Who do you think will win the next general election? Watch

paul514
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#41
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#41
(Original post by AnonymousGuest)
Who knows? They may end up like UKIP who did well in the European elections but do terribly in the general election. That being said both parties have something in similar: they had Nigel Farage as a leader. Or they surprise us and get more votes than expected.
Who knows? Anyone who knows that you can’t get a bunch of seats as a national party without having much higher polling than the brexit party has.

It’s the same issue UKIP had, enough to damage the conservatives not to win but not enough to get seats.
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LsDad
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#42
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#42
Very high chance no overall majority imo

Conservatives will underestimate the Brexit party. They will be over confident, they always are, yet they haven’t delivered and they won’t do a pact and it will result in a split vote in many seats. This will allow labour to keep some seats by rights that they should lose it will also allow the liberty dems to pick up a few.

Corbyn is totally unelectable imo and until labour get a leadership change they are a total waste of time and I see no point in voting for the Greens.

I wouldn’t worry about U18 not getting the vote, none of the parties are worth voting for - Vote none of the above I say!
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Napp
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#43
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#43
(Original post by LsDad)
Conservatives will underestimate the Brexit party. They will be over confident, they always are, yet they haven’t delivered and they won’t do a pact and it will result in a split vote in many seats.
In fairness, why would the tories want to further sully their name by linking up with the extremists of Farage and his ilk?


I wouldn’t worry about U18 not getting the vote, none of the parties are worth voting for - Vote none of the above I say!
Got a better alternative? Simply not voting would seem to be somewhat childish given the circumstances, no?
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Arran90
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#44
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#44
(Original post by paul514)
You are dreaming if you think the brexit party is going to pick up more than a seat or two at most.
I have wondered if the Brexit Party could win around 20% of the vote but only elect a couple of MPs because of the nature of the FPTP election system.

The trick of winning elections is to concentrate the votes to where they matter the most.

Take into account:

1. Labour patently cannot be trusted on Brexit. More recently Labour ministers have stated that Labour is a Remain party. Jeremy Corbyn wants another referendum with Remain as an option.

2. Jeremy Corbyn is part of a Metropolitan elite and is despised by white working class British voters from (former?) industrial towns in the north of England. His shadow cabinet contains truly gut-wrenching individuals.

3. There may have been voter complacency in 2017 as Jeremy Corbyn was viewed as a joke except by Momentum supporters and Marxists. Now there is real fear that he is knocking on the gates of power and is within grasping distance of becoming the next PM.

4. Voters seemed to 'entrust' the Conservatives that they will deliver Brexit back in 2017. That general election was uncalled for by the public, unwanted, and completely unnecessary. Now we have overshot two Brexit deadlines as a result of the Conservative's failure to deliver. Leave voters are getting angry and frustrated with the entire process. Brexit delayed is Brexit denied! They know that this general election is the Brexit general election - and effectively a second referendum.

5. If Labour loses seats to the Brexit Party in their former heartlands then the party will view it as a stinging retaliation by the Leave voters for the party's ambiguity and dishonesty when it comes to the policy on Brexit. If the Brexit Party is a damp squib in their former heartlands then it gives the message that the white working class British voters who voted Leave there aren't sincere about Brexit.
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paul514
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#45
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#45
(Original post by LsDad)
Very high chance no overall majority imo

Conservatives will underestimate the Brexit party. They will be over confident, they always are, yet they haven’t delivered and they won’t do a pact and it will result in a split vote in many seats. This will allow labour to keep some seats by rights that they should lose it will also allow the liberty dems to pick up a few.

Corbyn is totally unelectable imo and until labour get a leadership change they are a total waste of time and I see no point in voting for the Greens.

I wouldn’t worry about U18 not getting the vote, none of the parties are worth voting for - Vote none of the above I say!

https://youtu.be/MOwesWn3vU4
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paul514
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#46
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#46
(Original post by Arran90)
I have wondered if the Brexit Party could win around 20% of the vote but only elect a couple of MPs because of the nature of the FPTP election system.

The trick of winning elections is to concentrate the votes to where they matter the most.

Take into account:

1. Labour patently cannot be trusted on Brexit. More recently Labour ministers have stated that Labour is a Remain party. Jeremy Corbyn wants another referendum with Remain as an option.

2. Jeremy Corbyn is part of a Metropolitan elite and is despised by white working class British voters from (former?) industrial towns in the north of England. His shadow cabinet contains truly gut-wrenching individuals.

3. There may have been voter complacency in 2017 as Jeremy Corbyn was viewed as a joke except by Momentum supporters and Marxists. Now there is real fear that he is knocking on the gates of power and is within grasping distance of becoming the next PM.

4. Voters seemed to 'entrust' the Conservatives that they will deliver Brexit back in 2017. That general election was uncalled for by the public, unwanted, and completely unnecessary. Now we have overshot two Brexit deadlines as a result of the Conservative's failure to deliver. Leave voters are getting angry and frustrated with the entire process. Brexit delayed is Brexit denied! They know that this general election is the Brexit general election - and effectively a second referendum.

5. If Labour loses seats to the Brexit Party in their former heartlands then the party will view it as a stinging retaliation by the Leave voters for the party's ambiguity and dishonesty when it comes to the policy on Brexit. If the Brexit Party is a damp squib in their former heartlands then it gives the message that the white working class British voters who voted Leave there aren't sincere about Brexit.
They won’t lose seats to the brexit party.

