Who do you think will win the next general election?

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Burton Bridge
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#121
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#121
(Original post by SHallowvale)
Of the non-Blair years, two of the three election polls we had predicted the party with the most vote correctly.

Since 1997, there haven't been any set of polls similar to what we're seeing now which predicted the wrong outcome. As far as the current predicted lead is concerned, we'll see a repeat of 1997 or 2001.
Well time will tell, we will speak about this on December 13th. I seriously doubt a 1997 style landslide. I did think there will be a remainer blood bath and have been talking about it for a while but I'm not so confident now.

Time will tell
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Vinny C
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#122
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#122
(Original post by AnonymousGuest)
There's going to be an election soon, whether that be in December or next year, so I'm asking everyone who they would vote for (regardless of age) and why.

Personally, for me I think the Conservatives are becoming too right wing and Labour becoming too left wing, so ideally I would support a centrist party like the Lib Dems but I don't think they have enough support to win a general election yet(I may be wrong).

That being said I would prefer the Labour Party over the Conservatives. I don't like Corbyn mainly because of McDonnell but compared to Johnson and Cummings, I would definitely support Labour but I'm not old enough to vote. That's my opinion anway so feel free to express whatever your opinion is but please do not abuse anyone or use offensive language.
A wise analysis.
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Vinny C
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#123
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#123
(Original post by paul514)
The result will either be conservatives in power or a coalition of every other party combined with a tiny majority.

That would mean staying in the EU and the SNP being granted a second independence referendum.

In reality if the brexit party continues to poll at the level it is currently the conservatives will win a majority.
Rofl... Brexiteer *******s alarm!
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username5008580
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#124
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#124
(Original post by ColinDent)
How many times, the 28% do not count.
Do not count as what?
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ColinDent
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#125
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#125
(Original post by AnonymousGuest)
Do not count as what?
The only opinions that mattered on the day were those that cast their votes, you could just as easily argue that 80% of people didn't vote to remain.
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username5008580
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#126
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#126
(Original post by ColinDent)
The only opinions that mattered on the day were those that cast their votes, you could just as easily argue that 80% of people didn't vote to remain.
I was just highlighting what 'public' means. Yes non-voters' opinions did not matter on the day, but what I am trying to say is that what Pencil said, " I think the majority of the public are very angry with Labour for delaying Brexit' is incorrect. The public refers to everyone and recents poll indicate most people would support remain in a second referendum, and since he is talking about current time, it doesn't matter what you voted in 2016, what matters is your opinions now because someone who didn't vote in 2016 would now vote in a theoretical second referendum and vice-versa. Therefore he should've said most Brexiteers/Leavers because it's not clear now which side has the majority public support at this current moment in time.
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ColinDent
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#127
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#127
(Original post by AnonymousGuest)
I was just highlighting what 'public' means. Yes non-voters' opinions did not matter on the day, but what I am trying to say is that what Pencil said, " I think the majority of the public are very angry with Labour for delaying Brexit' is incorrect. The public refers to everyone and recents poll indicate most people would support remain in a second referendum, and since he is talking about current time, it doesn't matter what you voted in 2016, what matters is your opinions now because someone who didn't vote in 2016 would now vote in a theoretical second referendum and vice-versa. Therefore he should've said most Brexiteers/Leavers because it's not clear now which side has the majority public support at this current moment in time.
Polls most certainly do not show that the majority of the public now back a 2nd referendum.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...uropean-union/

It would also appear that those polls suggesting that remain would win are possibly slightly misleading.

https://fullfact.org/europe/do-61-percent-back-remain/
Last edited by ColinDent; 1 year ago
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username5008580
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#128
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#128
(Original post by ColinDent)
Polls most certainly do not show that the majority of the public now back a 2nd referendum.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...uropean-union/

It would also appear that those polls suggesting that remain would win are possibly slightly misleading.

https://fullfact.org/europe/do-61-percent-back-remain/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sta...476.html%3famp
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ColinDent
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#129
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#129
Those figures are excluding don't knows, would there still be over 50% against leaving if you included those?
And yes in the case of an opinion poll it does make a difference because you cannot expressly say how many of each camp would actually vote on the day, you also have to include a margin of error.
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QE2
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#130
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#130
(Original post by ColinDent)
The only opinions that mattered on the day were those that cast their votes, you could just as easily argue that 80% of people didn't vote to remain.
Are you still banging on about the referendum result? That's old history. With two general elections and EU elections since the referendum, it will be utterly irrelevant. It's like people still going on about the 66 World Cup.
Let it go. The world has moved on.
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QE2
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#131
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#131
(Original post by ColinDent)
Polls most certainly do not show that the majority of the public now back a 2nd referendum.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...uropean-union/

It would also appear that those polls suggesting that remain would win are possibly slightly misleading.

https://fullfact.org/europe/do-61-percent-back-remain/
Careful with those opinion polls, you'll upset Burton.

However, as you've brought them up, this one from a few days ago has Remain beating Leave by 52% to 45%.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...he-referendum/

Also, the first poll you cite is irrelevant because the public do not decide if there is another referendum, only how they would vote in it, and the polls say they would vote Remain. And the article form FullFact still has Remain with a substantial lead, even when other Leave options are added.
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QE2
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#132
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#132
(Original post by ColinDent)
Those figures are excluding don't knows, would there still be over 50% against leaving if you included those?
You have already said that people who don't vote don't count. But now you are claiming they do? Hmm...
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Burton Bridge
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#133
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#133
(Original post by QE2)
Careful with those opinion polls, you'll upset Burton.
As flattered as I am that you have a crush on me, I'm not interested so stop mentioning me all the time
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QE2
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#134
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#134
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
As flattered as I am that you have a crush on me, I'm not interested so stop mentioning me all the time
So it's ok when Colin cites polls (incorrectly) to support Leave but not when others use them (accurately) to support Remain.
Fair enough. Why did I expect anything different from you?
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Burton Bridge
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#135
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#135
(Original post by QE2)
So it's ok when Colin cites polls (incorrectly) to support Leave but not when others use them (accurately) to support Remain.
Fair enough. Why did I expect anything different from you?
No that's not what I said, learn to read
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QE2
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#136
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#136
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
No that's not what I said, learn to read
You complained about people citing polls, claiming they are inaccurate and getting worse.
You are quite entitled to do that (although you were wrong), but you must be consistent and challenge the use of opinion polls when they are used to support Leave as well. Most people understand these basics of debate, but I guess it must be somewhere on that mammoth list of yours.
Last edited by QE2; 1 year ago
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Burton Bridge
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#137
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#137
(Original post by QE2)
You complained about people citing polls, claiming they are inaccurate and getting worse.
You are quite entitled to do that (although you are wrong), but you must be consistent and challenge the use of opinion polls when they are used to support Leave as well. Most people understand these basics of debate, but I guess it must be somewhere on that mammoth list of yours.
:yawn:
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paul514
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#138
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#138
(Original post by QE2)
You complained about people citing polls, claiming they are inaccurate and getting worse.
You are quite entitled to do that (although you were wrong), but you must be consistent and challenge the use of opinion polls when they are used to support Leave as well. Most people understand these basics of debate, but I guess it must be somewhere on that mammoth list of yours.
Why don’t you two just have sex and get it over with
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QE2
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#139
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#139
(Original post by paul514)
Why don’t you two just have sex and get it over with
He's a bit old for me.
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