No Deal Brexit Will Hit Leave Voting Areas The Hardest - Says Report Watch

Quady
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#21
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#21
(Original post by Jjj90)
Yeah... but aren't you ignoring the fact that the vast majority of UK fish is sold to the EU?
The vast majority of UK landed fish, ie from British boats? Or the vast majority of fish caught in UK waters.....?
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Rakas21
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#22
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(Original post by Jjj90)
Yeah... but aren't you ignoring the fact that the vast majority of UK fish is sold to the EU?
Not at all. A majority of the 40% we currently catch may be exported but we currently gain no value from the 60% caught by foreigners. Once that 60% becomes ours we gain from anything we catch.

It also looks like we’ll have a Deal anyway.
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JanusGodofDoors
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#23
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Oh the tragic irony of this whole affair. As it easy as it is to say that these people deserve this, it furthers the myth that Brexit happened in a vacuum, and was the consequence of a few bitter xenophobes getting angry at a progressive institution. People voted for Brexit, for Trump, for Bolsanaro, because they were angry at and alienated by an establishment that has left them behind. The system doesn’t work, it should hardly be a surprise that people got angry and wanted a change. The tragedy is that rather than getting angry at the rich who perpetuate this broken system, they were taken in by the lies of charismatic populists like Farage, who saw an opportunity for unprecedented power by undermining the institutions, that if reformed, could have changed society for the better. We have to address the feelings of discontent and abandonment that fuelled Brexit, rather than just dismiss all leavers as bigots and liars, or else this will not be the last geopolitical calamity we face.
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Fullofsurprises
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#24
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(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
There's no schadenfreude to be had here, because our Poundland Trump has already started the blame game, and the damage done to these areas will just solidify the anti-EU and anti-left sentiment as the government propaganda machine goes into overdrive to tell them it's the fault of the EU for not surrendering to us, and the fault of labour for not backing a deal or a general election, or for passing the Benn Act. They'll never get to hear the truth, that this is exactly what they voted for, because what they are getting is dictated by the far end of the Tory party, who've never had the interests of the country at heart
Yes, the Tory plan will be to blame the EU when a whole series of large manufacturers up sticks and leave, to nobody's surprise at all apart from hardcore Brextremists.

This will happen even with the deal currently being proposed, because it takes us out of both the single market and the customs union, both of which are vital to our economic wellbeing. The idea that it can be auto-magically replaced by the wave of Jacob Rees-Mogg's free trade magic wand is simply a delusion.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by JanusGodofDoors)
Oh the tragic irony of this whole affair. As it easy as it is to say that these people deserve this, it furthers the myth that Brexit happened in a vacuum, and was the consequence of a few bitter xenophobes getting angry at a progressive institution. People voted for Brexit, for Trump, for Bolsanaro, because they were angry at and alienated by an establishment that has left them behind. The system doesn’t work, it should hardly be a surprise that people got angry and wanted a change. The tragedy is that rather than getting angry at the rich who perpetuate this broken system, they were taken in by the lies of charismatic populists like Farage, who saw an opportunity for unprecedented power by undermining the institutions, that if reformed, could have changed society for the better. We have to address the feelings of discontent and abandonment that fuelled Brexit, rather than just dismiss all leavers as bigots and liars, or else this will not be the last geopolitical calamity we face.
People's real incomes either fell or stagnated after the 2008 financial crash and in many cases are still stuck at early-2000s levels. This makes working people angry and they look for someone to blame. It is always the case that the hard right step into such situations and come up with easy finger-pointing and blame games - in our case the EU as a thinly-veiled figleaf for racism.

This did sweep the world and we are just a symptom, not a cause. The good news is that in some places now, like Hungary, Italy and others, the trend is being counter-attacked successfully by more rational forces - even in Turkey, which is why Erdogan is currently engaged in nationalistic warmongering against defenceless victims. (That particular right wing response is not so easy for the British to get into now as we have basically scrapped our armed forces to hand money over to banks.) It's now up to us to counter-attack our own one. Trump is going to lose big in the next election in the US (opinion is significantly hardening against him in the crucial swing states) and Johnson and the ERG/Faragists will look increasingly stupid and marginal when he goes.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
People's real incomes either fell or stagnated after the 2008 financial crash and in many cases are still stuck at early-2000s levels. This makes working people angry and they look for someone to blame. It is always the case that the hard right step into such situations and come up with easy finger-pointing and blame games - in our case the EU as a thinly-veiled figleaf for racism.