5 million leave voters and at least 80% of them will still vote for labour in a GE.

You are giving way too much weight to that argument just like you are giving way too much weight to voters were entrusting the conservatives to deliver brexit when labour also said they would in 2017.
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Burton Bridge
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#47
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#47
(Original post by paul514)
I also agree the brexit party won’t get anything significant in fact I would be surprised if they got a seat.
What they will do is make a renain parliamentarian more likely!
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Napp
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#48
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#48
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
What they will do is make a renain parliamentarian more likely!
I'm seriously starting to question your democratic and mathematical credentials if you honestly think the entirety of parliament should be rammed full of proselytizing brexstremist zealots like in some backwards Stalinist tip.
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SHallowvale
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#49
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#49
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
What they will do is make a renain parliamentarian more likely!
Is this... a problem?
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Arran90
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#50
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#50
(Original post by paul514)
5 million leave voters and at least 80% of them will still vote for labour in a GE.
It will be disappointing if this happens and it will raise questions whether large numbers of voters do not back up their words with actions.

A similar parallel to what I was told by a member of the BNP about large numbers of white British folk getting frustrated and uptight about immigration and Islam but when it came to election day they voted Labour even with a BNP candidate on the ballot slip. They don't back up their words with actions.

(Original post by Burton Bridge)
What they will do is make a renain parliamentarian more likely!
It depends on where the Brexit Party fields candidates. If they focus mainly on solidly Labour Leave seats and avoid certain marginal seats winnable by the Conservatives then no.
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Andrew97
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#51
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What is highly likely is that the Cons and Brexit party won’t be getting many remain votes, for obvious reasons.
And any leaver would have to be a tit to vote Lib Dem.

The Cons will probs be the largest party and could form a majority, I doubt Corbyn can without being propped up by the SNP (which would terrify a fair bunch of English Voters)
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mjhmichael18
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#52
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#52
I think it will more than likely be the Conservative party or the Liberal Democrats as Labour are in a confused position in parliament so it is unlikely they will win.
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the bear
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#53
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#53
people are unable to trust Tragic Grandpa. we do not really want to Sovietize our country. the Labour votes will bleed away mainly to the Liberal Democrats and to a lesser extent to Nigel's stormtroopers sturdy patriots.

so it is likely that the Tories will be back, with a comfortable majority. Boris will be able to get us out of the EU as the people voted for in 2016.
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Arran90
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#54
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#54
(Original post by the bear)
people are unable to trust Tragic Grandpa. we do not really want to Sovietize our country. the Labour votes will bleed away mainly to the Liberal Democrats and to a lesser extent to Nigel's stormtroopers sturdy patriots.

so it is likely that the Tories will be back, with a comfortable majority. Boris will be able to get us out of the EU as the people voted for in 2016.
I'm of the opinion that Labour has a larger 'base' vote than the Conservatives - that is people who vote Labour rain or shine regardless of whether Corbyn or Blair is its leader. The Euro Election results this year further reinforce this view.

The FPTP election system can work to their advantage because of this.
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Kitten in boots
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#55
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#55
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
What they will do is make a renain parliamentarian more likely!
This is why I look forward to the Brexit Party’s involvement.

If enough leave voters fall for Farage’s simplistic demagoguery again, it will split the leave vote in such a way that remainers dominate Parliament and we can put an end to this Brexit nonsense that has done so much damage to our country.
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Arran90
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#56
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#56
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
This is why I look forward to the Brexit Party’s involvement.

If enough leave voters fall for Farage’s simplistic demagoguery again, it will split the leave vote in such a way that remainers dominate Parliament and we can put an end to this Brexit nonsense that has done so much damage to our country.
And if enough Remain voters decide to plump for the Lib-Dems then it will split the Remain vote in such a way that the Conservatives will be back either on their own or in coalition with the Brexit Party.

How about if the Lib-Dems poll really well (like at least 60 MPs) but Jo Swinson loses her East Dunbartonshire seat to the SNP?
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paul514
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#57
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#57
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
What they will do is make a renain parliamentarian more likely!
Exactly, like I said a vote for the brexit party is a vote for remain
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paul514
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#58
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#58
(Original post by Arran90)
It depends on where the Brexit Party fields candidates. If they focus mainly on solidly Labour Leave seats and avoid certain marginal seats winnable by the Conservatives then no.
People will vote on more than brexit though and most of those old labour votes as in the non metropolitan voters vote labour because I always have, my dad did and his dad before him, labour are for the working class etc
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Burton Bridge
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#59
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#59
(Original post by SHallowvale)
Is this... a problem?
You think thousands of people voting for brexit but their votes will actually make remain more likely is healthy for democracy? This is because of the back room undemocratic remain packs.

(Original post by Napp)
I'm seriously starting to question your democratic and mathematical credentials if you honestly think the entirety of parliament should be rammed full of proselytizing brexstremist zealots like in some backwards Stalinist tip.
I never said anything like that, I'm only saying the existence of the Brexit party actually helps remain.
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Burton Bridge
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#60
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#60
(Original post by Arran90)
It depends on where the Brexit Party fields candidates. If they focus mainly on solidly Labour Leave seats and avoid certain marginal seats winnable by the Conservatives then no.
Well I dont think that will happen because I think farage secretly wishes for this to continue for personal gain. I dont think a leave pact will happen.
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