Thousands march for independence in Wales and Scotland Watch

Saracen's Fez
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This Saturday thousands of people marched in the All Under One Banner marches in Merthyr Tydfil and Perth for independence for Wales and Scotland. To declare an interest, I was one of the 5200 people in Merthyr.

Do you think that change is in the air? Is it more likely now that Scotland and Wales will become independent, or do you think we are a small group of people talking to ourselves? And – perhaps even more importantly – do you think independence is desirable?
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Andrew97
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I believe the movement in Scotland is larger than in Wales. (Of course it could just be that the SNP are more gobby about it).

I can see Scotland having a ref and leaving, Wales I can’t.
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Zoqua
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
This Saturday thousands of people marched in the All Under One Banner marches in Merthyr Tydfil and Perth for independence for Wales and Scotland. To declare an interest, I was one of the 5200 people in Merthyr.

Do you think that change is in the air? Is it more likely now that Scotland and Wales will become independent, or do you think we are a small group of people talking to ourselves? And – perhaps even more importantly – do you think independence is desirable?
Who can blame them after the mess that is Brexit?
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Max1989
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Scottish independence could happen, but unlikely, although as a Welshman myself I can't understand why people want independence we are such a small country with a small economy, we are simply land, we don't have much to offer so I don't understand how independence would work unless we become just another vassal of another nation, so therefore we won't be independent.

Funnily enough, I'm moving from Cardiff to Glasgow to start Uni on Friday, but I'll probably do postal vote back to Cardiff, as my district is far more marginal than Glasgow which will just be solid SNP 24/7
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fallen_acorns
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Scottish independence is an interesting one.. I thought it was inevitable after their referendum, but now after brexit, its really out of their hands.

No chance will they ever win a referendum, unless the EU promises them an easy fast-track pass in. If they do, then yes, I can see Scotland becoming indipendant pretty soon, it seems all down to the EU rather than the SNP now. Obviously we know where the EU lies, in general they would welcome Scotland, but there are certain nations, notably Spain, who are strongly opposed to encouraging regions to become independent.

So yes, once we leave the EU (if), then I do think there is a distinct chance that they could become independant, but it would be all down to the EU.

As for wales, please.. the scotish case for economic freedom is poor.. they are basically poland leaving the EU. They are a net bennificator from the union financially, and take out far more than they put in... BUT compared to wales, scotland is a fianncial powerhouse. Wales have no hope, and lets be honest - they know it, they are better with us, and we are better with them.
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L i b
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
This Saturday thousands of people marched in the All Under One Banner marches in Merthyr Tydfil and Perth for independence for Wales and Scotland. To declare an interest, I was one of the 5200 people in Merthyr.

Do you think that change is in the air? Is it more likely now that Scotland and Wales will become independent, or do you think we are a small group of people talking to ourselves? And – perhaps even more importantly – do you think independence is desirable?
Nope. In Scotland it has become a bizarre spectacle, full of the same bussed-in oddballs dressed up and looking weird, not to mention of course the regular appearance of a fascist group that seems to go by entirely uninterrupted by the other marchers. It's just another unfortunate addition to our usual summer marching season of plastic paddy IRA supporters and crackpot Orangemen who dream of the good old days when they could give the 'fenians' a good hiding.

By all means, have a constitutional debate - but these groups march because they're fairly marginal. Even most of the sensible nationalist movement in Scotland want nothing to do with them. You seldom see the majority, in any circumstance, taking to the streets (Brexit, of course, being an interesting exception).
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Rakas21
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I believe that if Boris fails to win the coming election, there is a real danger that the SNP will be granted a referendum very soon and that may prove fatal to the union. If the Tories win then Boris will at least push it off until after the 2021 Hollyrood elections and if the effect has not been as bad as some of the media suggests, we may be able to remove the SNP-Green majority.

Wales (though we have only had one poll) has shown no real surge to the nationalists or anybody though Plaid may do better than last time. With the Tory vote share hitting a record in 2017 though, i am skeptical of any surge to independence.

In NI the surge is to the Alliance but not to nationalists so i have little fear.

In short i worry a bit about my birthland however i don't think there is a threat in Wales or NI this side of 2030.
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The Mogg
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Wales better bloody not leave. Imagine the left wing hell with just the Welsh Assembly in charge.
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Napp
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I believe that if Boris fails to win the coming election, there is a real danger that the SNP will be granted a referendum very soon and that may prove fatal to the union. If the Tories win then Boris will at least push it off until after the 2021 Hollyrood elections and if the effect has not been as bad as some of the media suggests, we may be able to remove the SNP-Green majority.
What makes you think they wont just hold one anyway? I mean London cant exactly object to such a thing given there stance on Europe right now...
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Napp)
What makes you think they wont just hold one anyway? I mean London cant exactly object to such a thing given there stance on Europe right now...
Because much like leaving the EU, the SNP need the referendum to be binding and respected by Westminster.

