R51 – Ministerial Report from the SoS for Health and Social Care - Coronavirus Watch

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Baron of Sealand
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#61
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#61
(Original post by 04MR17)
Yes. This has nothing to do with how many votes they have though. I suggest you go back to defending the government's policy.
I support good policies no matter where they are from. I don't oppose for the sake of opposing, let alone a policy that I pushed to see happen.

I'm saddened by your playful attitude towards what is clearly a very serious issue.
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Bailey14
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#62
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#62
(Original post by Baron of Sealand)
I can now confirm it's legit! North Korea has closed its borders from all foreign tourists (most of whom would be Chinese and I believe all going from China). Reuters confirmed it with another tour operator too.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZK1PK
This is interesting to see.

The situations severity and prevalence is quite plainly getting worse, especially with the disease having reached the United States.

This is more the reason why we should be acting immediately - and I am pleased the Leader of the Opposition is not forcing a division on this report.
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04MR17
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#63
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#63
(Original post by Baron of Sealand)
I support good policies no matter where they are from. I don't oppose for the sake of opposing, let alone a policy that I pushed to see happen.

I'm saddened by your playful attitude towards what is clearly a very serious issue.
If I took everything in MHoC seriously I'd be bald and on heavy medication. It's sad that you seem to think I've presented any kind of attitude to the issue in the OP when I actually haven't.
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Bailey14
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#64
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#64
(Original post by 04MR17)
Do it, do it, do it. It would be so fun. :dance:
As much as I enjoy seeing divisions in the house, I believe this is a time for action. I will not be forcing a division on my ministerial report and believe a division would not be in the best interests of anyone.
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Baron of Sealand
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#65
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#65
(Original post by Bailey14)
This is interesting to see.

The situations severity and prevalence is quite plainly getting worse, especially with the disease having reached the United States.

This is more the reason why we should be acting immediately - and I am pleased the Leader of the Opposition is not forcing a division on this report.
Indeed. I can only hope it will blow over quickly. The Lunar New Year period will be the biggest test.

Unfortunately, in the last hour, 2 new confirmed cases have been announced outside Wuhan, taking the total up to 10 provinces in China. It's now quite difficult to keep track of the development, but it seemed there were 10 new confirmed cases in China in the last 24 hours. Hong Kong also adds 10 new suspected cases to its tally of 118 suspected cases.

The University of Hong Kong also published their independent report echoing the one from Imperial College London, estimating on average 1680 cases only in Wuhan (with the most likely number being 1300), the lead researcher also stated that he believed the virus had already entered the third phrase of transmission, ie at home and in hospitals.

A Taiwanese medical professor even estimated 3000 cases.
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Bailey14
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#66
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#66
(Original post by Baron of Sealand)
Indeed. I can only hope it will blow over quickly. The Lunar New Year period will be the biggest test.

Unfortunately, in the last hour, 2 new confirmed cases have been announced outside Wuhan, taking the total up to 10 provinces in China. It's now quite difficult to keep track of the development, but it seemed there were 10 new confirmed cases in China in the last 24 hours. Hong Kong also adds 10 new suspected cases to its tally of 118 suspected cases.

The University of Hong Kong also published their independent report echoing the one from Imperial College London, estimating on average 1680 cases only in Wuhan (with the most likely number being 1300), the lead researcher also stated that he believed the virus had already entered the third phrase of transmission, ie at home and in hospitals.

A Taiwanese medical professor even estimated 3000 cases.
I’ll carry on monitoring the situation.
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Baron of Sealand
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#67
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#67
After just another 2 hours, there are more than a hundred new confirmed cases in China, an increase of 149 (out of 440) from 24 hours prior. 3 more also died. China has stated that virus mutation is likely and people should not travel to Wuhan. Wuhan Zoo has closed to avoid further transmissions.

The virus also crossed another hard border into Macao, the seventh territory to have at least one confirmed case.

