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Poll: Will the Tories get a working majority on December 12th?
Yes (63)
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47.89%
Don't know (36)
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DJKL
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Oh 100% correct mate, nothing in politics is a given in particular in the current turbulent political climate. That said I staked by my prediction never before have I ever known such a huge working class backlash Against MPs for blocking the will of the people.
We all tend to get our own perceptions of what the mood is from those we met the most, catch is we tend to group with like minded individuals so we have group think risk. You may know lots of working class people with that view, I know lots of professional middle class voters (natural tories) where the Conservatives are getting their vote when hell freezes over; the key could be whose vote turns out before or after work on a dark December morning/evening.
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Vinny C
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#42
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#42
(Original post by Andrew97)
I heard this quote on TalkRADIO earlier today.

“Anna Soubry intends to stand and win in her constituency, I don’t think I’ve ever heard such a demented view of life ever”
I admire the woman. At least she is not willing to lick the arse of Cummings... yuck! You seem happy to.
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fallen_acorns
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#43
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#43
(Original post by DSilva)
Don't be so sure.

The Tories were supposed to win one of the biggest majorities ever in 2017 and we all know what happened. Not saying that they won't win, but it's certainly not a given.
I do think there will be a swing back to Labour, and it won't look as bad as it does now.

But one key difference that will mean its not as radical as it was in 2017 is that we all know Boris. With May, it was a case of: the less people knew about her, the more they liked her. When she was viewed as just a efficent politician who kept her head down, people liked her. But as soon as campaining happened and we learned more and more and saw that she was anything but the strong/stable image she put out.. it all came crumbling down.

The difference with Boris, that makes me think no such radical shift will happen this time, is that we all know Boris. Everyone knows what hes like, and everyone has formed their opinion.. the few who hadn't already done so by last summer, now have because the last few months. And to be honest, if the supreme court decision didn't put you off him, nothing will... the 35-40% who are saying they will support him, are highly unlikely to have their minds changed by anything he does or people say about him over the next month.

The unknowns for me that could shift around the ballance are the Lib Dems and the Brexit party.. if labour want to do well, they really have to hope that Farage comes out and splits the tory vote, rather than hoping that Boris self destructs as may did.
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fallen_acorns
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#44
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#44
Will be keeping an eye on what Labour do with their Brexit message.

I can't believe their stratagy is to keep it as it is currently. The whole 'We will re-negotiate, but guarentee a referendum on our deal, where our MPs are free to campaign against their own deal' is just stupid, and only a tiny tiny number of hard-core religious labour voters can't see it. It gets laughed at everytime its mentioned on shows like question time because of how planely awful it is.

Its fine as a fence-sitting possition for them when there is no election.. but I can't imagine that this is what they are going to take to the door-step. Are MPs like Emily Thornberry going to go around and say "Well my plan is to negotiate the best deal, as part of the cabinnet.. but then I intend to campaign against my own deal".

They must change it, surely...

Unless they hope they can do what they did in 2017 and shift the conversation away from Brexit.. but I can't see that happening these days. It worked in 2017 because the two main parties had identical possitions, and the Libs/UKIP were still on the fringe.. it won't work in 2019 where the lib dems are back with a radical possition.. Farage is back, the SNP and greens and Plaid are all taking strong possitions.. and Boris has a deal.

For me they must either go full 2nd ref.. or full 'leave, but with our own negotiation'. They can't keep this middle option and win.
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fallen_acorns
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#45
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#45
As for the Tories, I think that Boris' is going to find out that its much harder to campaign on his deal, than it was to present it to the people as the only option to stop remainers taking over.

Its not the only option for Brexiteers now.. Farage has a lovely nicely wrapped box for them, who knows whats inside it, but for this election he'll say its exactly what they want.
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DSilva
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#46
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#46
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Will be keeping an eye on what Labour do with their Brexit message.

