GE 2019 Prediction Competition Watch

Stiff Little Fingers
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#1
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#1
With just under 3 weeks until the election, it's time to put in your predictions for seat tallys. I'm in talks with the CT about the potential of a prize, but in the meantime, predict the seat tallys for each of the following parties, and who will win each of these marginals; whoever has the lowest total error (e.g. if you're 5 out on each then your total error is 40) wins and the marginal seats will act as tiebreakers (based on most correct predictions)

Parties

Conservatives -
Labour -
Lib Dems -
Brexit -
SNP -
Plaid Cymru -
DUP -
Sinn Fein -

Marginals

North East Fife -
Kensington -
Perth and North Perthshire -
Dudley North -
Newcastle Under Lyme -
Southampton Itchen -
Richmond Park -
Crewe and Nantwich -
Canterbury -
Thurrock -
Last edited by Stiff Little Fingers; 1 month ago
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Paracosm
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#2
Report 1 month ago
#2
Predictions:

Green - 650
Conservatives - 0
Labour - 0
Lib Dems - 0
Brexit - 0
SNP - 0
Plaid Cymru - 0
DUP - 0
Sinn Fein - 0
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Airmed
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#3
Report 1 month ago
#3
Northern Ireland being set on fire from its stupid mess.
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georgemacca
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#4
Report 1 month ago
#4
predictions

Conservatives 359
Labour 208
Lib Dems 17
Brexit 1
SNP 44
Plaid Cymru 3
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 7
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Saracen's Fez
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#5
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#5
Don't know if I can come back and edit this if things change massively but...

Parties

Conservatives - 346
Labour - 220 (incl. Speaker)
Lib Dems - 17
Brexit - 0
SNP - 42
Plaid Cymru - 5
DUP - 10
Sinn Féin - 7
(+ Alliance 1, Greens 1, Independent 1)

Marginals

North East Fife - SNP
Kensington - Tories
Perth and North Perthshire - SNP
Dudley North - Tories
Newcastle Under Lyme - Tories
Southampton Itchen - Tories
Richmond Park - Lib Dems
Crewe and Nantwich - Tories
Canterbury - Labour (just)
Thurrock - Still comfortably Tories
Last edited by Saracen's Fez; 1 month ago
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Stiff Little Fingers
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#6
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Don't know if I can come back and edit this if things change massively but...

Parties

Conservatives - 350
Labour - 189 (incl. Speaker)
Lib Dems - 20
Brexit - 0
SNP - 50
Plaid Cymru - 5
DUP - 10
Sinn Féin - 6
(+ Alliance 1, Greens 1, SDLP 1, Independents 2)

Marginals

North East Fife - Lib Dems
Kensington - Tories
Perth and North Perthshire - SNP
Dudley North - Tories
Newcastle Under Lyme - Tories
Southampton Itchen - Tories
Richmond Park - Lib Dems
Crewe and Nantwich - Tories
Canterbury - Tories (just)
Thurrock East - Not marginal so obviously Tories?
You can change entries up until the end of the 11th of December, once the election day starts entries are final.

Ah, good catch on Thurrock East. That should actually be Thurrock (won by ~300 votes in 2017 - I took the 10 from an inews list of the 30 closest marginals that was printed incorrectly), I'll correct that in the OP, you're welcome to change your prediction based on that.
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fallen_acorns
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#7
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#7
I'll come back to the marginals, but here are the seats:

Parties

Conservatives - 336
Labour - 230
Lib Dems - 24
Brexit - 0
SNP - 42
Plaid Cymru - 3
DUP - 9
Sinn Fein - 6



---

Im going with a slim tory majority, slightly higher then Cameron achieved in 2015. SNP making gains, but not as many as currently is expected. Lib dems to hold-fast and do pretty well. Brexit party get nothing, but hurt Labour in a few seats.

Corbyn performs better than his polling suggested, as in 2017, and somehow despite loosing parts of his fanbase turn it into a victory..
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Rakas21
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#8
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#8
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
With just under 3 weeks until the election, it's time to put in your predictions for seat tallys. I'm in talks with the CT about the potential of a prize, but in the meantime, predict the seat tallys for each of the following parties, and who will win each of these marginals; whoever has the lowest total error (e.g. if you're 5 out on each then your total error is 40) wins and the marginal seats will act as tiebreakers (based on most correct predictions)

Parties

Conservatives -
Labour -
Lib Dems -
Brexit -
SNP -
Plaid Cymru -
DUP -
Sinn Fein -