People forget but Salmond and Cameron signed the Edniburgh agreement to just that effect so that an orderly process could take place.

We've seen in Catalonia the most extreme example of what happens if there is no such agreement.
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Napp
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Because much like leaving the EU, the SNP need the referendum to be binding and respected by Westminster.
Debatable, as noted the argument that Westminsters opinion is null and void is, whilst unpalatable, not without precedent. Westminster violated the terms of the previous agreement after all.
Theres also the not insubstantial point that every single argument people have put for brexit can happily be used in the Scottish example too.
People forget but Salmond and Cameron signed the Edniburgh agreement to just that effect so that an orderly process could take place.
Would that be the one that Holyrood has accused Westminster of violating? And not without good reason.

We've seen in Catalonia the most extreme example of what happens if there is no such agreement.[/quote]
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L i b
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(Original post by Napp)
Debatable, as noted the argument that Westminsters opinion is null and void is, whilst unpalatable, not without precedent. Westminster violated the terms of the previous agreement after all.
You're suggesting the UK Government violated the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement? What? I don't think anyone has ever made any claim of that nature.

The UK Government does not just have an opinion on this, it has to authorise it. Rakas's statement there understates the case: the Scottish Parliament does not have the authority to legislate for a referendum on Scottish independence without that power being expressly devolved to it by the UK Parliament. It was, by statutory instrument, in 2012, on a temporary basis to allow one poll to take place.

The UK Government has been pretty clear when the Scottish Government requested it last time in 2016 that such a request will not be granted. Theresa May said that "now is not the time" and made it clear that no further movement would occur until the end of the Brexit process. The current Secretary of State for Scotland has given a rather clearer "no".

We've seen in Catalonia the most extreme example of what happens if there is no such agreement.
Indeed, but we do have rather better developed legal and parliamentary structures in place to prevent abuse of power by politicians in this country. The Scottish Parliament has its limitations, it is near impossible for it to pass unconstitutional legislation in any capacity, never mind for the Scottish Government to act unlawfully.

In any case, the outcome of the illegal referendum in Catalonia was not only that it was ignored, it was that it did not in any way reflect public opinion. It achieved nothing other than the breakdown of intergovernmental relations between the Spanish and Catalan administrations.
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BlueIndigoViolet
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Treason!!

(on a serious note - understand their concerns about Brexit, though would feel as with much of the nation a huge loss in the loss of any of Scotland, Wales or NI due to our shared (though admittedly at times turbulent) history)
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Napp
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(Original post by L i b)
You're suggesting the UK Government violated the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement? What? I don't think anyone has ever made any claim of that nature.
Unless im thinking of something else the SNP have repeatedly accused Westminster of violating it due to Brexit.
The UK Government does not just have an opinion on this, it has to authorise it. Rakas's statement there understates the case: the Scottish Parliament does not have the authority to legislate for a referendum on Scottish independence without that power being expressly devolved to it by the UK Parliament. It was, by statutory instrument, in 2012, on a temporary basis to allow one poll to take place.
Pardon me sorry?
I am aware, however my point was more there is little Westminster can do if Holyrood decided to damn precedent and hold one any way. Of course it could try and ignore the result but how do you think the reaction to that will play out?
The UK Government has been pretty clear when the Scottish Government requested it last time in 2016 that such a request will not be granted. Theresa May said that "now is not the time" and made it clear that no further movement would occur until the end of the Brexit process. The current Secretary of State for Scotland has given a rather clearer "no".
Again, my point was more there is very little Westminster can do within the bounds of administrative precedence aside from stick its fingers in its ears. Unless you foresee them forcibly closing the Scottish Parliament? Either way the point stands, if the SNP decided to hold one it would be extremely hard for for Westminster to ignore it without worsening the problem. How do you think the people of Scotland would react to Westminster telling them 'we dont give a **** about your view' ?
[/quote]
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Napp)
Unless im thinking of something else the SNP have repeatedly accused Westminster of violating it due to Brexit.

Pardon me sorry?
I am aware, however my point was more there is little Westminster can do if Holyrood decided to damn precedent and hold one any way. Of course it could try and ignore the result but how do you think the reaction to that will play out?

