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Holding a general election in December is not a magic wand to end the Brexit deadlock. No party is clearly on track for a majority so it could all end in another hung parliament. What if:
1. The Conservatives clearly have the most MPs but are still short of a majority even with the DUP and Brexit Party MPs. Boris Johnson is re-elected.
2. Labour performs lacklustre but can create a small majority in coalition with Lib-Dem, Green, and SNP MPs. Jeremy Corbyn loses his Islington North seat to the Lib-Dems.
3. Lib-Dems elect over 50 MPs. Jo Swinson loses her East Dunbartonshire seat to the SNP.
4. SNP increases their number of MPs to nearly 50.
5. Caroline Lucas re-elected in Brighton Pavilion.
6. Brexit Party wins nearly 20% of the vote but only manages to elect 5 MPs.
7. DUP loses one seat (Belfast North to Sinn Fein?).
Where next with Brexit? If Parliament is a complete deadlock again then will the EU just give the ultimatum of a hard Brexit on 1 February 2020 if a deal cannot be passed with no more extensions available?
1. The Conservatives clearly have the most MPs but are still short of a majority even with the DUP and Brexit Party MPs. Boris Johnson is re-elected.
2. Labour performs lacklustre but can create a small majority in coalition with Lib-Dem, Green, and SNP MPs. Jeremy Corbyn loses his Islington North seat to the Lib-Dems.
3. Lib-Dems elect over 50 MPs. Jo Swinson loses her East Dunbartonshire seat to the SNP.
4. SNP increases their number of MPs to nearly 50.
5. Caroline Lucas re-elected in Brighton Pavilion.
6. Brexit Party wins nearly 20% of the vote but only manages to elect 5 MPs.
7. DUP loses one seat (Belfast North to Sinn Fein?).
Where next with Brexit? If Parliament is a complete deadlock again then will the EU just give the ultimatum of a hard Brexit on 1 February 2020 if a deal cannot be passed with no more extensions available?
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#2
I doubt the EU will accept any more extensions, unless a second referendum is guaranteed.
Alas it would take a near miracle for Corbyn to fall from electoral favour in Islington, too high a proportion of the locals have hero worshipped him for decades.
Alas it would take a near miracle for Corbyn to fall from electoral favour in Islington, too high a proportion of the locals have hero worshipped him for decades.
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#3
(Original post by londonmyst)
I doubt the EU will accept any more extensions, unless a second referendum is guaranteed.
I doubt the EU will accept any more extensions, unless a second referendum is guaranteed.
Alas it would take a near miracle for Corbyn to fall from electoral favour in Islington, too high a proportion of the locals have hero worshipped him for decades.
With that being said it is still a rather odd state of affairs given he is an unreconstructed Stalinist (more or less) and most of his policies will hurt the rather well healed people who live there.
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(Original post by londonmyst)
Alas it would take a near miracle for Corbyn to fall from electoral favour in Islington, too high a proportion of the locals have hero worshipped him for decades.
Alas it would take a near miracle for Corbyn to fall from electoral favour in Islington, too high a proportion of the locals have hero worshipped him for decades.
It must be taken into account that in the Euro Elections the voters weren't voting for Jeremy Corbyn if they voted Labour whereas they are in a general election, and Corbyn does have a sizeable personal vote. If however Labour is too ambiguous when it comes to Brexit or Corbyn does not have the will or the courage to commit himself or his party to Remain then it could be possible for Remain voters in his constituency to oust him by voting Lib-Dem.
There have been some surprise defeats in recent general elections such as Lembit Opik losing Montgomeryshire back in 2010 or the Conservatives winning several constituencies from the SNP in north east Scotland in 2017.
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