Whatever happened to the "coldest winter in 60 years"? Watch

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#21
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
Some were claiming coldest in 60 years, other in 30 years.
Yet you chose to give evidence that they didn't say that at all.
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Onde
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#22
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Delhi just had its coldest day in more than a century. 9.4C!
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Rakas21
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#23
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
It is early days but in theory this winter should be cold, because October was cold and November was actually very cold. I mean in the south, we had days of around 6-8C, so the same temps we are basically getting now, lots of frost too, and the BBC and Weather Channel had even forecast some snow. December was not as cold and got milder to the end. Accuweather claiming cold spell on the 24th 25th, snow in parts of the south and temps at around 4C with a low of -2c.
Sadly it’s not the case that a cool Autumn always leads to a cool winter. The stratospheric and tropospheric vortex do not usually sync until late November/early December and unfortunately this year we have an especially strong stratospheric vortex (though signs it may weaken late in the month to allow a less hostile pattern in Feb/March). This is essentially why a kind troposphere in Autumn has failed to materialise a cold pattern for winter thus far.
(Original post by Ferrograd)
So by that standard, Summer 2018 should have been much like August 2019, wet, much colder than average
The winter of 2018 was actually average overall so statistically no sign (Dec was average and jan actually quite mild). In 2018 though we had a La Niña in winter which transitioned to an El Niño over the summer.
Last edited by Rakas21; 2 weeks ago
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Ferrograd
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#24
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#24
(Original post by Onde)
Delhi just had its coldest day in more than a century. 9.4C!
Yes, I read that
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Ferrograd
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#25
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#25
(Original post by Rakas21)
Sadly it’s not the case that a cool Autumn always leads to a cool winter. The stratospheric and tropospheric vortex do not usually sync until late November/early December and unfortunately this year we have an especially strong stratospheric vortex (though signs it may weaken late in the month to allow a less hostile pattern in Feb/March). This is essentially why a kind troposphere in Autumn has failed to materialise a cold pattern for winter thus far.

The winter of 2018 was actually average overall so statistically no sign (Dec was average and jan actually quite mild). In 2018 though we had a La Niña in winter which transitioned to an El Niño over the summer.
Are we set for an El Nino this year?


Apparently there was an el nino in 2019, albeit a small one? Could have contributed to record breaking weather last year.
Last edited by Ferrograd; 2 weeks ago
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
Are we set for an El Nino this year?


Apparently there was an el nino in 2019, albeit a small one? Could have contributed to record breaking weather last year.
The El Niño that formed in 2018 officially ended last summer however we’ve not had a La Niña form yet so the atmosphere still has some residual effects.

We’ve recently had a +IOD even though which seems to have flushed out warm at the sub-surface so my bet would be that we see a La Nina event form through the summer and Autumn.

Individual record breaking days can’t be put down to such things, they are somewhat luck of the draw things.
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Ferrograd
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#27
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The El Niño that formed in 2018 officially ended last summer however we’ve not had a La Niña form yet so the atmosphere still has some residual effects.

We’ve recently had a +IOD even though which seems to have flushed out warm at the sub-surface so my bet would be that we see a La Nina event form through the summer and Autumn.

Individual record breaking days can’t be put down to such things, they are somewhat luck of the draw things.
No, but we saw widespread records broken across europe and the world. undoubtedly climate change played a role, perhaps even a large one, but similar warm years like 2016 (which was the hottest year on record) had an el nino

ENSO-Neutral predicted for 2020. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf
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akragas
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#28
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We're only in the 20th day of Winter...
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
No, but we saw widespread records broken across europe and the world. undoubtedly climate change played a role, perhaps even a large one, but similar warm years like 2016 (which was the hottest year on record) had an el nino

ENSO-Neutral predicted for 2020. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf
Yeah, on a global scale the warmth in the oceans has to be released into the atmosphere so it could have contributed. It only makes it more likely than guarantees it though.
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ByEeek
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#30
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(Original post by akragas)
We're only in the 20th day of Winter...
Perhaps. But my roses were still flowering in December and spring 2019 was a good month earlier than expected. You can argue stats, records and trends all you like but my "looking out of the window" tells me that winters are milder and growing seasons longer than 20 years ago. The first cut of silage happened in early May last year and my hay fever kicked in at the end of May compated to mid June. Things are all over the place.
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Jeff Curry
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#31
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I thought they said there would be a 2nd Beast from the East
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