Who do you think will win the next general election? Watch

paul514
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#81
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#81
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
I read that myself but I'm not convinced that will happen, I fear farage actually does not want the impasse to end, time will tell.
Footage of them getting the point


https://youtu.be/T5cX2iaD_v4
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frogglet
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#82
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#82
Labour. Then corbyn calls a referendum and vote to remain wins.
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paul514
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#83
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#83
(Original post by frogglet)
Labour. Then corbyn calls a referendum and vote to remain wins.
Two referendums don’t forget the Scottish one he needs to offer the SNP for their support
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Burton Bridge
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#84
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#84
(Original post by frogglet)
Labour. Then corbyn calls a referendum and vote to remain wins.
I highly doubt that but time will tell.
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paul514
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#85
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#85
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
I highly doubt that but time will tell.

https://www.facebook.com/28334812168...=e&d=n&sfns=mo

Who could have predicted he would come out with this as a campaign line 😱
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Burton Bridge
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#86
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#86
(Original post by paul514)
https://www.facebook.com/28334812168...=e&d=n&sfns=mo

Who could have predicted he would come out with this as a campaign line 😱
That brought a interview with Borris Johnson up mate? Wrong link?
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paul514
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#87
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#87
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
That brought a interview with Borris Johnson up mate? Wrong link?
Right link.... ‘a vote for anyone that isn’t us is a vote for Corbyn’
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Burton Bridge
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#88
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#88
(Original post by paul514)
Right link.... ‘a vote for anyone that isn’t us is a vote for Corbyn’
Awww drrrr sorry, I'm a bit slow there mate

Its kind of true and not at the same time, the truth is UKIP in 2015 in some northern constituencies helped the Tories and hurt labour but that flipped on it head down south with the tiries feeling the vote squeeze.

I dont believe in tactical voting because I think it's a form of corruption, but voters need to be aware of it. The more I think of it the more I regret voting FPTP in the AV referendum.
Last edited by Burton Bridge; 2 weeks ago
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paul514
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#89
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#89
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Awww drrrr sorry, I'm a bit slow there mate

Its kind of true and not at the same time, the truth is UKIP in 2015 in some northern constituencies helped the Tories and hurt labour but that flipped on it head down south with the tiries feeling the vote squeeze.

I dont believe in tactical voting because I think it's a form of corruption, but voters need to be aware of it. The more I think of it the more I regret voting FPTP in the AV referendum.
It will categorically hurt the conservatives in this election in marginals
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Rakas21
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#90
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#90
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Awww drrrr sorry, I'm a bit slow there mate

Its kind of true and not at the same time, the truth is UKIP in 2015 in some northern constituencies helped the Tories and hurt labour but that flipped on it head down south with the tiries feeling the vote squeeze.

I dont believe in tactical voting because I think it's a form of corruption, but voters need to be aware of it. The more I think of it the more I regret voting FPTP in the AV referendum.
AV would have probably produced a Tory majority in 2017. It only really works proportionally when you have a strong third party (so a more marginal 2005 and 2010, probably Tory majorities in 15 and 17)
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Burton Bridge
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#91
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#91
(Original post by Rakas21)
AV would have probably produced a Tory majority in 2017. It only really works proportionally when you have a strong third party (so a more marginal 2005 and 2010, probably Tory majorities in 15 and 17)
I believe it would provide a fairer system, I do understand the argument against losing local reputsentation acting on behalf of local people, however the party whips largely cancel this out.

I dunno mate, personally I think people should get what they are voting for, one of my main reasons for voting brexit was democracy. If the people keep voting for you lot (Tories) let's have the tories and let people see them for what they are.
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Snufkin
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#92
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#92
I think a hung parliament is very likely, with Labour having the most seats, and the SNP and Lib Dems making big gains. Despite current polls, I think the Tories will do worse than they did in 2017.
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paul514
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#93
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#93
(Original post by Snufkin)
I think a hung parliament is very likely, with Labour having the most seats, and the SNP and Lib Dems making big gains. Despite current polls, I think the Tories will do worse than they did in 2017.
Labour will not get more seats than the conservatives.

The issue is all the greens, Lib Dem’s, welsh and Scottish nationalists will do a deal to form a government with them
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SHallowvale
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#94
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#94
I'm surprised that people are talking about there being a hung parliament. Judging by the polls, the Conservatives are going to nail it.
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Burton Bridge
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#95
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#95
(Original post by SHallowvale)
I'm surprised that people are talking about there being a hung parliament. Judging by the polls, the Conservatives are going to nail it.
Arr but the polls don't provide accurate feeling all the time, as I've been saying for months.

This general is going to be interesting, for those politically interested like myself
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Arran90
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#96
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#96
(Original post by frogglet)
Labour. Then corbyn calls a referendum and vote to remain wins.
Labour have two trump cards to play.

1. Not everybody has a strong opinion on Brexit. There are large numbers of voters who have a don't know, don't care, don't mind attitude when it comes to Britain's membership of the EU. Labour, with its ambiguous position on Brexit and a leader who sits on the fence, has been reasonably effective at attracting the support of such people. There are also other people who simply don't want this Brexit fiasco to drag on for any longer and our politicians to go back to running the country and focusing on domestic issues that actually matter.

2. Nearly 10 years of austerity under the Conservatives. There are probably millions of hard done by folk who say "enough is enough" when it comes to poverty, cutbacks, Universal Credit, DWP sanctions, public sector pay freezes, foodbanks, the bedroom tax, and only Labour can put an end to this misery. Stuff Brexit. Independence from the EU doesn't buy bread, doesn't pay the electric bill, doesn't put an end to teachers having to buy the kids they teach new trousers from their already frozen salaries. Such people probably also say stuff anti-Semitism, stuff the Armed Forces, stuff Foreign Policy, stuff the Falkland Islands, my family's needs come first.
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the bear
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#97
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#97
vote Corbyn, get Stalin

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SHallowvale
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#98
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#98
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Arr but the polls don't provide accurate feeling all the time, as I've been saying for months.

This general is going to be interesting, for those politically interested like myself
They have since 1997. That's over 20 years of pretty good predictions. While few of them have been exactly right, they haven't failed in giving us an approximation of what we should expect (percentages wise).
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Pencil
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#99
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#99
(Original post by Snufkin)
I think a hung parliament is very likely, with Labour having the most seats, and the SNP and Lib Dems making big gains. Despite current polls, I think the Tories will do worse than they did in 2017.
I think the majority of the public are very angry with Labour for delaying Brexit.

I think Labour face being mutilated in this election. I think Remainers will get behind the Lib Dems and make them the opposition party. The Brexit Party will take away the Tories' majority, splitting the Brexit vote.
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nulli tertius
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#100
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#100
(Original post by SHallowvale)
They have since 1997. That's over 20 years of pretty good predictions. While few of them have been exactly right, they haven't failed in giving us an approximation of what we should expect (percentages wise).
In 1997 only two late ICM polls (with other late ICM polls telling a different story) between January 2016 and polling date in April 1997 had the result as close as it actually was.

In 2001 no poll between the first week of November 2000 and the election in June 2001 put the result as close as it actually was.

In 2005 no poll in the last month before the election put the result as close as it actually was.

In 2010 the polls were generally accurate

In 2015 no poll had the lead as large as it actually turned out to be.

In 2017 several late polls by Survation only spotted the move away from May.

Can you see the trend?

The actual result has been an outlier in every year apart from 2010.
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