Does the SNP winning make independence inevitable? Watch

DeesideEwan
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SNP winning 48 seats, does this make independence inevitable?
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Quady
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Nope.

I think you're assuming SNP voters are independence voters.
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londonmyst
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No.
The SNP are very good at rewarding their voters living in Scotland with freebies but many still voted no in the independence referendum.
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Quady
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(Original post by londonmyst)
No.
The SNP are very good at rewarding their voters living in Scotland with freebies but many still voted no in the independence referendum.
Freebies?

The SNP have imposed the highest tax rates in the kingdom!
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Em.-.
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No. Many people didn’t vote, meaning they didn’t want independence enough to vote snp. Also other parties got votes, snp just got the most (sometimes barely) in the majority of constituencies. In total, less than half of eligible voters voted for snp. However another referendum does seem likely to happen in the future since a lot of scots would pick the eu over Britain, but Scotland rejoining the eu without England and Wales seems quite complicated so people may vote against it.
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ozzyoscy
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Here's what happens:

SNP: "We want an independence vote."

Boris: "No."

SNP: "Well let's have a vote in parliament."

Boris: "I'm game for a chortle."

*SNP lose 601 - 48*
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DJKL
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(Original post by ozzyoscy)
Here's what happens:

SNP: "We want an independence vote."

Boris: "No."

SNP: "Well let's have a vote in parliament."

Boris: "I'm game for a chortle."

*SNP lose 601 - 48*
So Sinn Fein are turning up for the vote?
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ozzyoscy
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(Original post by DJKL)
So Sinn Fein are turning up for the vote?
It was promised there would be cheese on a stick.
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fallen_acorns
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Didn't they only get 45% of the vote this time around? Obviously in a FPTP system that leads to a majority, but in a referendum the other 55% who voted for union parties count far greater.

Also the other posters are right that there are plenty of union voters who lend their support to the SNP in general elections, especially remainers this time around because the SNP is the most credible remain party in the UK.
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ryandavis97
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Let ‘em leave. Isn’t like we need ‘em...
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DJKL
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(Original post by ozzyoscy)
It was promised there would be cheese on a stick.
Presumably with Guiness and Whiskey (note the E)
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Quady
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(Original post by ozzyoscy)
Here's what happens:

SNP: "We want an independence vote."

Boris: "No."

SNP: "Well let's have a vote in parliament."

Boris: "I'm game for a chortle."

*SNP lose 601 - 48*
You reckon Caroline would vote against....? Really? I'm pretty confident she'd vote for it.
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Quady
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(Original post by Emiluu)
No. Many people didn’t vote, meaning they didn’t want independence enough to vote snp. Also other parties got votes, snp just got the most (sometimes barely) in the majority of constituencies. In total, less than half of eligible voters voted for snp. However another referendum does seem likely to happen in the future since a lot of scots would pick the eu over Britain, but Scotland rejoining the eu without England and Wales seems quite complicated so people may vote against it.
Just to check, when I voted SNP in 2015 that was a vote for independence? I dont remember that's why I voted for them.

Pretty certain there were a sizable number of people voting Tory who would vote for independence (again). Over a quarter of yes voters voted leave.
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ozzyoscy
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(Original post by Quady)
You reckon Caroline would vote against....? Really? I'm pretty confident she'd vote for it.
Why are you statistically analysing a casual quip?
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by ozzyoscy)
Here's what happens:

SNP: "We want an independence vote."

Boris: "No."

SNP: "Well let's have a vote in parliament."

Boris: "I'm game for a chortle."

*SNP lose 601 - 48*
If the SNP wins ie does not go backwards at, the next Holyrood election, Boris will have to concede Indyref2 otherwise his Government will be eaten up by the Scotland Question.

Ireland consumed British politics for 30 years before the violence of the Easter Rising and broke the Liberal Party. Quebec dominated Canadian politics for 30 years from the late 60s. The Belgian and Spanish states are riven with chaos through separatism.

I suspect the EU wouldn’t help Boris out in the way it assisted Cameron. Scotland would be offered fast track entry with the Euro but without Schengen and that would be the choice for the Scots.
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Smack
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54% of Scots voted for pro-union parties on Thursday. Due to voter distribution and FPTP the SNP are able to win a significant majority of the seats on offer, but I'd still be conscious about launching head-first into another Indy Ref on the back of that result.
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the bear
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they had a once in a generation vote on this a couple of years back iirc.... so the next vote should be in, oh, 23 years from now.
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Quady
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(Original post by the bear)
they had a once in a generation vote on this a couple of years back iirc.... so the next vote should be in, oh, 23 years from now.
Your recollection is in the ballpark but not quite right.

From the Telegraph, 14th Sept 2014:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...-Scotland.html
Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond told the BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show that if the majority of Scots vote No to independence on 18 September, there will be no second referendum on the subject within this "political generation".

"Harold Wilson famously (said) one vote is enough in a referendum but we're not aiming to win by one vote, we're aiming to achieve a substantial majority if we can."

He added: "If you remember that previous constitutional referendum in Scotland - there was one in 1979 and then the next one was 1997. That's what I mean by a political generation.

"In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland."

Asked if he could pledge not to bring back another referendum if the Yes campaign does not win on Thursday, he said: "That's my view. My view is this is a once in a generation, perhaps even a once in a lifetime, opportunity for Scotland."


He was pretty clear it was just his view/opinion. He is gone.

Also it was over five years. So if agreed to now it'd be six years since the previous rather than two.
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