Brexit the Movie 31 - Now It Gets Really Heavy Watch

Fullofsurprises
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Sigh, another week of disturbing lack of clarity ahead (possibly) - we could get a decisive vote today - or maybe not. :rolleyes:

Some things to watch out for:

- The Speaker will rule today (we hope) on whether Boris can bring Saturday's Protocol vote again to the House, Boris thinks he has a very small majority for it now.

- If that is allowed, there will be a vote on it today.

- Labour are trying to do a deal with the DUP to introduce changes to it in yet another amendment - so far it looks as if the DUP rejected an attempt to bolt a Second Referendum onto it and so it might just say something like the whole UK has to stay in the Customs Union.

Things will probably get quite heated in the next few days and we can expect some Parliamentary fireworks. :yep:

It is possible that there could be one or more of:

- a general election announced
- a resignation of the PM
- a second referendum decided on
- a further long extension or a short extension

We live in interesting times. :afraid:
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Fullofsurprises
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Live coverage on the main media sites today:

Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sion-live-news

Telegraph (paywalled but they allow some pages free if you give your email)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...n-john-bercow/

Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9164341.html

The BBC will have a live page up soon, but can't see it yet.

Order-Order (politically right-leaning, quite a funny site at times and often on point)
https://order-order.com/

Canary usually do fairly intense coverage from the left viewpoint once things get going.
https://www.thecanary.co/

Huffpost UK
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...ef=uk-homepage
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Glaz
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In school
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Glaz)
In school
So much easier all round when they meet at weekends. Let's get Parliament permanently shifted to Saturdays with a Sunday overspill. :teehee:
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Fullofsurprises
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This morning's front pages, mostly running on the proposed Lab/DUP amendment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50119439
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Drewski
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Things will probably get quite heated in the next few days and we can expect some Parliamentary fireworks. :yep:
But not the good kind of fireworks.

The cheap ones.

The ones with impressive graphics on the outside and really long fuse that suggests you have to get a long way back, so you leg it, expecting something amazing....

...and then it fizzles, puffs, and does nothing. Then a 5 year old in the background cries.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Drewski)
But not the good kind of fireworks.

The cheap ones.

The ones with impressive graphics on the outside and really long fuse that suggests you have to get a long way back, so you leg it, expecting something amazing....

...and then it fizzles, puffs, and does nothing. Then a 5 year old in the background cries.
:lol:
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StriderHort
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Totes expecting JRM to stroll in wearing an armoured vest made of live children today.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Sigh, another week of disturbing lack of clarity ahead (possibly) - we could get a decisive vote today - or maybe not. :rolleyes:

Some things to watch out for:

- The Speaker will rule today (we hope) on whether Boris can bring Saturday's Protocol vote again to the House, Boris thinks he has a very small majority for it now.

- If that is allowed, there will be a vote on it today.

- Labour are trying to do a deal with the DUP to introduce changes to it in yet another amendment - so far it looks as if the DUP rejected an attempt to bolt a Second Referendum onto it and so it might just say something like the whole UK has to stay in the Customs Union.

Things will probably get quite heated in the next few days and we can expect some Parliamentary fireworks. :yep:

It is possible that there could be one or more of:

- a general election announced
- a resignation of the PM
- a second referendum decided on
- a further long extension or a short extension

We live in interesting times. :afraid:
I have a say 33% concern that a wrecking amendment will pass however the DUP has come out against a customs union and at the indicative votes the cabinet was ordered to abstain and most will vote with the government.

So I’m slightly optimistic that the bill will be unamended in a significant way.

While I’m fairly confident that we have a majority for MV5 I am more concerned about the bill failing. There are people like Sandbach and Letwin who will now vote for MV5 but if a neverendum is voted down they may then oppose the deal as remainers in blue clothing.
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Fullofsurprises
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Hugo Dixon from the People's Vote campaign gives a very good analysis of the PM's lies to Parliament in Saturday's session.
https://twitter.com/Hugodixon/status...54837454532608
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Fullofsurprises
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Court of Session in Scotland about to start hearing (before Lord Carloway) if Johnson committed Contempt of Court when he send the photocopied request for an extension to the EU (as demanded by the Benn Act) the other day, along with a couple of letters asking them to ignore it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sion-live-news

The EU are apparently actively planning now to grant this extension anyway.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
This morning's front pages, mostly running on the proposed Lab/DUP amendment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50119439
The most important vote to go unnoticed (also 4 Tories who voted for the Customs Union last time have now said they'll oppose it) is actually the Paving Motion which is in effect the timing motion. If the government wins then (subject to victory) we are gone on the 31st. If not then it's likely that the Commons will kick the can for weeks and Boris may well end up having to suspend it between readings.

