Could the DUP lose seats, particularly in Belfast, in this general election? Watch

Sharpshooter
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#1
Report Thread starter 2 weeks ago
#1
Northern Ireland has 18 of the 650 Westminster seats. DUP have 10, Sinn Fein 7, and Independent Unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon (who is a remainer). The DUP have maximised their seat count largely to due to running electoral pacts (which some see as sectarian) with the UUP who agreed to step aside in certain tight seats to stop a nationalist winning. DUP have 3 out of the 4 Belfast seats, North, South and East, but required an electoral pact in North Belfast in order to win there. The general election 2017 results were:

North Belfast
DUP - Nigel Dodds - 21,240 - 46.2%
Sinn Féin - John Finucane - 19,159 - 41.7%
Alliance - Sam Nelson - 2,475 - 5.4%
SDLP - Martin McAuley - 2,058 - 4.5%
Green (NI) - Malachi O'Hara - 644 - 1.4%
Workers' Party - Gemma Weir - 360 - 0.8%

South Belfast
DUP - Emma Little-Pengelly - 13,299 - 30.4%
SDLP - Alasdair McDonnell - 11,303 - 25.9%
Alliance - Paula Bradshaw - 7,946 - 18.2%
Sinn Féin - Máirtín Ó Muilleoir - 7,143 - 16.3%
Green (NI) - Clare Bailey - 2,241 - 5.1%
UUP Michael Henderson - 1,527 - 3.5%
NI Conservatives Clare Salier - 246 - 0.6%

East Belfast
DUP - Gavin Robinson - 23,917 - 55.8%
Alliance - Naomi Long - 15,443 - 36.0%
UUP Hazel Legge - 1,408 - 3.3%
Sinn Féin - Mairéad O'Donnell - 894 - 2.1%
Green (NI) - Georgina Milne - 561 - 1.3%
NI Conservatives - Sheila Bodel - 446 - 1.0%
SDLP - Séamas de Faoite - 167 - 0.4%
Independent - Bobby Beck - 54 - 0.1%

The SDLP resisted any attempts to run pacts with Sinn Fein citing it didn't want to engage in sectarian politics, so the nationalist vote was split in all 18 seats. However there has been some developments with new UUP leader Steve Aiken, who is a remainer and an opponent of Johnsons deal, is looking to take his party in a new direction and is willing to now stand in all 18 constituencies and not engage in pacts.

If the UUP stand in North Belfast that could be a game changer. The demographics are changing quite rapidly in Belfast with the nationalist vote increasing steadily. Unionism has resorted to pacts in North Belfast & Fermanagh and South Tyrone to combat demographic changes.

I have to say South Belfast is the most disappointing of the lot. Emma Little-Pengelly is a really poor fit for that seat, South Belfast voted 70% remain, is the arguably most affluent area of Northern Ireland, the most diverse and multicultural and ELP scrapes in with 30% in the loyalist working class areas (Sandy Row/Village, Taughmonagh, Belvoir) which don't represent the majority of South Belfast. The remain vote is split between SDLP/Sinn Fein/Alliance/Green and now the UUP. Nationalism is badly split currently in South Belfast.

In the East (where I'm going to be voting) Alliance won this seat in 2010 on the back of Peter Robinsons scandals but since putting fresh face Gavin Robinson (not related) they've won the seat back and increased his vote. Would like to see Alliance take this but the odds look slim.

In North Down remainer Lady Sylvia Hermon may lose her seat this time round to the DUP so that could be a BREXIT GAIN. The DUP might lose seats with some smart tactical voting by remainers and nationalism, but equally they may gain a seat and finish with 11. Fermanagh/South Tyrone will be another battle between Sinn Fein and the UUP, but the demographics are slowly moving away from unionism there.
0
reply
barnetlad
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#2
Report 2 weeks ago
#2
If the electoral pacts break down, I would hope that the cross-community parties benefited, not the old parties of hate and division.
0
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#3
Report 2 weeks ago
#3
(Original post by Sharpshooter)
Northern Ireland has 18 of the 650 Westminster seats. DUP have 10, Sinn Fein 7, and Independent Unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon (who is a remainer). The DUP have maximised their seat count largely to due to running electoral pacts (which some see as sectarian) with the UUP who agreed to step aside in certain tight seats to stop a nationalist winning. DUP have 3 out of the 4 Belfast seats, North, South and East, but required an electoral pact in North Belfast in order to win there. The general election 2017 results were:

