Who do you think will win the next general election? Watch

Rakas21
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#21
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#21
Im extremely confident (say 75%) that the Tories will be the largest party in vote share and likely seats (say 66% confidence).

In terms of a majority i think that even with a potential loss of 25-30 seats, there is likely to be a sufficient Lab-Con swing due to Lib Dem resurgance that they'll take them.

My bet right now would be 330-340 seats and a Tory majority. I would put the chance of that majority at say 55%.

- I am very certain of the loser of this general election though, the fixed terms parliament act.

There is no way any majority government will allow parliament to dictate an election date again.
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JJJJJAAAAMES
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#22
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#22
You should add a poll to this
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999tigger
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#23
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#23
Cons because Labour got booted out of Scotland and they are redrawing the boundary lines. Question is whether they will have a majority. Brexit completely clouds the issue.
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username5008580
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#24
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#24
(Original post by JJJJJAAAAMES)
You should add a poll to this
There already is a poll in a different thread.
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SHallowvale
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#25
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#25
(Original post by nulli tertius)
But we had a hung Parliament in 2017. May only governed by reason of a deal with the DUP.

To unhang the next Parliament Boris must win seats May didn’t win in 2017. Which seats are going to be Tory gains?
We did, yes, but the situation we are in now is closer to the situation in 2010 than it is 2017. Hence I am comparing numbers with those from 2010.

The Tories can and will make gains in currently Labour constituencies where Labour won by a small margin, such as in Kensington, Ipswich and Bedford.
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Suchomimus
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#26
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General election poll on TSR:
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho...6199190&page=3
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nulli tertius
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#27
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
We did, yes, but the situation we are in now is closer to the situation in 2010 than it is 2017. Hence I am comparing numbers with those from 2010.

The Tories can and will make gains in currently Labour constituencies where Labour won by a small margin, such as in Kensington, Ipswich and Bedford.
Ipswich is winnable. I don't think Kensington is and although there is a strong Tory candidate in Bedford, I think the demographics are against a Conservative win there.
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SHallowvale
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#28
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Ipswich is winnable. I don't think Kensington is and although there is a strong Tory candidate in Bedford, I think the demographics are against a Conservative win there.
Labour won Kensington by about 20 people if I remember correctly. If Labour's share of the vote declines nationally then chances are it will do so in Kensington too, at least a little. Given their small lead, I think this is enough to unseat their current MP.
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Rakas21
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#29
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Ipswich is winnable. I don't think Kensington is and although there is a strong Tory candidate in Bedford, I think the demographics are against a Conservative win there.
I actually think Kensington has the potential to be close to a three way marginal. I actually have the Tories as winning it but it won't be far off 35-30-25. Tactical voting not withstanding of course but even when it was run close last time the Libs polled 11% (that's low but in most proper marginals they fell to below deposit levels). Since i think Lib could take as much as a quarter of the 2017 Lab vote, the high remain/labour vote share in London makes them especially vulnerable in London to large Lab to Lib swings (i also allowed for the Tory vote to fall a bit since i doubt they'll poll quite as well as last time).
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nulli tertius
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#30
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Labour won Kensington by about 20 people if I remember correctly. If Labour's share of the vote declines nationally then chances are it will do so in Kensington too, at least a little. Given their small lead, I think this is enough to unseat their current MP.
I don't think you can assume the Tories had lost all their Remainers from that seat by 2017.

Moreover Grenfell will still be significant to the election there with the report out this week.
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Andrew97
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#31
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Change U.K.

And then Anna Sobrury will wake up.
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Arran90
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#32
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The election will not break the Brexit deadlock as it will end in another hung parliament.

Conservatives will have the largest number of MPs. Boris Johnson will be re-elected.

Lib-Dems and the Brexit Party will have an approximately equal number of MPs and between them take around 35% of the vote.

Most Brexit Party victories will be in white working class former Labour strongholds with a few in East Anglia. Nigel Farage will be elected as an MP.

SNP will increase their number of MPs and clearly stand as the third party.

Change UK and independents wiped out.

Caroline Lucas will be re-elected but poor Green Party results elsewhere as most voters will back Lib-Dems.

Jeremy Corbyn might lose his Islington North seat to the Lib-Dems!
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paul514
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#33
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(Original post by Arran90)
The election will not break the Brexit deadlock as it will end in another hung parliament.