I can't believe their stratagy is to keep it as it is currently. The whole 'We will re-negotiate, but guarentee a referendum on our deal, where our MPs are free to campaign against their own deal' is just stupid, and only a tiny tiny number of hard-core religious labour voters can't see it. It gets laughed at everytime its mentioned on shows like question time because of how planely awful it is.

Its fine as a fence-sitting possition for them when there is no election.. but I can't imagine that this is what they are going to take to the door-step. Are MPs like Emily Thornberry going to go around and say "Well my plan is to negotiate the best deal, as part of the cabinnet.. but then I intend to campaign against my own deal".

They must change it, surely...

Unless they hope they can do what they did in 2017 and shift the conversation away from Brexit.. but I can't see that happening these days. It worked in 2017 because the two main parties had identical possitions, and the Libs/UKIP were still on the fringe.. it won't work in 2019 where the lib dems are back with a radical possition.. Farage is back, the SNP and greens and Plaid are all taking strong possitions.. and Boris has a deal.

For me they must either go full 2nd ref.. or full 'leave, but with our own negotiation'. They can't keep this middle option and win.
It's really not that unreasonable to say 'we'll see what the best deal we can get it's, and then decide if that's better than the current arrangements'. It's like seeing what the best price you can get for a house is, and then deciding whether to go through with it.
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harrysbar
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#47
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#47
Hopefully it's icy on the 12th December and none of the oldies want to leave the house
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fallen_acorns
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#48
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#48
(Original post by DSilva)
It's really not that unreasonable to say 'we'll see what the best deal we can get it's, and then decide if that's better than the current arrangements'. It's like seeing what the best price you can get for a house is, and then deciding whether to go through with it.
Lets take your House analogy, but make it correct by changing one thing:

In brexit - the EU doesn't want to sell the house. Their ultimate goal is to keep the house the way it was before. They are not a willing seller as you are portraying them to be in your analogy.

So in reality, your sat in someones house saying you want to buy it.. and they are saying 'no, we don't want to sell you the house'. Your post is misleading because when you buy a house, normally you are buying from a willing seller.. its a negotiation between two parties who both want the same outcome.

The tory plan is: Lets negotiate the best price for the house.. but if you refuse, we won't leave or give up. we will stay here and force you to negotiate even if it means damaging both of us.

The labour plan is: Lets negotiate the best price for the house.. after you give us your price, we will take it back to our family to vote on your price. By the way, half of our family don't actually want to buy your house.

---

Be 100% honest. Which of those gives you the best price.

In the first option, the Seller (who remember, doesn't want to sell) has motivation to do something they don't want to do. Its not great motivation because it hurts the buyer as well.. but its motivation not to just refuse.

In the second option, why would the seller ever offer a good price? If the house is worth 200k, why would they not ask for 2 million? What motivation do they have? They don't want to sell it after all.. and they know that your going to put their price to a vote, where half of the people don't want it anyway.. surely their best path to victory is to give you an unsreasonably bad offer, so that you vote against it, and they keep their house.

---

Spoiler:
Show
This is the common sense of netogiating that the vast vast majority of the public can see. You won't get a good deal unless out of a negotiation unless you have leverage. If you promise a vote on the deal, and you make it so that your own members can vote against it.. you have 0 leverage. There is no motivation at all for the EU to offer a deal..

The thing is, in my experiance most Labour members know this is true - but they are ok with because they want to remain. They know that the labour policy is bassically remain in all but name - its a longwinded way of making sure we stay in, whilst looking like you wanted to leave. Its tricky, but it could work for those who want to remain. There is another smaller, more deluded group though who have no clue about negotiations and power balances, and actually believe that Corbyn can sit down with the EU and say 'Give us a better deal than you gave Boris.. Why? Because were going to vote on it, and if you give us a good deal, you probably won't get what you want (us to stay in) but if you give us a bad deal.. its more likely you will'.

