Johnson's government has just lost their majority Watch

Alt Tankie
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#21
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#21
(Original post by Napp)
Well what would you call him then? either way i seem to remember you confessing to some flavour of it before.
Corbyn’s just a democratic socialist.

I am an authoritarian/ Traditionalist communist.
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paul514
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#22
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I don’t think many actually understand what is going on at the moment with leave/conservative tactics.

If they managed to stop the order paper for tomorrow or stop the bill being passed tomorrow then happy days we are the people that got brexit done here’s a general election and thanks for my majority.

If they get stopped they pull out all the stops play all the tricks publicly and even purge themselves of the people that get in the way. Brexit is delayed, again.

A general election is called he banks his third of the voters and gets the brexit party voters and even a small portion of the labour leave vote and wins a majority.

Come back in 1 to 2 months and shove it in my face that I am wrong.
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nulli tertius
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#23
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(Original post by paul514)
I don’t think many actually understand what is going on at the moment with leave/conservative tactics.

If they managed to stop the order paper for tomorrow or stop the bill being passed tomorrow then happy days we are the people that got brexit done here’s a general election and thanks for my majority.

If they get stopped they pull out all the stops play all the tricks publicly and even purge themselves of the people that get in the way. Brexit is delayed, again.

A general election is called he banks his third of the voters and gets the brexit party voters and even a small portion of the labour leave vote and wins a majority.

Come back in 1 to 2 months and shove it in my face that I am wrong.
I'm sorry. Once you have lost control, you have lost control.

Corbyn isn't going to give Boris a general election until after he has gone to Brussels to get his extension and failed to leave on 31 October. Corbyn needs Boris to be seen as a Brexit failure.

Even then, I think Corbyn may well make another pitch to be put in office with Liberal and SNP support. He might get that support if he offers a referendum before an election.
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Fullofsurprises
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#24
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Even then, I think Corbyn may well make another pitch to be put in office with Liberal and SNP support. He might get that support if he offers a referendum before an election.
The key question would be, would the likes of Ken Clarke support such a government. That has to be doubtful.
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Quady
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#25
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#25
(Original post by paul514)
I don’t think many actually understand what is going on at the moment with leave/conservative tactics.

If they managed to stop the order paper for tomorrow or stop the bill being passed tomorrow then happy days we are the people that got brexit done here’s a general election and thanks for my majority.

If they get stopped they pull out all the stops play all the tricks publicly and even purge themselves of the people that get in the way. Brexit is delayed, again.

A general election is called he banks his third of the voters and gets the brexit party voters and even a small portion of the labour leave vote and wins a majority.

Come back in 1 to 2 months and shove it in my face that I am wrong.
I suspect you're right that was the plan. But actually it seems this fixed term thing might be 'working' here.

Bojo cant just call an election, he can be dragged through the mud for a good while.
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Quady
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#26
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The key question would be, would the likes of Ken Clarke support such a government. That has to be doubtful.
I think it would entirely depend on the queens speech that Government put down. If it were in effect to do not much other than reask the question via a referendum I suspect he would support it.
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fallen_acorns
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#27
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#27
(Original post by nulli tertius)
I'm sorry. Once you have lost control, you have lost control.

Corbyn isn't going to give Boris a general election until after he has gone to Brussels to get his extension and failed to leave on 31 October. Corbyn needs Boris to be seen as a Brexit failure.

Even then, I think Corbyn may well make another pitch to be put in office with Liberal and SNP support. He might get that support if he offers a referendum before an election.
if Corbyn refuses an election, it will be a disaster for labour. Instead of making Borris seem like a failure, it will rally the brexit-support aorund him. As long as Boris is being forced by parliment to delay brexit, and not doing it on his own accord, it will strengthen boris' brexit base, and strengthen their anger towards parliment. On the flip side corbyn looks weak and scared of an election, and Labour get branded as the 'delay' party.
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brimstone131
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#28
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Corbyn has been calling for an election for the last 2 years, as we’re seeing now, his resistance to accepting one is appearing that he’s running scared.

Johnson also has many routes to go down, vote of no confidence etc etc

I suspect this has all been gamed and projected VERY clearly, and I suspect this is BoJos plan all along.... never expected proroguing to work without opposition, would expec something like the bill to appear, wouldn’t expect to win. All his noises over the last few weeks suggest that yes, he wants an election.

