30th TSR General Election: Predictions thread Watch

Andrew97
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This is a thread where TSR users can make informal predictions about the results at any time before voting closes.
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The Mogg
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My honest early predictions:
- Something tells me Labour will win over the Lib Dems this time, and we'll probably still be stuck with a Lab-LD coalition.
- Tories will get a couple more seats than last time.
- Libertarians will get about 5-6 seats.
- Catus & Barnet will win seats as independents, Aph will lose the seat that was won only on a technicality.
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Baron of Sealand
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Conservatives taking all 50 seats!
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04MR17
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I predict the Independent Party of 04MR17 will win 12 seats.
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barnetlad
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I predict that there will be independents in the House.
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CatusStarbright
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I'm not very sure what will happen, but I feel like we could have a continuity of the same government.

I feel like the Libers are really going to struggle to get votes, while the Lib Dems do quite well. As for the Tories and Labour, it depends how wider TSR decides to vote, but I know the Tory internal machine will be stronger than that of Labour.
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Glaz
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(Original post by The Mogg)
My honest early predictions:
- Something tells me Labour will win over the Lib Dems this time, and we'll probably still be stuck with a Lab-LD coalition.
- Tories will get a couple more seats than last time.
- Libertarians will get about 5-6 seats.
- Catus & Barnet will win seats as independents, Aph will lose the seat that was won only on a technicality.
Sounds about right.
Rip Aph :console:
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Connor27
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Conservative 50!
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Aph
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Labour: 12
Con: 13
LD: 15
Liber: 7
Ind: 3
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Rakas21
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Labour: 16
Liberal: 14
Conservative: 12
Libertarian: 4
Soggy: 1
Barnetlad: 1
Aph: 1
Catus: 1


In an RL election turnout is likely to be up so i expect all indies to be easily elected since they only need about 2%.

Libertarians are unlikely to do much worse than last time because i doubt they actually did much to bolster their vote last time.
Labour are likely to benefit at the expense of the Liberals and Tories but their weak internal activity means they will probably have a high ineligible rate.

Sadly i expect to see the Liberals fall in line and back a Labour led government albeit if Labour do better than forecast they may opt for a minority with Soggy and Barnetlad.
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04MR17
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I actually support Rakas' seat prediction above ^

Might also offer this out:

Labour: 16
Liberal: 13
Conservative: 13
Libertarian: 4
Barnetlad: 1
Catus: 1
Aph: 1
Soggy: 1


I also think it's far more likely for barnetlad and Catus to win seats than Aph or Soggy. Though I hope they all do of course.
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by 04MR17)
I also think it's far more likely for barnetlad and Catus to win seats than Aph or Soggy. Though I hope they all do of course.
Four indies in the House would be amazing. Rakas21 do you know what the highest number of independents has been at any one time?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
Four indies in the House would be amazing. Rakas21 do you know what the highest number of independents has been at any one time?
Pretty sure it's three although the Wikia is quite well updated for 10th parliament elections onward.
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Pretty sure it's three although the Wikia is quite well updated for 10th parliament elections onward.
I'll take your word for it, because I just saw the number of pages I'd need to trawl through to figure it all out
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quirky editor
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I don't like the indie system so I'd hope none of them are elected. As for predictions Rakas seems to know what he's doing.
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Andrew97
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#16
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Any last minute predictions before I release the exit poll?
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04MR17
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#17
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I predict verification on Tuesday.
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