Burton Bridge
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So when do we think this will happen?

Will the Turkey parliamentarians vote for Christmas, the remainer parliamentarians on both sides at least 140 labour MPs and the independents are quacking in their pens, they know they are going to be toast.

What do you think the results of this election will be?
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RogerOxon
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
So when do we think this will happen?

Will the Turkey parliamentarians vote for Christmas, the remainer parliamentarians on both sides at least 140 labour MPs and the independents are quacking in their pens, they know they are going to be toast.

What do you think the results of this election will be?
12th December
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SHallowvale
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Assuming that public opinion does not change from now until the date of the election, it looks like it will deliver a large majority for the Conservatives.

I doubt that the Brexit Party would gain any seats. It looks like they'll gain, at most, around 12% of the vote. If the distribution of these votes is the same as it was in 2015 then they'll get very few seats, if any.

Labour look likely to lose many seats to the Conservatives and/or the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will likely gain many seats although they'll continue to be significantly under-represented. The Conservatives and Labour alike look like they'll be losing seats in Scotland to the SNP, who themselves look set to win back most of Scotland.

That said, this could all change. If the Conservatives run an abysmal campaign as they did in 2017 then public opinion could change significantly.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by RogerOxon)
12th December
Remainers parliamentarians will block that, like they have blocked everything else
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RogerOxon
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Remainers parliamentarians will block that, like they have blocked everything else
That's entirely possible, but I've given up trying to guess what happens next with Brexit.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Assuming that public opinion does not change from now until the date of the election, it looks like it will deliver a large majority for the Conservatives.

I doubt that the Brexit Party would gain any seats. It looks like they'll gain, at most, around 12% of the vote. If the distribution of these votes is the same as it was in 2015 then they'll get very few seats, if any.

Labour look likely to lose many seats to the Conservatives and/or the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will likely gain many seats although they'll continue to be significantly under-represented. The Conservatives and Labour alike look like they'll be losing seats in Scotland to the SNP, who themselves look set to win back most of Scotland.

That said, this could all change. If the Conservatives run an abysmal campaign as they did in 2017 then public opinion could change significantly.
Very true, I think you have it about spot on there mate
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KingoftheBRUCE
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I'm not 100% sure, but reasonably confident that the EU will decide to extend, and then Labour will accept Boris' latest election offer.

As for the result? Who knows. Some things to consider:

- The Tories are polling about 35%, with Labour in the 20-25% range. If nothing changes, this will deliver a Conservative majority. Labour seats in the North and Midlands, particularly strong leave areas, are under threat from the Tories here.

- Lib Dems will have likely a good election, since they're polling 15-20%. They will likely snap up seats they lost in 2015 thanks to remainer Tories switching

- Labour and the Tories are both looking likely to lose most, if not all of their seats in Scotland to the SNP.

Things that will decide the election:

- Tactical voting. I don't expect to see this at an official level but some People's Vote campaigners may try to get people voting for the best placed candidate to defeat the Con/BXP candidate. If a large number of people get behind this, it could cause some unexpected losses for the Tories and some unexpected holds for Labour.

- The main issues of the campaign. The Conservatives did worse than expected in 2017 because they allowed Labour to define the conversation. If the Conservatives can keep the attention focused on Brexit, that won't happen this time.

- Farage. The Brexit Party is polling quite badly right now (~10%), but add the confusion of an election and Farage throwing everything he has at the Conservatives and who knows. Thanks to the joys of first-past-the-post, a stronger BXP splits the leave vote and helps the remain parties.

Predictions? Who even knows at this point. At the moment, I'll say tactical voting saves Labour's bacon and we have another hung parliament with Cons close to but not quite having a majority. Jeremy Corbyn stays on by virtue of not losing as badly as expected, Boris Johnson is still PM but still can't get his deal done, and we never escape this political limbo.
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Rakas21
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As of tonight both Labour and the Lib Dem’s are hinting they’ll back it should a long extension be granted tomorrow.

In terms of the result the usual pattern in election campaigns is that the smaller parties lose ground to the big two (2010 aside) and so after looking at things on a regional basis as well as national I’ve thought that we are probably looking at something like 38-30-18-7 and 330-340 seats (majority of 16-36).

Since the Tories are actually on 37% in several polls already we could well see them over-perform.
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QE2
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Will the Turkey parliamentarians ... quacking in their pens...they know they are going to be toast.
You never fail to deliver!
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
So when do we think this will happen?

Will the Turkey parliamentarians vote for Christmas, the remainer parliamentarians on both sides at least 140 labour MPs and the independents are quacking in their pens, they know they are going to be toast.

What do you think the results of this election will be?
I think the problem is the 1/8 Turkey politician.
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Rakas21
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I’m quite interested in Boris’s threat to pull everything but the essentials if they reject it. We’d go from a zombie Parliament discussing bills about 19 circus animals to a literal corpse Parliament.
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fallen_acorns
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If I were Lab or Lib, I would be very worried about young voters and family voter turn out in a december election. How much is political feaver going to die away for young people when there are christmas parties on the weekends, decorations, fairs, christmas shopping, nights out, end of term, going home for the holidays, etc.

I've heard the counter being that the cold weather may mean a lower turn out for old voters - but if I had to wager, I would bet that the festivities cause a much larger problem to the easily distracted youth, than a bit of cold weather does to old people.. old voters are a stubborn and resiliant bunch, they will be out voting no matter what.
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imlikeahermit
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Lib Dem and labour coalition. Heard it here first.
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Suchomimus
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Click on this link for a general election poll:

https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6199190
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Lib Dem and labour coalition. Heard it here first.
Add the SNP...

+ Only if labour sort their brexit possition out. If they establish a propper remain platform, and Farage continues to campaign that boris' deal is a betrayal, then you could well be right.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
If I were Lab or Lib, I would be very worried about young voters and family voter turn out in a december election. How much is political feaver going to die away for young people when there are christmas parties on the weekends, decorations, fairs, christmas shopping, nights out, end of term, going home for the holidays, etc.

I've heard the counter being that the cold weather may mean a lower turn out for old voters - but if I had to wager, I would bet that the festivities cause a much larger problem to the easily distracted youth, than a bit of cold weather does to old people.. old voters are a stubborn and resiliant bunch, they will be out voting no matter what.
I think you can rationalise this in any direction you want.

After the election, political scientists will explain how the result was inevitable.

Predicting the past is a lot easier.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Add the SNP...

+ Only if labour sort their brexit possition out. If they establish a propper remain platform, and Farage continues to campaign that boris' deal is a betrayal, then you could well be right.
While i dislike their post-coalition iteration a lot the one good thing about them is that they seem pretty clear that they wont put Marxists in power albeit i worry that they'd give the SNP full autonomy even if i dont think they'd betray the union by granting a referendum.

Actually the real perverse question is what happens if the Tories get say 305 with Lab about 100 behind and the Lib Dems on 40. Would Boris give up power or end up having to grant the neverendum for coalition.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Lib Dem and labour coalition. Heard it here first.
As a labour man that sound abhorrent to me, the yellow Tories made more Tory from being fresh off eating a load of formerly real blue Tories.

I dont think so, unfortunately I think labour are brown bread mate, unless they sort out their brexit position to at least a semi coherent message.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Add the SNP...
Good lord you just made it worse, surely no labour leader would drop so low as to do that?
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londonmyst
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Good lord you just made it worse, surely no labour leader would drop so low as to do that?
You are really asking that question after everything that's happened within the Labour Party since 12 September 2015?
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