If UK does go to elections soon, itll be the most wide-open election in recent memory Watch

Napp
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An interesting piece from Ian Bremmer at the Eurasia group
Also worth following his fb feed as he posts some interesting (and humorous) insights into Brexit and other political matters.


It's been at least 125 years since a British prime minister lost his first vote in parliament, but that's exactly what happened last night in the UK's House of Commons. Just days after he stunned and infuriated lawmakers by suspending parliament for five precious weeks in the lead-up to the October 31 Brexit deadline, MPs paid him back in full by voting to take the Brexit agenda out of his hands. Nearly two dozen members of Johnson's Conservative party voted against him.
What's next? There may be a vote later today on a bill that would force Johnson to delay Brexit unless MPs back a new deal or vote for a no-deal exit.
Pro-government members of the House of Lords will now try every procedural maneuver at their disposal to prevent last night's bill from passing the upper house. If the bill passes anyway, Johnson has said he'll call snap elections in mid October.
But he would still need two thirds of MPs to ratify that decision too. That means the Labour Party will have to support the decision, and many of its members suspect that once the election is called and parliament is dissolved, Johnson will then move the election to November to push through Brexit before the vote can be held. After last week's move to suspend parliament, few outside his party see much reason to trust him.
Johnson has also moved to kick out nearly two dozen members of his party who voted against him yesterday. Others have resigned the party or have threatened to.
The bottom line: If the UK does go to elections soon, an outcome that appears increasingly likely, this will be the most wide-open election in recent memory. And at this point it's impossible to say what that means for Brexit.
https://www.gzeromedia.com/this-late...NTJ_ewCfIo0pCg
https://www.facebook.com/pg/ianbremm...=page_internal
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fallen_acorns
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I'm not sure to be honest. I mean, ever since the Euro elections and the locals back earlier this year, it did really look open, but I think an actual election will act like gravity, and the draw of power will force people to consolidate into larger groups again.

I mean, boris is already doing that.. if he doesn't change course he will eat up the brexit parties support easily, and as long as corbyn is in power, the moderate tories don't really have anywhere to go except the lib dems who will pick of some, but not enough.

Labour are going with a wierd plan.. attacking the lib dems out of fear of loosing progressive remainers to them, but actually the branding they are giving them 'softer tories' is perfect, as that's what a lot of the middle ground really wants..

I think the brexit side is forming together behind boris.. and in reaction, the remain side will have no choice but to form together as well, or face electoral defeat, and when that option is in front of them, they will. In the end meaning we still have pretty much a 1v1 election, just where the sides are made up of different parties and people then they were 10 years ago.
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Rakas21
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Yeah, i am with fallen.

Although there are hypothetical polls suggesting a November election would be record breaking (never have both the opposition and government failed to breach 30%) these same hypotheticals suggested that Scotland and Northern Ireland would be seeing a surge to nationalists if we even voted for Brexit in 2016 (the SNP are up a bit but not much, in NI the surge is actually to the Alliance). So i am always dubious.

Like Fallen i expect both the Tories and Labour to pick up votes from the smaller parties and i predict something like 38-30-18-7. I think that the Lib Dem's being strong ironically means that they will take more Labour votes than the Tories lose to the Brexit Party which is not a bad outcome but fundamentally i suspect that this will not be the election in which 2.5 party politics really dies.

Now if we fail to deliver Brexit and Lab-Lib fail to win a neverendum, that really might break politics but that's a year away assuming the Tories don't win (i think they probably will).
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Alt Tankie
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I just remembered something I read a while ago .

Lib Dem’s only win seats when labour does well in the election.
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Notoriety
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If BoJo has a sympathetic bunch of Eurospectics in the Lords, he could get by the requirement for 2/3 by simply removing the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. Given the PM is willing to do the unconventional, I would say that this would be conceivable.

But he'd not have a majority for it in the Commons to get such a Bill through.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Notoriety)
If BoJo has a sympathetic bunch of Eurospectics in the Lords, he could get by the requirement for 2/3 by simply removing the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. Given the PM is willing to do the unconventional, I would say that this would be conceivable.

But he'd not have a majority for it in the Commons to get such a Bill through.
Boris is so politically weak at present that any bill could hijacked for any hostile purpose.
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Alt Tankie
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I honestly think if there’s an election now Boris would get a majority easily
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Notoriety
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
I honestly think if there’s an election now Boris would get a majority easily
A recent poll says he'd win if the GE were prior to an extension; but if there is an extension and the GE is after this, seems Labour would win. Which answers, in part, the question of why Labour wishes to force an extension.

http://britainelects.com/2019/09/07/...rexit-delayed/
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