Burton Bridge
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#21
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#21
(Original post by londonmyst)
You are really asking that question after everything that's happened within the Labour Party since 12 September 2015?
Lol well yea.... fair play mate.

The idea of labour joining forces with the yellow Tories or should I say the clueless Tories is a new low for me, which could only be beaten by the disrespect of the union in doing the same with the SNP.

Listen to the clueless Tories imlikeahermit

https://youtu.be/EXgV6BY2qWY
Last edited by Burton Bridge; 3 weeks ago
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imlikeahermit
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#22
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#22
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Add the SNP...

+ Only if labour sort their brexit possition out. If they establish a propper remain platform, and Farage continues to campaign that boris' deal is a betrayal, then you could well be right.
I think it's a cert. It makes sense. About time the Remain parties got together and started collectively taking responsibility for stopping Brexit. I also think that they'll have the members to command a majority.
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
As a labour man that sound abhorrent to me, the yellow Tories made more Tory from being fresh off eating a load of formerly real blue Tories.

I dont think so, unfortunately I think labour are brown bread mate, unless they sort out their brexit position to at least a semi coherent message.
Quite honestly, I'm undecided. I would vote Labour if they sort their position out to remain. I would vote Lib Dem if Labour hadn't sorted their position out. Either way, the polls that we've seen so far to me are highly misleading in their outcome. I really cannot see BJ getting a majority.
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fallen_acorns
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#23
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#23
interesting articles on both the BBC and Sky this morning about the SNP and Libs going around Labour and working with the tories.

It makes sense for both of them.. why would either of them be afraid of an election? both are doing well in the polls, both look like they can improve their current standing, especially the lib dems. And actually screwing over Labour (as this move would) would likely see even more Lab supporters move over to them. So for selfish reasons it makes a lot of sense.

But if your purely going on brexit, then its a disaster - undermining labour and giving the tories a huge bullet to fire against corbyn (that the other parties all had to gang up to force him to have an election), will hand the next election to the torries, and by extension to leaving the EU.

Maybe in the eyes of the libs+SNP the battle is already lost. If they don't have any confidence in Corbyn, and they think that Boris will win no matter what, then this move is genius for them, and a nightmare for labour.
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Burton Bridge
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#24
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#24
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
interesting articles on both the BBC and Sky this morning about the SNP and Libs going around Labour and working with the tories.

It makes sense for both of them.. why would either of them be afraid of an election? both are doing well in the polls, both look like they can improve their current standing, especially the lib dems. And actually screwing over Labour (as this move would) would likely see even more Lab supporters move over to them. So for selfish reasons it makes a lot of sense.

But if your purely going on brexit, then its a disaster - undermining labour and giving the tories a huge bullet to fire against corbyn (that the other parties all had to gang up to force him to have an election), will hand the next election to the torries, and by extension to leaving the EU.

Maybe in the eyes of the libs+SNP the battle is already lost. If they don't have any confidence in Corbyn, and they think that Boris will win no matter what, then this move is genius for them, and a nightmare for labour.
The liberal Democrats are more politically inclined to agree with the Tories anyway, the "modern one nation conservatives" and liberal Democrats are much the same dog with a different coat.

I think the SNP are different and much more inline with labour on social policies. However labour are a unionist party while the SNP concern for the European union is pseudo. It's about as real as their concern for the union full stop, its just a convenience for them that Scotland voted to remain and they can use that to further differate themselves from labour politically, after all labour is their main political rivals.

Therefore I believe on brexit, the liberals have always known the game is lost. If we get any fair democracy leave will win, I think all remainers know that. The SNP could not give a flying flamingo about the EU or brexit they just want to carry on there roll and get Scotland independent in or out the EU.
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nulli tertius
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#25
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#25
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
But if your purely going on brexit, then its a disaster - undermining labour and giving the tories a huge bullet to fire against corbyn (that the other parties all had to gang up to force him to have an election), will hand the next election to the torries, and by extension to leaving the EU.

Maybe in the eyes of the libs+SNP the battle is already lost. If they don't have any confidence in Corbyn, and they think that Boris will win no matter what, then this move is genius for them, and a nightmare for labour.
They haven't given up. They both want a hung Parliament before Brexit and don't think Corbyn's tactics will get them.
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Smack
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#26
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#26
(Original post by nulli tertius)
They haven't given up. They both want a hung Parliament before Brexit and don't think Corbyn's tactics will get them.
I think the SNP are a bit more keen on a Conservative majority, and maybe even Brexit itself, as it'd do more to further the independence cause.
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nulli tertius
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#27
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#27
(Original post by Smack)
I think the SNP are a bit more keen on a Conservative majority, and maybe even Brexit itself, as it'd do more to further the independence cause.
They will not get Indyref2 with a Conservative majority and a unilateral referendum is off the agenda because of the international reaction to Catalonia (not the gaolings). They need to be wanted.
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Rakas21
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#28
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#28
(Original post by Smack)
I think the SNP are a bit more keen on a Conservative majority, and maybe even Brexit itself, as it'd do more to further the independence cause.
Surprisingly the last Scottish poll suggested that they were only up 2% on 2017 despite all the Remain/Tory whaffle from Sturgeon. The projected gain is from the Tory vote share being down (Libs and Brx Party). Lab are going to go to 1 seat though.

I think Scotland could be more interesting than people think because there are a lot of marginals and the Tories up there will try play down Brexit in favour of the union.
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fallen_acorns
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#29
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#29
(Original post by nulli tertius)
They haven't given up. They both want a hung Parliament before Brexit and don't think Corbyn's tactics will get them.
If they believe they can get a hung parliament without Labour performing well, I think they are mistaken. FPTP pushes in the favour of our two main parties, and without a decent Labour performance, the other two won't get their hung parliament.

