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January 2020 could break 1916 CET record
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Ferrograd
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#1
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/tw...r+remains+AWOL
A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9096601.html.
Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.
A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9096601.html.
Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.
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Miss Maddie
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#2
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#2
(Original post by Ferrograd)
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnewClimates&id=5149&title=Winter+remains+AWOL
A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9096601.html.
Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnewClimates&id=5149&title=Winter+remains+AWOL
A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9096601.html.
Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.
I know colder winters = climate change
and warmed winters = climate change
It's all climate change
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Ferrograd
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#3
(Original post by Miss Maddie)
Climate change for you
I know colder winters = climate change
and warmed winters = climate change
It's all climate change
Climate change for you
I know colder winters = climate change
and warmed winters = climate change
It's all climate change
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Miss Maddie
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#4
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#4
(Original post by Ferrograd)
Colder winters can still happen, hence why the term climate change is used as opposed to global warming.
Colder winters can still happen, hence why the term climate change is used as opposed to global warming.
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Ferrograd
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#5
(Original post by Miss Maddie)
Only if you believe climate change is causing it
Only if you believe climate change is causing it
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Miss Maddie
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#6
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#6
(Original post by Ferrograd)
So you don't accept the climate is changing?
So you don't accept the climate is changing?
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no
I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature
Last edited by Miss Maddie; 2 years ago
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Ferrograd
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#7
(Original post by Miss Maddie)
Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no
I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature
Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no
I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature
I don't know of anyone claiming that volcanoes are caused by climate change, if anything, they actually cool the planet.
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Rakas21
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#8
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#8
(Original post by Ferrograd)
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/tw...r+remains+AWOL
A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9096601.html.
Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/tw...r+remains+AWOL
A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9096601.html.
Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.
With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.
On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).
It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/st...422209/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_W...pg&name=medium
Last edited by Rakas21; 2 years ago
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Ferrograd
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#9
(Original post by Rakas21)
Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.
With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.
On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).
It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/st...422209/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_W...pg&name=medium
Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.
With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.
On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).
It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/st...422209/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_W...pg&name=medium
I've noticed though that many places in the Arctic like Greenland and many parts of northern Canada are very, very cold, quite a bit colder than average.
It is supposed to get much colder this weekend in the UK, is february likely to continue the mild trend or be colder? TWO is saying March will potentailly be very cold (or colder than average) due to weakened polar vortex
Is it true about it being 3.8C+ above average? Seems very high.
Last edited by Ferrograd; 2 years ago
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Rakas21
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#10
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#10
(Original post by Ferrograd)
Yeah I've heard how Russia has been significantly warmer than normal, though obviously it is still freezing compared to the rest of europe.
I've noticed though that many places in the Arctic like Greenland and many parts of northern Canada are very, very cold, quite a bit colder than average.
It is supposed to get much colder this weekend in the UK, is february likely to continue the mild trend or be colder? TWO is saying March will potentailly be very cold (or colder than average) due to weakened polar vortex
Is it true about it being 3.8C+ above average? Seems very high.
Yeah I've heard how Russia has been significantly warmer than normal, though obviously it is still freezing compared to the rest of europe.
I've noticed though that many places in the Arctic like Greenland and many parts of northern Canada are very, very cold, quite a bit colder than average.
It is supposed to get much colder this weekend in the UK, is february likely to continue the mild trend or be colder? TWO is saying March will potentailly be very cold (or colder than average) due to weakened polar vortex
Is it true about it being 3.8C+ above average? Seems very high.
Current signs are that February should be closer to average and for March it is difficult to say (GLOSEA5 suggests Spring will be very warm in Europe) however it is not abnormal for mild winters to be followed by cooler springs in the UK.
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Ferrograd
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#11
(Original post by Rakas21)
Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.
With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.
On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).
It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/st...422209/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_W...pg&name=medium
Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.
With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.
On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).
It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/st...422209/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_W...pg&name=medium
That's predicting CET for month of 7.95
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Rakas21
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#12
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#12
(Original post by Ferrograd)
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/cet.asp#
That's predicting CET for month of 7.95
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/cet.asp#
That's predicting CET for month of 7.95
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QE2
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#13
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#13
(Original post by Miss Maddie)
Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no
I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature
Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no
I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature
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Ferrograd
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#14
(Original post by Rakas21)
Yes however that’s because it’s just taking the model forecast. Models are notorious for underestimating minima in winter and underestimating maxima in summer. Those who analyse it and perform an adjustment seem to be estimating a probable finish around 6-6.5C.
Yes however that’s because it’s just taking the model forecast. Models are notorious for underestimating minima in winter and underestimating maxima in summer. Those who analyse it and perform an adjustment seem to be estimating a probable finish around 6-6.5C.
Last edited by Ferrograd; 2 years ago
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Ferrograd
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#15
(Original post by QE2)
That is an argument only used by climate change deniers. No informed person claims that everything is down to climate change.
That is an argument only used by climate change deniers. No informed person claims that everything is down to climate change.
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Miss Maddie
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#16
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#16
(Original post by QE2)
That is an argument only used by climate change deniers. No informed person claims that everything is down to climate change.
That is an argument only used by climate change deniers. No informed person claims that everything is down to climate change.
Even the most ardent climate sceptics only go as far as denying anthropogenic change
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