Cherry on the cake:

Thornberry and others, who would be some of the cheif MPs in charge of making the deal, have already declared they will campaign against it, no matter what, because they are remainers.. so the cherry on the cake is that the labour people who are trying to get the (impossible) deal without any leverage at all..don't even support the deal they are trying to make!</div>
Last edited by fallen_acorns; 2 weeks ago
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DSilva
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#49
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#49
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Lets take your House analogy, but make it correct by changing one thing:

In brexit - the EU doesn't want to sell the house. Their ultimate goal is to keep the house the way it was before. They are not a willing seller as you are portraying them to be in your analogy.

So in reality, your sat in someones house saying you want to buy it.. and they are saying 'no, we don't want to sell you the house'. Your post is misleading because when you buy a house, normally you are buying from a willing seller.. its a negotiation between two parties who both want the same outcome.

The tory plan is: Lets negotiate the best price for the house.. but if you refuse, we won't leave or give up. we will stay here and force you to negotiate even if it means damaging both of us.

The labour plan is: Lets negotiate the best price for the house.. after you give us your price, we will take it back to our family to vote on your price. By the way, half of our family don't actually want to buy your house.

---

Be 100% honest. Which of those gives you the best price.

In the first option, the Seller (who remember, doesn't want to sell) has motivation to do something they don't want to do. Its not great motivation because it hurts the buyer as well.. but its motivation not to just refuse.

In the second option, why would the seller ever offer a good price? If the house is worth 200k, why would they not ask for 2 million? What motivation do they have? They don't want to sell it after all.. and they know that your going to put their price to a vote, where half of the people don't want it anyway.. surely their best path to victory is to give you an unsreasonably bad offer, so that you vote against it, and they keep their house.

---

Spoiler:
Show
This is the common sense of netogiating that the vast vast majority of the public can see. You won't get a good deal unless out of a negotiation unless you have leverage. If you promise a vote on the deal, and you make it so that your own members can vote against it.. you have 0 leverage. There is no motivation at all for the EU to offer a deal..

The thing is, in my experiance most Labour members know this is true - but they are ok with because they want to remain. They know that the labour policy is bassically remain in all but name - its a longwinded way of making sure we stay in, whilst looking like you wanted to leave. Its tricky, but it could work for those who want to remain. There is another smaller, more deluded group though who have no clue about negotiations and power balances, and actually believe that Corbyn can sit down with the EU and say 'Give us a better deal than you gave Boris.. Why? Because were going to vote on it, and if you give us a good deal, you probably won't get what you want (us to stay in) but if you give us a bad deal.. its more likely you will'.

Cherry on the cake:

Thornberry and others, who would be some of the cheif MPs in charge of making the deal, have already declared they will campaign against it, no matter what, because they are remainers.. so the cherry on the cake is that the labour people who are trying to get the (impossible) deal without any leverage at all..don't even support the deal they are trying to make!</div>
Well it depends on what you regard as a better deal. I personally think we should leave, but that we should maintain close arrangements with the EU. A soft Brexit, you may say. I think Corbyn is more likely to achieve that than Johnson.

But Brexit isn't the only issue despite what the media are saying. Just wander around a major city and see the levels of homelessness, and then say how the only important issue is Brexit. Or the impact that cuts to education are having, or our social care system which has basically collapsed. Or the two year waiting lists for mental health services.

Yes Brexit is important, but Labour must be able to shift the debate onto domestic issues. Corbyn is lukewarm on Brexit, but the bread and butter every day issues are what drives him and get him out of bed in the morning. You can see his passion shine through when he talks about the NHS in a way that it just doesn't on Brexit.
Last edited by DSilva; 2 weeks ago
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Napp
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#50
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#50
(Original post by DSilva)
It's really not that unreasonable to say 'we'll see what the best deal we can get it's, and then decide if that's better than the current arrangements'. It's like seeing what the best price you can get for a house is, and then deciding whether to go through with it.
True but to alter your analogy slighty, this is more like owning a nice watch and then going to the local pawn brokers to flog it. You will never get as good a deal as you already have and whilst you might get something from this 'deal' it will be inferior in every way to what you currently have.
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DSilva
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#51
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#51
(Original post by Napp)
True but to alter your analogy slighty, this is more like owning a nice watch and then going to the local pawn brokers to flog it. You will never get as good a deal as you already have and whilst you might get something from this 'deal' it will be inferior in every way to what you currently have.
And Brexiteers will say the opposite. It's an unbelievably polarising issue. It represents some form of a compromise. If you don't like the deal you'll have the chance to vote to remain.