Going for this election will help them, at the expense of labour - but for every bit that it helps them, it will help the torries more. Hence why I can't see them doing it, unless they have accepted a tory victory is the outcome, and just want the biggest peice of the pie possible at the expense of labour.
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sad_llama
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#30
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#30
As it'll be a Brexit election/proxy second referendum the Tories will probably lose a lot of Remain seats and Labour will lose Leave seats. The Brexit Party could possibly make some gains and hurt the Tories but who knows, and the Lib Dems will likely gain some Remain seats and Labour will take more of a hit from them than the Tories from the Br*xit party. With Labour behind the Tories in the polls and not having a clear Brexit position the Tories will do better, although we could see another 2017 where they reduce their majority and end up in a worse position than before. Basically politics is a complete ****show and nobody really knows what's coming.
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nulli tertius
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#31
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#31
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
If they believe they can get a hung parliament without Labour performing well, I think they are mistaken. FPTP pushes in the favour of our two main parties, and without a decent Labour performance, the other two won't get their hung parliament.

Going for this election will help them, at the expense of labour - but for every bit that it helps them, it will help the torries more. Hence why I can't see them doing it, unless they have accepted a tory victory is the outcome, and just want the biggest peice of the pie possible at the expense of labour.
The problem is this.

Boris has a majority in Parliament for a form of Brexit.

There is still probably no majority for any big ticket amendment (Customs Union, Referendum) unless the DUP come on board. There are probably majorities for smaller amendments limiting Boris' negotiating position at the next stage. The Lib Dems/SNP have decided that the ERG is a spent force. They won't kill Boris' Deal at 3rd Reading whatever Boris is forced to concede. Therefore he will, eventually, get through the mire with something that is recognisably Brexit. Once we have left, they think Boris will reap a victor's prize in an election and there is a risk for the SNP of the delay clashing with the Salmond trial. They may not be right about the victor's dividend, but that is their fear.

An election with Brexit unresolved is a steeplechase.
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Smack
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#32
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#32
(Original post by nulli tertius)
They will not get Indyref2 with a Conservative majority and a unilateral referendum is off the agenda because of the international reaction to Catalonia (not the gaolings). They need to be wanted.
I'm not sure if it would be politically possible to outright deny a second independence referendum on the back of another SNP surge, particularly if it is replicated at the 2021 Holyrood elections. An English Tory government in Westminster denying the democratic right of the Scottish people would give the SNP unlimited ammo until they either get it, or lose at the polls.

(Original post by Rakas21)
Surprisingly the last Scottish poll suggested that they were only up 2% on 2017 despite all the Remain/Tory whaffle from Sturgeon. The projected gain is from the Tory vote share being down (Libs and Brx Party). Lab are going to go to 1 seat though.

I think Scotland could be more interesting than people think because there are a lot of marginals and the Tories up there will try play down Brexit in favour of the union.
They'll probably try and play down Brexit but doing so might be a mistake as none of the other main parties up here seem to have anything to say to the 38% who voted Leave.
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Rakas21
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#33
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#33
(Original post by Smack)
I'm not sure if it would be politically possible to outright deny a second independence referendum on the back of another SNP surge, particularly if it is replicated at the 2021 Holyrood elections. An English Tory government in Westminster denying the democratic right of the Scottish people would give the SNP unlimited ammo until they either get it, or lose at the polls.



They'll probably try and play down Brexit but doing so might be a mistake as none of the other main parties up here seem to have anything to say to the 38% who voted Leave.
That’s true but those Leavers are already voting Tory anyway I suspect, Brx is only polling about 5%. The challenge for the Tories is to convince the Lib voters that outside of Fife its a pointless vote and that in these 5-10 Tory-SNP marginals they can save the union.

I do agree that a majority in Hollyrood in 2021 is probably enough (though it might be pushed off to say 2024) however most polling for the past two years has suggested the SNP-Green alliance will lose its majority even if Con-Lib can’t replace them. So the question becomes whether Labour in Scotland would betray the union for a coalition as minor partner.

Personally I’m hoping that post-Brexit the Tories and Libs can do a deal in some seats. There are three seats where the Libs stepping aside would likely allow for Tory gains (the three big ones in the north west).
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Burton Bridge
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#34
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#34
(Original post by Smack)
I think the SNP are a bit more keen on a Conservative majority, and maybe even Brexit itself, as it'd do more to further the independence cause.
Correct, the SNP are not adverse to brexit at all. It's all a political game with them.
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paul514
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#35
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#35
(Original post by Smack)
They'll probably try and play down Brexit but doing so might be a mistake as none of the other main parties up here seem to have anything to say to the 38% who voted Leave.
The conservatives will simply say once in a generation isn’t 5 years and not grant it.
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Fullofsurprises
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#36
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#36
(Original post by nulli tertius)
There is still probably no majority for any big ticket amendment (Customs Union, Referendum) unless the DUP come on board.
There are no doubt still furious calculations going on, but I can't help thinking that Boris would be better off ditching the objection to the customs union - thereby letting at least some of the ERG go - to get back the DUP, as that would also be likely I think to get him the other votes he needs. The difficulty is all about satiating the blood lust of the ERG, but that appears to have somewhat lessened of late as they stare down the reality barrel of a no deal and a furious post-Brexit electorate.

Failing that, it looks to me as if gridlock will stay firmly in place with no early election and no third reading - that takes us to a no deal or else another government has to be formed that can somehow govern. The day is coming closer when the Palace will have to send for other people.
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mjhmichael18
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#37
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I think a General Election will happen in Early December before Christmas and before Brexit if there is an extension to the end of January next year.
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