New Brexit deal Watch
Can someone explain in simple terms the new brexit deal and how it differs from Theresa May's deal? So confused.
- Political Ambassador
Under May's deal the entire UK would be required to remain in the Customs union and highly aligned with the EU until a trade deal is struck, a trade deal that many thought would never be struck because the backstop provided a way to de facto keep the UK in the EU forevermore as there was no way to unilaterally withdraw.
Now it has been restricted somewhat, the customs requirements only apply to Northern Ireland but the price is a de facto internal border for the UK down the Irish Sea. There is also capability for unilateral withdrawal however it is unlikely to be exercised as it would require a majority in Stormont against continuing the arrangements. Stormont would be required to vote at the end of each period whether to maintain the system or not, with a simple majority there a new 4 year period begins, if there is "cross-community support" then it is 8, the simplest way to think of this cross-community support is that both Sinn Fein and the DUP both vote for it although there is a little more to it than that.
Most other changes are very small, for some if being cynical they aren't changes at all.
- The nature of the post brexit trade deal with the EU has changed from a "Close economic partnership" to "an ambitious trading relationship on goods on the basis of a Free Trade Agreement", in other words less alignment
- specifically on regulatory alignment the wording has been changed in such a way that diverging from EU regulation for the city is perfectly consistent
- wording in the Political Declaration which could have been read as the end goal of the trade deal being something more like the Norway Model has been dropped
- And then the bit that makes you say "nothing has actually changed" we have the requirement for a so called "level playing field" has a slight change of wording but nothing meaningful. This is what makes the cynic say nothing has changed because it basically says that we stay highly aligned because it would be "unfair" for the UK to change regulations to make it more competitive than the EU, and as such one of the big benefits for the UK from brexit, and concerns for the EU, is nullified.
- Political Ambassador
Still find it very hard to understand all this. Does that mean that England, Wales and Scotland will be out of the EU on the 31st October and Ireland stays in for the time being?
Hardly at all... only the section on the backstop has changed. It now proposes 2 Irish 'borders'... one on land and one in the Irish sea. The one on land allows free trade and the one in the sea allows UK custom and practice. Each of course excludes the things the other allows. It is a messy compromise and requires approval from Stormont every 4 yrs.
He has a deal, and he won’t go back to ask for more on the withdrawal agreement.
If he is strong in Parliament he will get more in a trade deal.
He can only campaign on his own deal in an election.