If you live in a Lib Dem - Tory marginal then by all means vote Lib Dem. But if you vote Lib Dem in a Labour - Tory marginal it will just split the remain/second refendudn vote, allow the Tories in and ensure we get the hardest of Brexits.
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Napp
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#52
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#52
(Original post by DSilva)
And Brexiteers will say the opposite. It's an unbelievably polarising issue. It represents some form of a compromise. If you don't like the deal you'll have the chance to vote to remain.
The brexiteers have already been proven demonstrably wrong...
How so? There won't be another referendum.
If you live in a Lib Dem - Tory marginal then by all means vote Lib Dem. But if you vote Lib Dem in a Labour - Tory marginal it will just split the remain/second refendudn vote, allow the Tories in and ensure we get the hardest of Brexits.
I live in neither, although technically i dont even live in the country, however my constituency is a solid tory one without a snowballs chance in hell of ever changing from that. Ones vote, for all its worth, is worth nothing more than a protest vote that is of no consequence.
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Fullofsurprises
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#53
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#53
(Original post by CoolCavy)
:five:


:hugs:
Those voting Guineas look so happy! :love: I suspect they voted Green, Guineas are fond of greens.
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Fullofsurprises
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#54
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#54
(Original post by Napp)
I live in neither, although technically i dont even live in the country, however my constituency is a solid tory one without a snowballs chance in hell of ever changing from that. Ones vote, for all its worth, is worth nothing more than a protest vote that is of no consequence.
I do tend to think that if you live in a constituency where the dominant party is overwhelmingly dominant, you are free to vote for an interesting third or fourth party that offers a different and exciting view, like, say, the Green Party.
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Napp
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#55
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#55
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I do tend to think that if you live in a constituency where the dominant party is overwhelmingly dominant, you are free to vote for an interesting third or fourth party that offers a different and exciting view, like, say, the Green Party.
To be honest, i'd be more inclined to write abusive messages to the incumbent MP pointing out that he's a spineless, useless, thieving, ****.
Although i've always lamented the fact the OMRLP don't field a candidate in my area.
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fallen_acorns
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#56
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#56
(Original post by DSilva)
Well it depends on what you regard as a better deal. I personally think we should leave, but that we should maintain close arrangements with the EU. A soft Brexit, you may say. I think Corbyn is more likely to achieve that than Johnson.

But Brexit isn't the only issue despite what the media are saying. Just wander around a major city and see the levels of homelessness, and then say how the only important issue is Brexit. Or the impact that cuts to education are having, or our social care system which has basically collapsed. Or the two year waiting lists for mental health services.

Yes Brexit is important, but Labour must be able to shift the debate onto domestic issues. Corbyn is lukewarm on Brexit, but the bread and butter every day issues are what drives him and get him out of bed in the morning. You can see his passion shine through when he talks about the NHS in a way that it just doesn't on Brexit.
I agree with you on Labour's domestic policy, and its why I have a lot of time for the Labour MPs who wanted an election after Brexit. From what I see and observe in the UK political space, if you remove brexit from the equasion, the general apatite of the public is for Labour-type policies currently.

I would strongly consider voting for them, if brexit weren't an issue, and their front-bench was somewhat less radical/incompetent. And to be honest, I think the nation would too.. remove Corbyn, get brexit over with (which ever way it goes) and then Labour will swing back into power for a while..