Again, my point was more there is very little Westminster can do within the bounds of administrative precedence aside from stick its fingers in its ears. Unless you foresee them forcibly closing the Scottish Parliament? Either way the point stands, if the SNP decided to hold one it would be extremely hard for for Westminster to ignore it without worsening the problem. How do you think the people of Scotland would react to Westminster telling them 'we dont give a **** about your view' ?
[/QUOTE]

I think your thinking of policy arguments within the referendum rather than the agreement. That was more about codifying a process. Though the SNP whine about everything.

Strictly speaking your correct however that remains unlikely. It would be akin to the UK having decided to leave the EU on an arbitrary date without engaging article 50 and then expecting a good natured deal. Both sides have some leverage, Boris cannot stop them forever but he can impose conditions such as having to keep a majority at Hollyrood.

As to how people would feel, certainly south of the border most people have a dim opinion of nationalists and will cheer a PM protecting our nation. Up north the 2014 and 2016 referendums tell us that that the losers won’t want to respect the result while the winners will rightfully feel betrayed at that fact.
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L i b
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(Original post by Napp)
Unless im thinking of something else the SNP have repeatedly accused Westminster of violating it due to Brexit.
I'm not sure what you could be thinking of. The Edinburgh Agreement was a few paragraphs long - you can read it here. It led to a short piece of legislation implementing the agreement (here).

Keep in mind that, in 2014, an in-out referendum on the UK's membership of the EU had been longstanding Conservative Party policy. There was never any bones made about that. Indeed, the Scottish nationalists used it repeatedly as an attack line against the pro-union campaigns.

I am aware, however my point was more there is little Westminster can do if Holyrood decided to damn precedent and hold one any way. Of course it could try and ignore the result but how do you think the reaction to that will play out?
The Scottish Parliament isn't some colonial legislature or some outpost of a failed state. The procedures for preventing it from acting ultra vires are parts of its own foundational documents. When legislation is introduced, a Minister has to make a statement on legislative competence. Before any legislation is enacted, there is a period by which the Law Officers (both Scottish and UK Government) can refer it to the courts on competence grounds. It cannot be referred for Royal Assent by the Presiding Officer without that period having elapsed and no reference having been made.

We have legal protections against these sorts of things. Sure, a bunch of Nationalist MSPs could conceivably meet somewhere, declare themselves some sort of legitimate Parliament and try to hold a referendum - in reality, this would be no different from a private referendum.

In Scotland, there is at least some precedent for that: soon after devolution, millionaire businessman and homophobe Brian Souter ran a "referendum" to try to stop the repeal of Section 28 which barred the promotion of homosexuality in schools. He sent postal ballots to every home in Scotland at his own expense. It actually received a pretty impressive "turnout" of about 32% of the Scottish electorate. Unsurprisingly, it told him what he wanted to hear. It was ignored.

Again, my point was more there is very little Westminster can do within the bounds of administrative precedence aside from stick its fingers in its ears. Unless you foresee them forcibly closing the Scottish Parliament? Either way the point stands, if the SNP decided to hold one it would be extremely hard for for Westminster to ignore it without worsening the problem. How do you think the people of Scotland would react to Westminster telling them 'we dont give a **** about your view' ?
It's not about "if it held one", it's that there isn't any mechanism for it to hold one. It would require legislation, and there is no legislative basis for it. Governments cannot simply spend money and take actions that they don't have the lawful authority to do. Again, this is not a matter of what the UK Government wants, it is what is in law: it is upheld by Scottish institutions. And no, before you suggest it, our courts, civil servants and officials are not given to banana republic flights of fancy.
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Napp
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(Original post by L i b)
I'm not sure what you could be thinking of. The Edinburgh Agreement was a few paragraphs long - you can read it here. It led to a short piece of legislation implementing the agreement (here).

Keep in mind that, in 2014, an in-out referendum on the UK's membership of the EU had been longstanding Conservative Party policy. There was never any bones made about that. Indeed, the Scottish nationalists used it repeatedly as an attack line against the pro-union campaigns.
The argument they make is that whilst the original referendum was billed as a one time thing London fundamentally altered the terms of the agreement when they shafted Scotland through Brexit. An argument that in ones mind holds enough water to be taken seriously considering Scotland voted by an overwhelming majority to stay in Europe, compared to the grand british total.