This did sweep the world and we are just a symptom, not a cause. The good news is that in some places now, like Hungary, Italy and others, the trend is being counter-attacked successfully by more rational forces - even in Turkey, which is why Erdogan is currently engaged in nationalistic warmongering against defenceless victims. (That particular right wing response is not so easy for the British to get into now as we have basically scrapped our armed forces to hand money over to banks.) It's now up to us to counter-attack our own one. Trump is going to lose big in the next election in the US (opinion is significantly hardening against him in the crucial swing states) and Johnson and the ERG/Faragists will look increasingly stupid and marginal when he goes.
I've said before on here that the crash of 2008 was part of the problem, but wages have also been suppressed by large scale immigration which only served to worsen the situation.
Here's a report by the BoE on how wages have been affected and how there are different ways of reading what has happened, also QEII please note figure 4 on page 10 to see the sharp rise of low skilled workers between 2012-2014.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...om-britain.pdf
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by ColinDent)
I've said before on here that the crash of 2008 was part of the problem, but wages have also been suppressed by large scale immigration which only served to worsen the situation.
Here's a report by the BoE on how wages have been affected and how there are different ways of reading what has happened, also QEII please note figure 4 on page 10 to see the sharp rise of low skilled workers between 2012-2014.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...om-britain.pdf
Clearly inward migration will affect real wages. I've read that and I came away thinking "well, they would say that, wouldn't they" - it's not likely the B of E are going to admit that QE was a massive transfer of worker-incomes to city speculators, yet it was. The huge inflation in the stock markets and other asset classes driven by it have merely added to the woes of ordinary hard pressed earners and savers.
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Retired_Messiah
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Carlisle will be one of the worst hit? ffs it's already a bad place to live in or near
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Stiff Little Fingers
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#29
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(Original post by ColinDent)
I've said before on here that the crash of 2008 was part of the problem, but wages have also been suppressed by large scale immigration which only served to worsen the situation.
Here's a report by the BoE on how wages have been affected and how there are different ways of reading what has happened, also QEII please note figure 4 on page 10 to see the sharp rise of low skilled workers between 2012-2014.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...om-britain.pdf
The impact of immigration on wages is incredibly small: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-sma...ation-uk-wages

In making such claims, you're turning immigration into the scapegoat for the failure of right wing economics to adequately provide for the many, for politics designed to suppress workers at the benefit of the upper classes. Like most of our problems, low wages were created at home through domestic attempts to strangle workers organising in unions and collective bargaining.
Last edited by Stiff Little Fingers; 1 month ago
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MrMusician95
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#30
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#30
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
The impact of immigration on wages is incredibly small: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-sma...ation-uk-wages

In making such claims, you're turning immigration into the scapegoat for the failure of right wing economics to adequately provide for the many, for politics designed to suppress workers at the benefit of the upper classes. Like most of our problems, low wages were created at home through domestic attempts to strangle workers organising in unions and collective bargaining.
Thank you for posting this. So many people use immigration as the scapegoat and as a son of two immigrants it angers me. So, again, thank you.
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QE2
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(Original post by MrMusician95)
What are everyone's thoughts of this?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...port-mxt8nqzxm
Of course they will. This was never a secret. People are mostly idiots.
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_gcx
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#32
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Toxic ties need to be severed and that'll inevitably come at a cost.
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QE2
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(Original post by Rakas21)
As bad as these reports sound they are short term and don’t assume any change in wider policy (if we did not take advantage of leaving there’d be no point). For example fishing, not being subject to state aid rules (discriminating in favour of British firms) and no longer (in the long term given the cost) having to apply VAT.

I’m not overly concerned at the content. Brexit is a long term project.
Indeed. By removing protections to workers' rights and conditions, by reducing access and increasing tariffs to some of our main export markets, plus reducing our influence when negotiating new deals, the things are bound to get better for the average working person. Duh!
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QE2
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#34
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(Original post by ColinDent)
How very magnanimous of you, but I think that the vast majority of us knew what we were letting ourselves in for.
Now just sit back and watch as a deal appears before your very eyes over the next few days, obviously the threat of a no deal brexit has done it's job which is exactly why it has to stay as an option.
There will be no new deal (a deal is more than just a proposal from one side). And No Deal has been legally ruled out.
This is just political manoeuvring to try and avoid being blamed for no deal being accepted and the next extension being agreed. Ireland will always be the fatal stumbling block for any deal.
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Vinny C
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#35
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(Original post by Rakas21)
As bad as these reports sound they are short term and don’t assume any change in wider policy (if we did not take advantage of leaving there’d be no point). For example fishing, not being subject to state aid rules (discriminating in favour of British firms) and no longer (in the long term given the cost) having to apply VAT.