--

But for brexit, it doesn't matter whether you want a soft or hard brexit, the EU wants no brexit. So it still makes Labours position entirely incapable of doing what it says it will do, and only really capable of pushing us to remain. If that's the case, I would rather they be honest and just come out for remain. I gues they are hoping that enough working-class leave voters will be fooled into thinking that they are still a 'leave' party to make up for the Lib voters who will leave them for not being remain enough.
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Andrew97
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#57
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#57
(Original post by harrysbar)
Hopefully it's icy on the 12th December and none of the oldies want to leave the house
They would have it postally before the 12th. 😂
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Fullofsurprises
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#58
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#58
(Original post by Napp)
To be honest, i'd be more inclined to write abusive messages to the incumbent MP pointing out that he's a spineless, useless, thieving, ****.
Although i've always lamented the fact the OMRLP don't field a candidate in my area.
The safer the seat, the more the opportunities for the MP to be useless, lazy, self-serving or (the most common symptom) obsessed with causes about which their constituents know little and care even less.

It would shock many voters in many constituencies, particularly Tory ones, if they really knew what their MPs get up to, their lifestyles, views and actions. There are some complete *******s in their party. The voters often simply don't know, although of course many also don't care. The demise of local and regional news media has contributed to this decline of knowledge. Many MPs simply do as they please now, confident they will not be subjected to media scrutiny.
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DSilva
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#59
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#59
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
I agree with you on Labour's domestic policy, and its why I have a lot of time for the Labour MPs who wanted an election after Brexit. From what I see and observe in the UK political space, if you remove brexit from the equasion, the general apatite of the public is for Labour-type policies currently.

I would strongly consider voting for them, if brexit weren't an issue, and their front-bench was somewhat less radical/incompetent. And to be honest, I think the nation would too.. remove Corbyn, get brexit over with (which ever way it goes) and then Labour will swing back into power for a while..

--

But for brexit, it doesn't matter whether you want a soft or hard brexit, the EU wants no brexit. So it still makes Labours position entirely incapable of doing what it says it will do, and only really capable of pushing us to remain. If that's the case, I would rather they be honest and just come out for remain. I gues they are hoping that enough working-class leave voters will be fooled into thinking that they are still a 'leave' party to make up for the Lib voters who will leave them for not being remain enough.
Being radical isn't necessarily a bad thing. The Labour plans would be radcial in terms of health, education, social care and housing. But those are areas we need radical change on. It's no good having the Labour party essentially offering an ever so slightly watered down version of Tory policy.

On competence, I don't see how they are any more incompetent than the current lot. Its just the Tory part have the vast majority of the media on their side, parroting their lines. We have a media that spends the vast majority of its time scrutinising and slamming the opposition, while giving the government a free pass.
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fallen_acorns
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#60
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#60
(Original post by DSilva)
Being radical isn't necessarily a bad thing. The Labour plans would be radcial in terms of health, education, social care and housing. But those are areas we need radical change on. It's no good having the Labour party essentially offering an ever so slightly watered down version of Tory policy.

On competence, I don't see how they are any more incompetent than the current lot. Its just the Tory part have the vast majority of the media on their side, parroting their lines. We have a media that spends the vast majority of its time scrutinising and slamming the opposition, while giving the government a free pass.
I'm all for a bit of radical change. But the Labour plan is just too much and too quick. I can get behind some of their ideas, especially on nationalisation and healthcare. but then they come out win 20 more, on all different areas, and when you add it all up, its not possible at all. What I want is a Labour party that says 'this is what we would like to do ideally, but here is what we can actually do now.. get us into power and maybe the rest will happen in the future if its possible' - instead of a party that seems to say 'this is what we would like to do ideally, and vote for us and it will happen'.

There certainly are many incompetant tories, but generally their scope of imagination and ambition is so much less, I'd rather have a tory who will incompetantly try and change this a little bit.. than an incompetant labour MP who wants to radically shift things around in a huge way.
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