The Scottish Parliament isn't some colonial legislature or some outpost of a failed state. The procedures for preventing it from acting ultra vires are parts of its own foundational documents. When legislation is introduced, a Minister has to make a statement on legislative competence. Before any legislation is enacted, there is a period by which the Law Officers (both Scottish and UK Government) can refer it to the courts on competence grounds. It cannot be referred for Royal Assent by the Presiding Officer without that period having elapsed and no reference having been made.
You seem to be missing the point in that whilst you are technically correct in what you say if Scotland did decide to unilaterally declare itself indepedent all of the above mentioned points would be rendered ipso facto null and void.
We have legal protections against these sorts of things. Sure, a bunch of Nationalist MSPs could conceivably meet somewhere, declare themselves some sort of legitimate Parliament and try to hold a referendum - in reality, this would be no different from a private referendum.
You say 'a bunch' as if the SNP arent the legitimate representatives of Scotland?
In Scotland, there is at least some precedent for that: soon after devolution, millionaire businessman and homophobe Brian Souter ran a "referendum" to try to stop the repeal of Section 28 which barred the promotion of homosexuality in schools. He sent postal ballots to every home in Scotland at his own expense. It actually received a pretty impressive "turnout" of about 32% of the Scottish electorate. Unsurprisingly, it told him what he wanted to hear. It was ignored.
Im not sure you can really compare the two as, well aside from being utterly different that was, eo ipso, little more than a poll. Either way though 32% is a fairly impressive turnout whichever way you look at it.
It's not about "if it held one", it's that there isn't any mechanism for it to hold one. It would require legislation, and there is no legislative basis for it. Governments cannot simply spend money and take actions that they don't have the lawful authority to do. Again, this is not a matter of what the UK Government wants, it is what is in law: it is upheld by Scottish institutions. And no, before you suggest it, our courts, civil servants and officials are not given to banana republic flights of fancy.
Its entirely about that, for the above mentioned reasons and also because it isnt exactly rocket science to hold one.
Maybe not but our "elected officials" certainly are.

The fact of the matter is this London has little basis on which to stop Holyrood if they are determined to hold a referendum. The legal points, whilst technically true, are as i said irrelevant if Edinburgh decides to ignore them. There is absolutely nothing London can do without making the situation worse.
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L i b
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(Original post by Napp)
The argument they make is that whilst the original referendum was billed as a one time thing London fundamentally altered the terms of the agreement when they shafted Scotland through Brexit. An argument that in ones mind holds enough water to be taken seriously considering Scotland voted by an overwhelming majority to stay in Europe, compared to the grand british total.
I'm afraid I really don't follow your point on this one. The Edinburgh Agreement was about preparing a referendum. It didn't mention anything about the UK's membership of the European Union. I simply don't see any link between the two. The United Kingdom Parliament has always had exclusive competence to legislate on issues of foreign policy, no agreement changed that.

You seem to be missing the point in that whilst you are technically correct in what you say if Scotland did decide to unilaterally declare itself indepedent all of the above mentioned points would be rendered ipso facto null and void.

You say 'a bunch' as if the SNP arent the legitimate representatives of Scotland?
The SNP is a political party, a constituted organisation with a chief executive and a wee office down a lane in Edinburgh. It does not have a constitutional role. Nor do SNP parliamentarians: the only authority they have is through voting in the Scottish Parliament. It is the Parliament, nor the members, that have authority.

The Scottish Parliament simply cannot act in the way you suggest. As I said, a bunch of SNP MSPs could in theory meet in a room somewhere and declare themselves some sort of rival Parliament of Scotland. The Irish republicans something similar. I'm pretty sure they'd get laughed at.

Im not sure you can really compare the two as, well aside from being utterly different that was, eo ipso, little more than a poll. Either way though 32% is a fairly impressive turnout whichever way you look at it.
You're right, it was little more than a poll. That's what the SNP could, in theory, do if they wanted to hold a purported referendum without lawful authority. In reality, there are all sorts of problems with this approach, including legitimate use of electoral data. They'd probably find themselves up before the Information Commissioner.

The fact of the matter is this London has little basis on which to stop Holyrood if they are determined to hold a referendum. The legal points, whilst technically true, are as i said irrelevant if Edinburgh decides to ignore them. There is absolutely nothing London can do without making the situation worse.
Again, this isn't "London". This is the law of Scotland, which is largely interpreted in Scottish courts, by Scottish people. It is a fairly simple point: the Scottish Parliament cannot do this, and - again - we are not a banana republic. There are safeguards in place to ensure that legislation that is not competent is not enacted. Even if legislation that is ultra vires is given Royal Assent, it is of no effect: the courts decide that and ultimately it would only take one individual to raise an action to that effect in the Court of Session.

What I am saying is that it would clearly never get that far, because this isn't a matter of an accidental straying-into something that is semi-reserved to the UK Parliament. This would be a blatantly unlawful piece of legislation that would be required to hold an illegal referendum.
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NJA
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millions don't march for it
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Bang Outta Order
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The world is in ****ing shambles. Jesus come down already, it's getting worse.
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