Where will Labour gain seats? Watch

Arran90
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Labour is polling lacklustre but do you have any ideas which constituencies they will gain? In 2017 there were surprise victories in Canterbury and Kensington.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Arran90)
Labour is polling lacklustre but do you have any ideas which constituencies they will gain? In 2017 there were surprise victories in Canterbury and Kensington.
I have looked at constituencies in my own attempt to forecast and they'll be lucky to gain anything given that the Liberal Democrats are taking too many votes and in almost every Con-Lab battle, Labour looks to be on the losing end.

Honestly, the only two constituencies I have as probable Labour gains are Norwich North and Hastings. They might be able to squeeze a handful more from small Tory majorities where their numbers allow them to flood constituencies but it won't be many.
Last edited by Rakas21; 1 month ago
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Arran90
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Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson) and Chingford and Woodford Green (Iain Duncan-Smith) are numerically within snatching distance.

Southampton Itchen has a Conservative majority of just 31 and Arfon a Plaid majority of 92.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Arran90)
Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson) and Chingford and Woodford Green (Iain Duncan-Smith) are numerically within snatching distance.

Southampton Itchen has a Conservative majority of just 31 and Arfon a Plaid majority of 92.
The problem in Wales is that the swing against them is on par with the national average while Plaid look like holding their vote. In London it’s smaller but still to the Conservatives so they are fighting the tide (Faiza has a better chance been in the media a lot). Only in the South East, South West and Eastern regions is there even a chance they can sit on a Remain bounce but there are barely any seats close enough.
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Drewski
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Maybe remove the word "where"...
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Arran90
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It depends on the demographics as well. Areas that are strongly Remain or have a 'youth' vote are more favourable to Labour than areas that are strongly Leave and have older voters.

It's possible that Labour will take the once true blue Tory stronghold of Chipping Barnet with a majority of 353 but the Conservative will romp home to a victory in Thurrock with a majority of 345 and Calder Valley with a majority of 609.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Arran90)
It depends on the demographics as well. Areas that are strongly Remain or have a 'youth' vote are more favourable to Labour than areas that are strongly Leave and have older voters.

It's possible that Labour will take the once true blue Tory stronghold of Chipping Barnet with a majority of 353 but the Conservative will romp home to a victory in Thurrock with a majority of 345 and Calder Valley with a majority of 609.
The Lib Dem’s are still the beneficiary of the Remain vote dividing it, polling has shown universally that Labour have lower vote share than 2017 in every single regional poll.

Barnet won’t go Labour for obvious reasons, they even lost council seats.
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Arran90
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The Lib Dem’s are still the beneficiary of the Remain vote dividing it, polling has shown universally that Labour have lower vote share than 2017 in every single regional poll.

Barnet won’t go Labour for obvious reasons, they even lost council seats.
There's tactical voting at play. The Lib-Dems did badly (5.4%) in 2017 so many Lib-Dem and Remain voters might choose to vote Labour now that the constituency is knife edge.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Arran90)
There's tactical voting at play. The Lib-Dems did badly (5.4%) in 2017 so many Lib-Dem and Remain voters might choose to vote Labour now that the constituency is knife edge.
That’s possible and it’s why I suspect the three seats (Norwich, Hastings, Southampton) may go Labour’s way but I don’t think there will be many others. Once you start getting more than a 1-2% national swing against somebody the tide just gets too strong.

I would also add that in 2017 Labour kept their leavers happy by committing to a hard ish Brexit, those voters have left them ( Lab came out of 2017 about 70% remain, it went into this election over 85% remain) and so that means your fishing in a different pond of voters and can’t just assume that where they did well in 2017 they can replicate it.
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SHallowvale
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Probably nowhere, unless polls aren't correct.
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Arran90
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I suspect that Labour will stack up big majorities in places like inner London and trendy cities such as Oxford and Manchester, but will fail to win most of the marginals as only a handful have a sizeable youth vote or are strongly Remain.

