would be a constitutional outrage if Parliament were prevented from holding the government to account at a time of national crisis. Profoundly undemocratic."
https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
More than 9000 comments on the Guardian live page!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...084061ab38de5e
The snowflakes are falling so angrily that a glacier is forming.
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Fullofsurprises
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#30
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The snowflakes are falling so angrily that a glacier is forming.
Lol, it will be interesting to see just how angry we all get! :teehee:
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Lol, it will be interesting to see just how angry we all get! :teehee:
Part of the masterplan. Chaos breeds progress for Cummings. It would then be viewed as the Remainers causing chaos and being violent. The EU wont support such violence.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Part of the masterplan. Chaos breeds progress for Cummings. It would then be viewed as the Remainers causing chaos and being violent. The EU wont support such violence.
If it's violent, yes. Peaceful protest can take very strong forms. Some kind of peaceful shutdown of central London coupled to a determined effort to make it impossible for the Tory Party to take what amounts to fascist powers would seem best. The first step is to challenge it at law.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Part of the masterplan. Chaos breeds progress for Cummings. It would then be viewed as the Remainers causing chaos and being violent. The EU wont support such violence.
Hang on, I think I've seen this Cummings dude on the tv.

https://youtu.be/XSWMepI7yDg
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
If it's violent, yes. Peaceful protest can take very strong forms. Some kind of peaceful shutdown of central London coupled to a determined effort to make it impossible for the Tory Party to take what amounts to fascist powers would seem best. The first step is to challenge it at law.
Peaceful protests are powerless in my opinion. Cummings is in charge.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by ColinDent)
Hang on, I think I've seen this Cummings dude on the tv.

https://youtu.be/XSWMepI7yDg
Lol, Cummings probably watches GoT.
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Jammy Duel
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#36
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
The adults are coming back after the hols.

Serious politicians are very unlikely to take us into dangerous constitutional waters.

We are not going to get a prorogation. We aren't going to get a refusal of Royal Assent. We aren't going to get a refusal to resign in the face of a caretaker government with an actual majority. We aren't going to get a dissolution and election campaign spanning a No Deal Brexit.

What might we get?

The likeliest outcome is that Boris strikes a deal that doesn't pass the Commons. Boris seeks a pre-October 31 general election which Corbyn facilitates, perhaps with assurances of an Article 50 extension if the election is inconclusive.

Slightly less likely is Boris striking a deal that does pass the Commons in which case Boris would seek a late Autumn election.

If Boris fails to strike a deal; a Bill requiring Boris to seek an extension will have a clear majority in the Commons. Boris will prevent it becoming law by again calling a pre-October 31 election with Corbyn's support.

If the politics goes really wrong and we are looking at a crash out; there would be a VoNC with Corbyn supporting Clarke.
You were saying?

Those "adults" are currently trying to create a constitutional crisis in a desperate attempt to overrule the electorate
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
You were saying?

Those "adults" are currently trying to create a constitutional crisis in a desperate attempt to overrule the electorate
I was saying.

Boris has done none of the wilder ideas of his supporters. I really cannot get worked up about yesterday’s events. If Parliament wishes to throw him out of office or tie his hands it is perfectly capable of doing so.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I agree, I think the coalition bill will pass and therefore BJ will call a General - I suspect this will have to be in early Oct now.
The latest plan from the Remain alliance seems to confirm our thoughts if it passes. On Tuesday they will try amend the order paper so that on Wednesday they (instead of ordering him to extend) can amend a Brexit bill to stipulate that we can only leave with a deal.


Other than being questionably enforceable (they won’t define how one avoids no deal in all circumstances) and hard to pass in time I think that Boris will go straight to the polls against ‘the enemies of the people).

I’ll wait for the Sunday paper leaks but I’m now 75% certain I should be putting money on a 24th October poll.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The latest plan from the Remain alliance seems to confirm our thoughts if it passes. On Tuesday they will try amend the order paper so that on Wednesday they (instead of ordering him to extend) can amend a Brexit bill to stipulate that we can only leave with a deal.


Other than being questionably enforceable (they won’t define how one avoids no deal in all circumstances) and hard to pass in time I think that Boris will go straight to the polls against ‘the enemies of the people).

I’ll wait for the Sunday paper leaks but I’m now 75% certain I should be putting money on a 24th October poll.
You may be right but he is going to have to pay a political price to get there.

I cannot see Corbyn allowing a General Election where an indecisive result would lead to a No Deal Brexit. Corbyn knows that the electoral arithmetic is against a Labour majority and he knows that a PM who is not clearly defeated has the right to try and pass a Queen's Speech which would be well after 31 October.

A 2/3 majority needs Corbyn's support and Corbyn can sabotage a contrived VoNC (assuming no caretaker government) by moving an amendment to change the statutory wording to non-statutory wording. I don't think Boris would have the votes to defeat that.

Boris is going to have to concede that an indecisive election results in a Brexit extension.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
You may be right but he is going to have to pay a political price to get there.

I cannot see Corbyn allowing a General Election where an indecisive result would lead to a No Deal Brexit. Corbyn knows that the electoral arithmetic is against a Labour majority and he knows that a PM who is not clearly defeated has the right to try and pass a Queen's Speech which would be well after 31 October.

A 2/3 majority needs Corbyn's support and Corbyn can sabotage a contrived VoNC (assuming no caretaker government) by moving an amendment to change the statutory wording to non-statutory wording. I don't think Boris would have the votes to defeat that.

Boris is going to have to concede that an indecisive election results in a Brexit extension.
I would agree with that however that is no doubt a built in argument. Give me a majority or these nasty remainers will stop us leaving on the 31st.
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