I’m not overly concerned at the content. Brexit is a long term project.
You can say that again... 3½ yrs later, it's still on the starting blocks!
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Vinny C
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(Original post by QE2)
There will be no new deal (a deal is more than just a proposal from one side). And No Deal has been legally ruled out.
This is just political manoeuvring to try and avoid being blamed for no deal being accepted and the next extension being agreed. Ireland will always be the fatal stumbling block for any deal.
Ireland is just the last mine before the finishing line. Plenty more mines to follow, we just haven't stepped on them yet!
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Sam1999__
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#37
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(Original post by Kitten in boots)
If people who voted for Brexit then find themselves unemployed and living in poverty as a result of Brexit, it is difficult to have any sympathy for them. They made their decision, they have to accept the consequences of their decision.

However it will be a real shame to see people who didn't vote for Brexit suffer due to the irresponsibility of Brexiters.
People keep forgetting that only 10% of our exports go to the European Union yet we accept EU regulation on 100% of our economy for the sake of that 10%. It is a very lopsided deal economically, not to mention the EU is an insult to patriotism and national identity. We should have a trade deal and co operate with Europe but a political organisation was never supposed to be a part of the European project and it was slowly brought in through the back door.

Leaving will allow us to reclaim and assert our British identity in addition to us being free to make trade deals all over the world, something the EU is an impediment to. We are net contributors to the European Union and the doomsayers who claim we will have an economic apocalypse are the same people who said we should join the Euro, blah blah. These people have an agenda, the European union is great for multinational companies and globalists which is why they are are trying to change peoples minds by nonsensical scaremongering.
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QE2
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Of course not, my point is that all economic forecasts have suggested that there will be a drop in relative growth of upto half a percent in GDP per year out to 2030 which means that any gain from Brexit is long term. With that being said, those forecasts may also be overly bearish given that they assume the status-quo.
You have yet to demonstrate what these gains will be. Simply saying "Oh, but all those losses will be offset by gains" is meaningless if you cant explain where the gains will come from.

For me though, that's a price worth paying for new opportunities
What "new opportunities" and how do they compare to the losses?

and to leave the single market (to be able to do things like state aid and vat reform).
VAT reform? The UK already charges 33% more than the EU mandatory maximum level. Why do you think that leaving the EU will mean the government will cut VAT when they can already cut it, but choose not to?

It would have to be done in stages probably over at least a decade but you could get a good £30bn from abolishing foreign aid,
Overseas often works hand in hand with trade an investment deals. It's like saying a company can save £1000 a year by not taking prospective clients out to dinner.


bringing in a carbon tax and bringing in a 'mansion' tax.
Which would raise little as those most affected would simply find ways around it. And do you seriously think a Tory government will bring in taxes that target the very wealthy over ordinary working people? Pfft!

From there we have other possibilities such as removing the state contribution to pensions,
Which would just lead to more people claiming pension credits.

restricting the annual NHS splurge simply to 2% per annum
The NHS has been chronically underfunded for years under the Tories. Are you suggesting we just close hospitals and GP surgeries and leave effective healthcare as something only for the wealthy? All just because some people are idiots and dislike foreigners?
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Zoqua
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#39
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(Original post by MrMusician95)
What are everyone's thoughts of this?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...port-mxt8nqzxm
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
If people who voted for Brexit then find themselves unemployed and living in poverty as a result of Brexit, it is difficult to have any sympathy for them. They made their decision, they have to accept the consequences of their decision.

However it will be a real shame to see people who didn't vote for Brexit suffer due to the irresponsibility of Brexiters.
Exactly so. Hopefully this will finally open their eyes to the reality of the situation.
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Sam1999__
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(Original post by QE2)
Indeed. By removing protections to workers' rights and conditions, by reducing access and increasing tariffs to some of our main export markets, plus reducing our influence when negotiating new deals, the things are bound to get better for the average working person. Duh!
Working class people stand the most to gain, we are primarily a service economy and a plentiful supply of cheap labour from the continent does nothing but harm to people working in blue collar professions by undercutting wages. Historically, it is the lowest echelons of society which feels the greatest impact of mass and uncontrolled immigration. Also the EU is not a champion of human and workers rights, we should not be taking morality lectures from a German controlled organisation. Workers rights are protected within UK law and many of the legislative protections from EU law will likely be drafted into UK law according to politicians involved in Brexit
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