Marginals

North East Fife -
Kensington -
Perth and North Perthshire -
Dudley North -
Newcastle Under Lyme -
Southampton Itchen -
Richmond Park -
Crewe and Nantwich -
Canterbury -
Thurrock -
Can we edit these predictions, I update my model every time there is a regional poll and will do until the Sunday before the election when I will place my bets (I put real money where my mouth is).
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Stiff Little Fingers
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#9
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Can we edit these predictions, I update my model every time there is a regional poll and will do until the Sunday before the election when I will place my bets (I put real money where my mouth is).
Yes, I'll be collecting the predictions at midnight going into the 12th (so, the end of the 11th) - you can change up to that point, but I won't accept any edits or entries on polling day itself
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Mr Daily Mail
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#10
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#10
Conservatives - 360
Labour - 211
Lib Dems - 15
Brexit - 0
SNP - 40
Plaid Cymru - 4
DUP - 10
Sinn Fein - 6

Marginals

North East Fife - Lib Dem
Kensington - Conservative
Perth and North Perthshire - SNP
Dudley North - Conservative
Newcastle Under Lyme - Conservative
Southampton Itchen - Conservative
Richmond Park - Lib Dem
Crewe and Nantwich - Conservative
Canterbury - Labour
Thurrock - Conservative
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DraconisAudiat
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#11
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#11
Hung Parliament
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laurawatt
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#12
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#12
Conservatives - 315
Labour - 240
Lib Dems - 35
Brexit - 1
SNP - 40
Plaid Cymru - 3
DUP - 11
Sinn Fein - 5
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Saracen's Fez
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#13
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I've just edited my prediction.

Just thinking now, Anglesey would have been a really interesting marginal to make people predict – it's looking like the only real three-way marginal at the moment.
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Rakas21
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#14
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
I've just edited my prediction.

Just thinking now, Anglesey would have been a really interesting marginal to make people predict – it's looking like the only real three-way marginal at the moment.
The three Lab seats near Edinburgh are 3 ways though not as contested this election.
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Saracen's Fez
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#15
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The three Lab seats near Edinburgh are 3 ways though not as contested this election.
Though I've seen Anglesey predicted for Plaid, Labour and the Tories in the last week, so I'm not sure they match that!
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Rakas21
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#16
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Though I've seen Anglesey predicted for Plaid, Labour and the Tories in the last week, so I'm not sure they match that!
MRP says the Tories are home and dry, latest Welsh poll keeps it Labour but previous ones did go Plaid. Unless there's another Welsh poll hiding around I'd normally be calling a Labour hold were it not for MRP.
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Saracen's Fez
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#17
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(Original post by Rakas21)
MRP says the Tories are home and dry, latest Welsh poll keeps it Labour but previous ones did go Plaid. Unless there's another Welsh poll hiding around I'd normally be calling a Labour hold were it not for MRP.
MRP also gave the Lib Dems 9% though IIRC...and they've not got a candidate.
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Rakas21
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#18
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
MRP also gave the Lib Dems 9% though IIRC...and they've not got a candidate.
Just checked it now and Libs are 0%, it’s the Brx Party on 9%. Plaid and Labour are on 28%, Tories on 35%.
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Rakas21
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#19
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#19

My final call..

Parties

Conservatives - 347
Labour - 202
Lib Dems - 32
Brexit - 0
SNP - 46
Plaid Cymru - 3
DUP - 10
Sinn Fein - 4

Marginals

North East Fife - SNP
Kensington - Tory
Perth and North Perthshire - SNP
Dudley North - Tory
Newcastle Under Lyme - Tory
Southampton Itchen - Labour
Richmond Park - Lib Dem
Crewe and Nantwich - Tory
Canterbury - Labour
Thurrock - Tory

Vote Shares and Regional Seats

UK

Con: 45%
Lab: 34%
Lib: 13%

Scotland

SNP: 44%
Con: 29%
Lab: 16%
Lib: 10%

Scotland seats

SNP: 46
Con: 8
Lab: 1
Lib: 4

Wales

Lab: 40%
Con: 37%
Pld: 10%
Lib: 6%

Wales Seats

Lab: 20
Con: 16
Pld: 3
Lib: 1

Northern Ireland

DUP: 30%
ShF: 25%
Ali: 16%
SDL: 13%
UUP: 11%

Northern Ireland Seats

DUP: 10
ShF: 4
Ali: 1
SDL: 2
UUP: 1
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Connor27
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#20
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#20
Parties

Conservatives - 340
Labour - 230
Lib Dems - 16
Brexit - 0
SNP - 40
Plaid Cymru - 4
DUP - 9
Sinn Fein - 6

Marginals

North East Fife - Lib Dem
Kensington - Tory
Perth and North Perthshire - SNP
Dudley North - Tory
Newcastle Under Lyme - Tory
Southampton Itchen - Tory
Richmond Park - Lib Dem
Crewe and Nantwich - Tory
Canterbury - Labour
Thurrock - Tory
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