I also predict that the Conservatives will win about 30 out of the first 40 target seats and there are others further down that are potentially winnable.
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Magnifico
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I have looked at constituencies in my own attempt to forecast and they'll be lucky to gain anything given that the Liberal Democrats are taking too many votes and in almost every Con-Lab battle, Labour looks to be on the losing end.

Honestly, the only two constituencies I have as probable Labour gains are Norwich North and Hastings. They might be able to squeeze a handful more from small Tory majorities where their numbers allow them to flood constituencies but it won't be many.
What about the speculation of significantly higher turnout from certain largely centre-left demographics? According to the BBC, compared to the last election, an additional 70,000 of the under-35s registered to vote in the first three days. That roughly amounts to the entire electorate of one constituency. About half of that number were under 25. That being said as a proportion of registrations under-35s make up less than in 2017.

The BBC also say:

'Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation - who work to tackle poverty in the UK - shows that 1.2 million people on low incomes who didn't vote in the last election are planning to do so this time. Around a 170,000 of them are thought to be swing voters'

I would assume that this is good news for Labour.

I wonder whether mandatory voting would be effective in radically increasing voter turnout at elections, and what result that projected turnout might deliver.
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Sammylou40
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My area is a long held labour seat and was always considered safe.
However our mp was given her warning at the recent local election when decades old labour posts were lost.
Any gains will be lost elsewhere
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barnetlad
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The Lib Dem’s are still the beneficiary of the Remain vote dividing it, polling has shown universally that Labour have lower vote share than 2017 in every single regional poll.

Barnet won’t go Labour for obvious reasons, they even lost council seats.
As I know living in Barnet. I have not seen any Labour canvassers, and only one poster.

(For those unaware, about 15-20% of the constituency consider themselves Jewish, and others like me have Jewish ancestry)
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Magnifico)
What about the speculation of significantly higher turnout from certain largely centre-left demographics? According to the BBC, compared to the last election, an additional 70,000 of the under-35s registered to vote in the first three days. That roughly amounts to the entire electorate of one constituency. About half of that number were under 25. That being said as a proportion of registrations under-35s make up less than in 2017.

The BBC also say:

'Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation - who work to tackle poverty in the UK - shows that 1.2 million people on low incomes who didn't vote in the last election are planning to do so this time. Around a 170,000 of them are thought to be swing voters'

I would assume that this is good news for Labour.

I wonder whether mandatory voting would be effective in radically increasing voter turnout at elections, and what result that projected turnout might deliver.
Unfortunately registration is hard to read. At the last election for example about 1.2 million people were excluded for already being registered.

On the low income point C2DE voters have actually broken heavily for the Tories.
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BlueIndigoViolet
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Haha imagine Uxbridge and South Ruislip unseating the PM :laugh: not too likely but would be really interesting
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Arran90
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(Original post by Magnifico)
What about the speculation of significantly higher turnout from certain largely centre-left demographics? According to the BBC, compared to the last election, an additional 70,000 of the under-35s registered to vote in the first three days. That roughly amounts to the entire electorate of one constituency. About half of that number were under 25. That being said as a proportion of registrations under-35s make up less than in 2017.

The BBC also say:

'Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation - who work to tackle poverty in the UK - shows that 1.2 million people on low incomes who didn't vote in the last election are planning to do so this time. Around a 170,000 of them are thought to be swing voters'

I would assume that this is good news for Labour.

I wonder whether mandatory voting would be effective in radically increasing voter turnout at elections, and what result that projected turnout might deliver.
I suspect that a high proportion of such people live in safeish Labour seats rather than the marginals, so its effect on the make-up of Parliament will be minimal.
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bj27
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Yeah just looking at it and I can't see anything other than Tories taking back a bunch of seats but not enough for an outright majority like in 2015. Lib Dems maybe gaining a few from Labour too.
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Arran90
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(Original post by bj27)
Yeah just looking at it and I can't see anything other than Tories taking back a bunch of seats but not enough for an outright majority like in 2015. Lib Dems maybe gaining a few from Labour too.
The only realistic Lib-Dem gain from Labour is Sheffield Hallam. Leeds North West is a long shot by the swingometer but not very favourable demographically.
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