Polls maybe can’t be trusted, but seeing as every poll available puts the conservatives anywhere from 9% to 14%, it’s hard to not see that an election is the last thing Corbyn needs, and the best thing Johnson could have
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Fullofsurprises
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#29
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#29
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
if Corbyn refuses an election, it will be a disaster for labour. Instead of making Borris seem like a failure, it will rally the brexit-support aorund him. As long as Boris is being forced by parliment to delay brexit, and not doing it on his own accord, it will strengthen boris' brexit base, and strengthen their anger towards parliment. On the flip side corbyn looks weak and scared of an election, and Labour get branded as the 'delay' party.
This has been wargamed exhaustively by Cummings and his team, they have prepared for the current situation. I suspect Corbyn is going to walk into their trap, although he (Corbyn) did well in Parliament yesterday, if he refuses a GE now it will just look to the public like he's scared.
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Andrew97
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#30
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#30
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
This has been wargamed exhaustively by Cummings and his team, they have prepared for the current situation. I suspect Corbyn is going to walk into their trap, although he (Corbyn) did well in Parliament yesterday, if he refuses a GE now it will just look to the public like he's scared.
You can say what you like about Cummings , but if that all pays if then it’s a stroke of genius.

Corbyn voting down a GE after spending god knows how long saying nothing other than we need a GE makes him look a bit of a tit.
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Fullofsurprises
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#31
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(Original post by Andrew97)
You can say what you like about Cummings , but if that all pays if then it’s a stroke of genius.

Corbyn voting down a GE after spending god knows how long saying nothing other than we need a GE makes him look a bit of a tit.
There's no doubt that Cummings is skilful (as is Boris, especially in the untruths dept) but he has his limits. I think the thing they may still have underestimated is the traditional British dislike of being forced into early General Elections - they nearly always punish the people who push them into one. That's why May did worse than expected in her snap election. Cummings knows this and that's why they hope to make it look as if they were forced into it, but I suspect they are placing too much faith in polls, the achilles heel in many a politician's psyche.
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CoffeeAndPolitics
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#32
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
This has been wargamed exhaustively by Cummings and his team, they have prepared for the current situation. I suspect Corbyn is going to walk into their trap, although he (Corbyn) did well in Parliament yesterday, if he refuses a GE now it will just look to the public like he's scared.
Despite what Sir Keir Starmer said this morning on BBC Breakfast about Labour not 'dancing to Boris Johnson's tune' by backing a GE, it seems likely that Corbyn will fall into the trap of backing calls for a GE because he wanted one for a while now and not calling for one as you say would imply that he's running scared. The problem with that approach is that we'll probably end up with a hung parliament and either party could become the biggest party in terms of seats and thus form either a minority government or a coalition. Should Labour win in a snap GE, my concern is whether any of the other opposition parties would be prepared to support a Corbyn administration and that will come with a lot of compromises. Having said that, there's really no way out of the political ****storm unless MPs either vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Deal (Theresa May's deal) or major opposition parties are prepared to stomach a Corbyn administration and agree to support him provided that he promises to deliver on a confirmatory referendum vote on Brexit with an option to remain in the EU. The latter will involve Corbyn first calling for an extension to Article 50 to allow more time for negotiations with the EU on a potential deal and working around the troublesome Irish Backstop plan.
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Alt Tankie
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#33
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Most of the above takes are correct - my only penny’s worth is that - unfortunately- labour is screwed no matter what unless there is a serious change in circumstances.

Boris is going to win- the real question is by how much.
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_Wellies_
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#34
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#34
(Original post by paul514)
I don’t think many actually understand what is going on at the moment with leave/conservative tactics.

If they managed to stop the order paper for tomorrow or stop the bill being passed tomorrow then happy days we are the people that got brexit done here’s a general election and thanks for my majority.

If they get stopped they pull out all the stops play all the tricks publicly and even purge themselves of the people that get in the way. Brexit is delayed, again.

A general election is called he banks his third of the voters and gets the brexit party voters and even a small portion of the labour leave vote and wins a majority.

Come back in 1 to 2 months and shove it in my face that I am wrong.
You clearly haven’t learnt the lesson from very recent history.

This is the sort of bullishness the Conservatives displayed in 2017, so they confidently called an election and lost their majority. Brexit would be done and dusted by now if it wasn’t for that failed gamble.
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Alt Tankie
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#35
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Labour is screwed either way. They should stick to their guns and campaign on austerity and anti war and start purging blairites as Boris has done.
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Fullofsurprises
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#36
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(Original post by CoffeeAndPolitics)
Despite what Sir Keir Starmer said this morning on BBC Breakfast about Labour not 'dancing to Boris Johnson's tune' by backing a GE, it seems likely that Corbyn will fall into the trap of backing calls for a GE because he wanted one for a while now and not calling for one as you say would imply that he's running scared. The problem with that approach is that we'll probably end up with a hung parliament and either party could become the biggest party in terms of seats and thus form either a minority government or a coalition. Should Labour win in a snap GE, my concern is whether any of the other opposition parties would be prepared to support a Corbyn administration and that will come with a lot of compromises. Having said that, there's really no way out of the political ****storm unless MPs either vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Deal (Theresa May's deal) or major opposition parties are prepared to stomach a Corbyn administration and agree to support him provided that he promises to deliver on a confirmatory referendum vote on Brexit with an option to remain in the EU. The latter will involve Corbyn first calling for an extension to Article 50 to allow more time for negotiations with the EU on a potential deal and working around the troublesome Irish Backstop plan.
Yes, the final WA that Mrs May was going to put to the House never actually got put, so one way forward for Corbyn and the now ex-Tory rebels is to put it to a vote. There would then in fact be a withdrawal agreement to put to the EU and Boris would look like someone who is too weak and trapped by the Brextremists to put it. That would be better tactics for then accepting a GE.