North Belfast
DUP - Nigel Dodds - 21,240 - 46.2%
Sinn Féin - John Finucane - 19,159 - 41.7%
Alliance - Sam Nelson - 2,475 - 5.4%
SDLP - Martin McAuley - 2,058 - 4.5%
Green (NI) - Malachi O'Hara - 644 - 1.4%
Workers' Party - Gemma Weir - 360 - 0.8%

South Belfast
DUP - Emma Little-Pengelly - 13,299 - 30.4%
SDLP - Alasdair McDonnell - 11,303 - 25.9%
Alliance - Paula Bradshaw - 7,946 - 18.2%
Sinn Féin - Máirtín Ó Muilleoir - 7,143 - 16.3%
Green (NI) - Clare Bailey - 2,241 - 5.1%
UUP Michael Henderson - 1,527 - 3.5%
NI Conservatives Clare Salier - 246 - 0.6%

East Belfast
DUP - Gavin Robinson - 23,917 - 55.8%
Alliance - Naomi Long - 15,443 - 36.0%
UUP Hazel Legge - 1,408 - 3.3%
Sinn Féin - Mairéad O'Donnell - 894 - 2.1%
Green (NI) - Georgina Milne - 561 - 1.3%
NI Conservatives - Sheila Bodel - 446 - 1.0%
SDLP - Séamas de Faoite - 167 - 0.4%
Independent - Bobby Beck - 54 - 0.1%

The SDLP resisted any attempts to run pacts with Sinn Fein citing it didn't want to engage in sectarian politics, so the nationalist vote was split in all 18 seats. However there has been some developments with new UUP leader Steve Aiken, who is a remainer and an opponent of Johnsons deal, is looking to take his party in a new direction and is willing to now stand in all 18 constituencies and not engage in pacts.

If the UUP stand in North Belfast that could be a game changer. The demographics are changing quite rapidly in Belfast with the nationalist vote increasing steadily. Unionism has resorted to pacts in North Belfast & Fermanagh and South Tyrone to combat demographic changes.

I have to say South Belfast is the most disappointing of the lot. Emma Little-Pengelly is a really poor fit for that seat, South Belfast voted 70% remain, is the arguably most affluent area of Northern Ireland, the most diverse and multicultural and ELP scrapes in with 30% in the loyalist working class areas (Sandy Row/Village, Taughmonagh, Belvoir) which don't represent the majority of South Belfast. The remain vote is split between SDLP/Sinn Fein/Alliance/Green and now the UUP. Nationalism is badly split currently in South Belfast.

In the East (where I'm going to be voting) Alliance won this seat in 2010 on the back of Peter Robinsons scandals but since putting fresh face Gavin Robinson (not related) they've won the seat back and increased his vote. Would like to see Alliance take this but the odds look slim.

In North Down remainer Lady Sylvia Hermon may lose her seat this time round to the DUP so that could be a BREXIT GAIN. The DUP might lose seats with some smart tactical voting by remainers and nationalism, but equally they may gain a seat and finish with 11. Fermanagh/South Tyrone will be another battle between Sinn Fein and the UUP, but the demographics are slowly moving away from unionism there.
NI polls are few and far between even in general elections (Scotland and Wales will get them weekly for the last month or so) but the last poll suggested that vs 2017 the DUP/Sinn Fein were dropping back about 5% each while the Alliance was up about 10% (SDLP and UUP were about 2017 level).

Having had a look at the NI seats this suggests the main fights are (i have assumed that Sinn Feinn will hold the two SF-SDLP marginals since its the Alliance stealing votes)..

Belfast South - 6% swing required, polls suggest about 8% on universal swing - DUP loss to Alliance
Fermanagh - This is on paper a likely UUP gain from SF however i do not believe it is as likely to fall with the Alliance starting from 1.7% and so tactical voting taking place.

North Down - Herman has lost vote share the past two elections likely because of resource constraints. This should be a DUP gain from Independent.

- Although a lost of seats should become more marginal the Alliance are starting too far back to make hay and there are not enough really close DUP-SF battles to mean anything substantial.
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

what's your favourite season?

Summer (62)
32.8%
Spring (35)
18.52%
Autumn/Fall (46)
24.34%
Winter (36)
19.05%
I love them all equally (10)
5.29%

Watched Threads

View All