Conservatives will have the largest number of MPs. Boris Johnson will be re-elected.

Lib-Dems and the Brexit Party will have an approximately equal number of MPs and between them take around 35% of the vote.

Most Brexit Party victories will be in white working class former Labour strongholds with a few in East Anglia. Nigel Farage will be elected as an MP.

SNP will increase their number of MPs and clearly stand as the third party.

Change UK and independents wiped out.

Caroline Lucas will be re-elected but poor Green Party results elsewhere as most voters will back Lib-Dems.

Jeremy Corbyn might lose his Islington North seat to the Lib-Dems!
You are dreaming if you think the brexit party is going to pick up more than a seat or two at most.
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Burton Bridge
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#34
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#34
(Original post by Rakas21)
Im extremely confident (say 75%) that the Tories will be the largest party in vote share and likely seats (say 66% confidence).

In terms of a majority i think that even with a potential loss of 25-30 seats, there is likely to be a sufficient Lab-Con swing due to Lib Dem resurgance that they'll take them.

My bet right now would be 330-340 seats and a Tory majority. I would put the chance of that majority at say 55%.

- I am very certain of the loser of this general election though, the fixed terms parliament act.

There is no way any majority government will allow parliament to dictate an election date again.
Absolutely the fixed term parliament act is toast, no majority government labour, liberal, brexit party or whatever if they win a majority the fixed term parliament act is dead.

I think parliamentarians know the Tories will win, that's what the 16 yo silly amendment is for and the EU national vote there was no movement for this before they thought it would boost the renain vote.
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Rakas21
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#35
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#35
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Absolutely the fixed term parliament act is toast, no majority government labour, liberal, brexit party or whatever if they win a majority the fixed term parliament act is dead.

I think parliamentarians know the Tories will win, that's what the 16 yo silly amendment is for and the EU national vote there was no movement for this before they thought it would boost the renain vote.
Your reading too much into those amendments. Labour never expected the speaker to actually select them because revisions to the franchise are not within the scope of a two clause general election bill, this was about virtue signalling.


Your correct on the Brx Party. They’ll struggle to match the kipper vote in 2015 and even with a better strategy in certain seats they won’t challenge since Boris will commit to a potential 2020 exit if the EU are unreasonable.

Also, 10 Tory MP’s have just had the whip restored for voting with them.
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Burton Bridge
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#36
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Your reading too much into those amendments. Labour never expected the speaker to actually select them because revisions to the franchise are not within the scope of a two clause general election bill, this was about virtue signalling.


Your correct on the Brx Party. They’ll struggle to match the kipper vote in 2015 and even with a better strategy in certain seats they won’t challenge since Boris will commit to a potential 2020 exit if the EU are unreasonable.

Also, 10 Tory MP’s have just had the whip restored for voting with them.
Yes I know about the tories, I'm not 100% sure that good either but I care little about the Tories anyway.

So you dont believe the amendments will amount to anything?
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Rakas21
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#37
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Yes I know about the tories, I'm not 100% sure that good either but I care little about the Tories anyway.

So you dont believe the amendments will amount to anything?
Speaker has already rejected them.
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Burton Bridge
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#38
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#38
(Original post by Rakas21)
Speaker has already rejected them.
Ok mate, I didn't realise I've been busy as hell today so I'm a bit behind
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paul514
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#39
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#39
(Original post by Rakas21)
Your reading too much into those amendments. Labour never expected the speaker to actually select them because revisions to the franchise are not within the scope of a two clause general election bill, this was about virtue signalling.


Your correct on the Brx Party. They’ll struggle to match the kipper vote in 2015 and even with a better strategy in certain seats they won’t challenge since Boris will commit to a potential 2020 exit if the EU are unreasonable.

Also, 10 Tory MP’s have just had the whip restored for voting with them.
I also agree the brexit party won’t get anything significant in fact I would be surprised if they got a seat.
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username5008580
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#40
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#40
(Original post by paul514)
I also agree the brexit party won’t get anything significant in fact I would be surprised if they got a seat.
Who knows? They may end up like UKIP who did well in the European elections but do terribly in the general election. That being said both parties have something in similar: they had Nigel Farage as a leader. Or they surprise us and get more votes than expected.
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