M570 – Motion on selling Cardiff Airport Watch

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Rakas21
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#41
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#41
(Original post by barnetlad)
I have stood on a manifesto that includes more devolution for Wales.
It baffles me how you can look at the damage done in NI and Scotland and wish to see it elsewhere.

Unitary rule is far superior.
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Jammy Duel
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#42
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(Original post by barnetlad)
There is no devolved administration in NI currently.
When are there next Welsh elections, there won't be an Assembly for a while then in which case let's do it then

The reality is you want to push your agenda on NI so will come up with excuses to ignore the fact that they have all those devolved powers, but support an enormous state and therefore it does matter here.
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barnetlad
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#43
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
When are there next Welsh elections, there won't be an Assembly for a while then in which case let's do it then

The reality is you want to push your agenda on NI so will come up with excuses to ignore the fact that they have all those devolved powers, but support an enormous state and therefore it does matter here.
I don't recall ever expressing an opinion on same-sex relationships and the legal status that can be afforded to them in Northern Ireland.
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Jammy Duel
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#44
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(Original post by barnetlad)
I don't recall ever expressing an opinion on same-sex relationships and the legal status that can be afforded to them in Northern Ireland.
And it is academic anyway given this is a part of the GD:

"This House may act as the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales, Northern Ireland Assembly or any English devolved regional assembly in passing legislation on devolved issues relating to those constituent parts of the country."

And Saracen's Fez should be well aware of that clause before he says it is for the devolved assembly, we are the Assembly
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Saracen's Fez
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#45
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
When are there next Welsh elections, there won't be an Assembly for a while then in which case let's do it then
There won't not be a government, which is the issue in NI (there's an Assembly still and it even met a few weeks ago).
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Jammy Duel
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#46
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
There won't not be a government, which is the issue in NI (there's an Assembly still and it even met a few weeks ago).
And it is academic regardless given we are the Assmebly
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Miriam29
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#47
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Aye - it’s an awful airport that needs serious upgrading with money that the Welsh government simply cannot afford.
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Jammy Duel
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#48
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(Original post by Miriam29)
Aye - it’s an awful airport that needs serious upgrading with money that the Welsh government simply cannot afford.
That is false of a few counts. First thing first is that it doesn't cost the Welsh government a penny unless the airport goes under given the Welsh government merely lends money to the airport and given the amount of interest it pays on its debts probably makes a pretty penny out of it; in fact the Welsh government has recently significantly increased how much is allowed to be borrowed by £21.2m. If we use the value of the airport itself as a basis for the amount that needs investing to upgrade you have £30m of freehold property, £9m of plant and machinery, £16m of runways, taxiways etc

Beyond that the cost of this I did a bit of back of the stamp calculation and even if the additional loan made available in the last year were a complete write off it would be cheaper than the teaching of Welsh. Two hours a fortnight means 1 hour a week, take an average class size of 30 and a week of 30 hours we get ~900 pupils per teacher. Welsh is compulsory from 3-13 so that's 13 years or roughly a fifth of life expectancy so if we assume a fairly flat age spread we get ~600,000 people being taught Welsh requiring 667 teachers, we'll round this down to 650 to make the numbers a little nicer. Next I shall assume the salary to be an average of £30,000 which is not unreasonable given the teacher pay scale which gives a salary of £19.5m and that's before NI and pensions, NI being on ~£18,000 of that at 13.8% which is another £1.6m giving a total of £21.1m. Without including pensions we have already got an equivalent cost to the new loan. The Welsh Government could afford it.

Alternatively you could look at it in terms of the Welsh Government's budget of ~18bn and see it as 0.1% of the budget.

EDIT: having examined the newly published 2019 accounts it appears the Welsh Government is making nearly £2m a year on the airport.
Last edited by Jammy Duel; 1 month ago
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Jammy Duel
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#49
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(Original post by SoggyCabbages)
At first read of the motion itself my thoughts were that yes this should be sold off.

But however, reading Jammy's comments has swung me slightly. If the author only read the headline big profit/loss number and neglected the other ways in which airport worthiness is measured, they could be getting the wrong end of the stick.

I shall abstain until further comments are made.

I would also be interested to know the future profit/loss, passenger numbers etc projections as it could be worth keeping it until demand increases, if that is likely.
Good news, the annual report for 2018/19 was published last Friday and we had:

EBITDA up 1000% from £7,000 to £77,000
Passenger numbers up 6.9%
Pre tax loss of £18,256,000
The increased pre-tax loss is due to changes in accounting practices reducing the value of intangible assets meaning there was an exceptional charge of £9,355,000
£1,902,000 of interest payable and expenses, this was £1,828,000 loan interest (primarily to the Welsh government) and £74,000 of other interest payable

Total loans increased from £30.6m to £36.2m, who it is owed to is not specified but it is almost certainly primarily, if not entirely, the Welsh government.
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Jammy Duel
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#50
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The Mogg

Assessing the 2018/19 accounts from a purely financial perspective it is 100% worth the Welsh Government keeping the airport, or at the very least maintaining the current loan which is what is being presented as the problem with it having brought in £1.8m in 2018/19, £1.4m in 2017/18, £900k in 2016/17, £361k in 2015/16. Given another £6m was borrowed in 2018/19 I would expect a figure of maybe £2.2m +/-100k for 2019/20
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Jammy Duel
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#51
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Another thing to consider is the criticism provided in the motion is actually nothing to do with the state owned nature, it instead focuses on the loan. If privatised that loan will still be there, the airport will still owe the Welsh government 36m and it will still have the option to borrow another £16m. Under private ownership the pre-tax losses would likely be similar if we assume the management were otherwise unchanged because the government is not actually running the airport, only owning it
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Saracen's Fez
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#52
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Beyond that the cost of this I did a bit of back of the stamp calculation and even if the additional loan made available in the last year were a complete write off it would be cheaper than the teaching of Welsh.
Confused how you get there, given if you're not teaching Welsh at any particular time you have to employ a teacher to teach something else?
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Jammy Duel
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#53
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#53
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Confused how you get there, given if you're not teaching Welsh at any particular time you have to employ a teacher to teach something else?
Shhhhhh
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Andrew97
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#54
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#54
Division, clear the lobbies!
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