I think an election is going to happen, the question is on what terms.
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Fullofsurprises
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#37
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#37
(Original post by paul514)
I don’t think many actually understand what is going on at the moment with leave/conservative tactics.

If they managed to stop the order paper for tomorrow or stop the bill being passed tomorrow then happy days we are the people that got brexit done here’s a general election and thanks for my majority.

If they get stopped they pull out all the stops play all the tricks publicly and even purge themselves of the people that get in the way. Brexit is delayed, again.

A general election is called he banks his third of the voters and gets the brexit party voters and even a small portion of the labour leave vote and wins a majority.

Come back in 1 to 2 months and shove it in my face that I am wrong.
Some of that poll lead that the Tories appear to have had will soften when the angry ex-Tory MPs are in the media every day accusing Boris of destroying the party. Moderate centrist Tories will stay at home or vote LibDem or for independents. Polling leads notoriously narrow anyway as you approach election day. So it's not at all clear that Boris would win a majority. He may however think it's worth the risk.
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Rakas21
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#38
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
There's no doubt that Cummings is skilful (as is Boris, especially in the untruths dept) but he has his limits. I think the thing they may still have underestimated is the traditional British dislike of being forced into early General Elections - they nearly always punish the people who push them into one. That's why May did worse than expected in her snap election. Cummings knows this and that's why they hope to make it look as if they were forced into it, but I suspect they are placing too much faith in polls, the achilles heel in many a politician's psyche.
To be fair to May I don’t think the dislike of early elections cost her, it just did not play for her either. She still gained more vote share as an incumbent than any incumbent since about 1830.

The lost majority stems from the complete collapse of left into labour and then May imploding which turned a likely 47-35 into 42-40.

This election is messier with 4 parties but also simpler. If Brx Party gets 12% (10% up on 2017 kip) then it’s likely Boris has no majority. If Lib Dem’s get 18% (10% up on 2017) then Boris probably has a majority.
(Original post by CoffeeAndPolitics)
Despite what Sir Keir Starmer said this morning on BBC Breakfast about Labour not 'dancing to Boris Johnson's tune' by backing a GE, it seems likely that Corbyn will fall into the trap of backing calls for a GE because he wanted one for a while now and not calling for one as you say would imply that he's running scared. The problem with that approach is that we'll probably end up with a hung parliament and either party could become the biggest party in terms of seats and thus form either a minority government or a coalition. Should Labour win in a snap GE, my concern is whether any of the other opposition parties would be prepared to support a Corbyn administration and that will come with a lot of compromises. Having said that, there's really no way out of the political ****storm unless MPs either vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Deal (Theresa May's deal) or major opposition parties are prepared to stomach a Corbyn administration and agree to support him provided that he promises to deliver on a confirmatory referendum vote on Brexit with an option to remain in the EU. The latter will involve Corbyn first calling for an extension to Article 50 to allow more time for negotiations with the EU on a potential deal and working around the troublesome Irish Backstop plan.
I don’t actually think a hung parliament would be as indecisive as you think. If Boris can not reach 315 then there is no majority for No Deal with the DUP which means that either Boris cannot command a Commons majority to the Queen or they do a deal with the Lib Dem’s and cave on the neverendum, though this could also see the Tories refuse to take power and force a second election. Caving would kill them electorally.

So your right that Corbyn makes things messy but because post-election a government must be able to command the commons and reasonably prove that to the Queen, in some ways he’s not quite as big a factor as you think.
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nulli tertius
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#39
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The key question would be, would the likes of Ken Clarke support such a government. That has to be doubtful.
He doesn't have to. He only needs to be watching Forest that evening.

There are 299 combined Tories and DUP. There are 302 (247+35+15+4+1) Lab, Lib, SNP, PC and Green.

Some of the 43 independents + Change will vote but the split of voting independents could well be in Corbyn's favour.
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nulli tertius
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#40
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
if Corbyn refuses an election, it will be a disaster for labour. Instead of making Borris seem like a failure, it will rally the brexit-support aorund him. As long as Boris is being forced by parliment to delay brexit, and not doing it on his own accord, it will strengthen boris' brexit base, and strengthen their anger towards parliment. On the flip side corbyn looks weak and scared of an election, and Labour get branded as the 'delay' party.
Corbyn has to play it very carefully, but so long as Boris appears shady about the election or October 31, Corbyn can justify hanging on.
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