is a no deal brexit likley now? Watch

Isabella Reed
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how likely is no deal Brexit now?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Isabella Reed)
how likely is no deal Brexit now?
Too early to say (the European council meets Thursday so if we have a deal it will be announced Tuesday or Wednesday).

My personal opinion is that we will have a deal and the market seems to think so too (Sterling appreciated from $1.22 to $1.27 in 48 hours).

We have to be wary though, any deal must pass parliament and while likely as things stand it is not guaranteed (or negotiations could collapse).
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ColinDent
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I feel that now a deal is more likely, due to the fact that no deal is a real possibility.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by ColinDent)
I feel that now a deal is more likely, due to the fact that no deal is a real possibility.
A deal is more likely because Boris is throwing the towel in and the DUP and ERG are in full surrender mode. Rees-Mogg has said he may have to accept what he earlier described as cretinous.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
A deal is more likely because Boris is throwing the towel in and the DUP and ERG are in full surrender mode. Rees-Mogg has said he may have to accept what he earlier described as cretinous.
So you feel that there's no movement on the EU side even though they have done what they said they wouldn't and reopened negotiations?
The truth of the matter is that there has to be some movement from both sides positions to come to an agreement, the EU are very concerned about a no deal brexit but up until recently never truly contemplated it happening because of their collusion with certain parliamentarians, but they now know that even with the surrender act in place no deal is still an extremely possible outcome.
You gotta love a loophole or 2 eh?
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QE2
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(Original post by Isabella Reed)
how likely is no deal Brexit now?
A No Deal Brexit cannot happen unless there is a majority in parliament who support it - so at the moment it is not likely.
Will the next general election return a majority who support No Deal? Also unlikely.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by ColinDent)
So you feel that there's no movement on the EU side even though they have done what they said they wouldn't and reopened negotiations?
The truth of the matter is that there has to be some movement from both sides positions to come to an agreement, the EU are very concerned about a no deal brexit but up until recently never truly contemplated it happening because of their collusion with certain parliamentarians, but they now know that even with the surrender act in place no deal is still an extremely possible outcome.
You gotta love a loophole or 2 eh?
I do not know whether the EU has moved in substance. We may find this out later in the week. We may not find out for 30 years. We don’t know what the EU would have agreed to without May’s red lines. They may move from May’s agreement but to something they would have agreed to 2 years ago.

“We won’t change the withdrawal agreement” seems to have been something said by the EU at Theresa May’s request. It evaporated too easily to have been due to a threat from Boris.

I think it is wholly improbable that the EU has believed in a No Deal Brexit since before Christmas. The UK has simply never spent the sort of money needed for real preparations. There wasn’t the physical infrastructure and there wasn’t the legal and administrative infrastructure.
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999tigger
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Less likely as Boris wants to stay PM and is getting ready for the election plus how he will spin the narrative.
Seems to be Mays deal for the most part.
Wait and see. To his credit at least kit appears some negotiations are going on.
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