How does the media know how people voted? Watch

satsun
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This is just for my general knowledge. I keep hearing 1/3 of Labour voters voted Leave, etc. How do they know this, when you just turn up and don’t declare your vote?
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GCSE_beginner
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They must have done surveys of voters leading up to or during the referendum, asking them whether they wanted o leave or remain in the EU and then established who voted Labour or Conservative from there.
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GCSE_beginner
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I honestly don't know;this is what I could think of
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satsun
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They just seem so sure, it doesn’t sound like opinion polling, it sounds like fact.
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Drewski
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Surveys, opinion polls, there are ways.

On the days of actual elections there are exit polls, too.
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Andrew97
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It’s a conspiracy. We are all secretly subjects of the Holy Roman Empire and the world overlord is Ronald McDonald.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by satsun)
This is just for my general knowledge. I keep hearing 1/3 of Labour voters voted Leave, etc. How do they know this, when you just turn up and don’t declare your vote?
They don't know. They extrapolate from surveys. polls etc. As they later dig down into the figures, they may find that the first impressions are wrong. The latest idea is that Labour did very well with Remain voters in Leave seats.
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GCSE_beginner
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
They don't know. They extrapolate from surveys. polls etc. As they later dig down into the figures, they may find that the first impressions are wrong. The latest idea is that Labour did very well with Remain voters in Leave seats.
So facts like these keep changing regularly?
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DJKL
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(Original post by GCSE_beginner)
So facts like these keep changing regularly?
Certainly, there is vast amounts of research on survey design , phrasing of questions, even order of questions, a badly designed survey can "lead" respondents to desired answers. Am sure someone on here with an actual Stats degree can expand but even as part of first year stats at university I covered some of this (albeit a long time ago) . I seem to recall there were "funnel" questions which if badly designed exerted pressure on the subject to answer a particular way based on the earlier questions asked.

Of course the modelling is likely a lot more sophisticated these days, social media playing a significant part and different companies using diverging methodologies, which may be why polls these days seem to contradict one another so much.

We should never just ignore statistical analysis but we should be very cautious accepting without question the conclusions drawn from the data, flaws do get missed. (see recent Naomi Woolf controversy re data possibly/likely being misunderstood as an example)
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by GCSE_beginner)
So facts like these keep changing regularly?
On DJKL's point there is a famous sketch from Yes Prime Minister that is as relevant today as when it was made more than 30 years ago.


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DJKL
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
On DJKL's point there is a famous sketch from Yes Prime Minister that is as relevant today as when it was made more than 30 years ago.


Thanks-spot on, I had forgotten that clip but perfect illustration of the art of the possible.
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