You'll recall in 2012 that the Commons voted for the second reading of the Lords Reform Act by about 500 votes however Labour and the Tory rebels not really supporting it simply voted against the paving motion which in effect meant allowing a potential filibuster and so the government had to pull it.
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fallen_acorns
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(in before this thread becomes a 20 page argument, and every time I come back on there's 5 new pages that I don't have the energy/motivation to read through to see what people are talking about.)

Interesting to see the Gov becoming increasingly confident about their ability to get their bill through. I guess if that's the way its going, those who uppose it will rest their hopes on passing amendments that will ruin the deal. BBC saying a customs union seems to be the most likely one, although I am very interested to see how many votes the second-ref one will get. No one seems to think it can pass, but how many get behind it, especially how much Labour backs it, will be interesting for future elections.

Personally, as much I would like to see this all done and dusted, I would rather this all failed, and we had an election.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
(in before this thread becomes a 20 page argument, and every time I come back on there's 5 new pages that I don't have the energy/motivation to read through to see what people are talking about.)

Interesting to see the Gov becoming increasingly confident about their ability to get their bill through. I guess if that's the way its going, those who uppose it will rest their hopes on passing amendments that will ruin the deal. BBC saying a customs union seems to be the most likely one, although I am very interested to see how many votes the second-ref one will get. No one seems to think it can pass, but how many get behind it, especially how much Labour backs it, will be interesting for future elections.

Personally, as much I would like to see this all done and dusted, I would rather this all failed, and we had an election.
This is interesting.

The PM offered an election, but the Opposition ran away because they were scared to face the British people.

If we cant get an election, what do you think can be the next logical conclusion?
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
This is interesting.

The PM offered an election, but the Opposition ran away because they were scared to face the British people.

If we cant get an election, what do you think can be the next logical conclusion?
If this can't get through there will be an election - there isn't another way, it can't go on like this and each side knows it. Labour are and will just try and possition themselves in the best possible manner before they agree to one. Which is fair enough and a good move on their part. The issue obviously for them is the longer they delay the weaker they look, but the more potential they have for causing damage to boris, or letting him cause damage to himself.

I also think that there is an eliment of Labour thinking that kind of just wants this whole Brexit-issue to go away. Its a loosing issue for them, and I think if they are wise, they want to run their campaign on some of their policies which are actually very popular. As such I can see why there is a number of important labour figures who clearly want a second-referendum before an election. Were remain to win a second referendum, Labour are a shoe-in for the following election. Boris would have been defeated and humiliated.. the lib dems have no platform to campaign on once brexit is done, and labour's big weak spot disappears.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
If this can't get through there will be an election - there isn't another way, it can't go on like this and each side knows it. Labour are and will just try and possition themselves in the best possible manner before they agree to one. Which is fair enough and a good move on their part. The issue obviously for them is the longer they delay the weaker they look, but the more potential they have for causing damage to boris, or letting him cause damage to himself.

I also think that there is an eliment of Labour thinking that kind of just wants this whole Brexit-issue to go away. Its a loosing issue for them, and I think if they are wise, they want to run their campaign on some of their policies which are actually very popular. As such I can see why there is a number of important labour figures who clearly want a second-referendum before an election. Were remain to win a second referendum, Labour are a shoe-in for the following election. Boris would have been defeated and humiliated.. the lib dems have no platform to campaign on once brexit is done, and labour's big weak spot disappears.
Interesting, thanks for this post.

I think Labour’s indecisiveness may ruin them, but I agree that if they can hold on just longer then they can allow the Tories to consume themselves. Letwin is the one who causing their problems, so no Labour MP can be accused of trying to stifle the people’s mandate.

I personally dont want this crop of Labour front bench in Government though. I want Corbyn to gut the Party and get rid of those people like Watson, Benn, Starmer and other clowns, who are unable to fall in line behind the Leader.
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Fullofsurprises
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Stuff is happening!

- The legal case in Scotland has been postponed, presumably so that the court can monitor what the government does over the coming weeks to decide if the PM has broken the law.

- Parliamentary debates on Brexit start in a few minutes. The Speaker is likely to reject the Saturday vote being repeated, which means the government will now bring forward the bill itself. Labour and others will be amending, so it will be interesting to see what amendments the Speaker will accept.

- Germany says the EU will accept a further delay.

There's a good flowchart of what may happen next here.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ble-amendments
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Fullofsurprises
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Statement to the House now by Mr Speaker.
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Fullofsurprises
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Bercow rules that the motion is the same, so it can't be repeated today.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Bercow rules that the motion is the same, so it can't be repeated today.
Yes in his usual biast manner, the government has let's be honest a mistake now by the government for pulling the vote on Saturday, it had the well it was certainly close to the numbers.

Now bercow is litterally making no deal more likely.
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