In brighter news, the British tourist in Thailand suspected to have been infected is now confirmed to have instead a very serious strand of flu A, and after 5 hours of surgery, is recovering with his parents on his bedside.
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LiberOfLondon
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#68
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#68
(Original post by Baron of Sealand)
Isn't he your Deputy Leader instead of leader?

He usually faces facts he doesn't like by either ignoring them or in this case, shockingly go pick up something completely irrelevant and outdated. I expect he will ignore my showing him that his claim that no medics have been infected is already outdated. I suspect he's giving me so many notifications right now rather than waiting for the WHO to have their meeting in the next hours first was because he feared he couldn't even hold on to that after the meeting.
He is the Deputy Leader - I was referring to him as the Glorious Leader in a tounge in cheek way.
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LiberOfLondon
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#69
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#69
(Original post by Baron of Sealand)
a British tourist in Thailand suspected to have been infected is now confirmed to have instead a very serious strand of flu A, and after 5 hours of surgery, is recovering with his parents on his bedside.
I get what you mean but flu on holiday is not fun.
I lost my appetite, woke up in a cold sweat and threw up Aix-en-Provence town centre.
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Jammy Duel
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#70
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#70
(Original post by 04MR17)
Yes. This has nothing to do with how many votes they have though. I suggest you go back to defending the government's policy.
I think he's scared that people will see that his policy is a massive overreaction. It appears that PHE agrees with me that we should follow WHO guidelines, that screening on arrival grants minimal benefit and consequently outbound screening and an information campaign are adequate measures. These are two bodies that are infinitely better informed than either the TSR government or LotO, who seems to be oblivious to the idea that as samples are tested in labs the number of confirmed cases increases and as time progresses these tests become faster.

The question to both Minister and LotO remains this: why is the WHO and PHE wrong? Why are such measures not applied to all locations with diseases with a 2% or greater fatality rate?
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Baron of Sealand)
I support good policies no matter where they are from. I don't oppose for the sake of opposing, let alone a policy that I pushed to see happen.

I'm saddened by your playful attitude towards what is clearly a very serious issue.
You also support policies that those infinitely more informed than you believe excessive, as demonstrated by PHE appearing to agree with myself and WHO that a full screening procedure on arrival is excessive. Like me PHE agrees with WHO that screening on departure along with making sure travellers are well informed is sufficient, and that flights should only be screened should there be evidence driven concern of infection.
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Jammy Duel
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#72
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(Original post by LiberOfLondon)
This is a case of the facts changing, and me changing my opinions.

When the virus had only hit Wuhan, screening does seem like an overreaction. Now, with the virus in America, Japan and South Korea, screening ought to be essential.
Would that our glorious leader in the Libertarian Party would do the same.
It's simple statistics.
We have an estimated 4000 infected individuals in a city of 11m, approximately one per 3000, the airport serves ~25m passengers p/a, if we assume equal volumes in each direction equally spread throughout the year that's ~33500 people leaving every day, with a rate of 1/3000 infected if all in the city are equally likely to be infected you have on average 11 infected individuals a day leaving. IF we assume an average infection period of 30 days and a 5 day incubation period then you will have two people leaving the city each day through the airport during the incubation period. Of course it appears the infections have broadly come in two waves, an initial wave that first presented around new year and a second wave that has been presenting over the last few days, potentially indicative of a longer incubation period (but I'm no expert so I'll leave it to WHO and affiliates to refine incubation periods) so likely a larger number leaving the city before detection/screening.

With the assumptions above just 10% being international passengers would lead to multiple cases presenting outside China as these people pass from incubation to full blown infection, the assumptions used by the LSE model when giving their 1700 infected estimate was a total of 10 days between infection and presenting with severe symptoms. That is a lot of people leaving the area, cases presenting outside China are to be expected as a consequence, simple statistics.

Saying that, the argument based on LSE figure is questionably valid given the estiamtes for infections in Wuhan was based on the cases presenting overseas and consequently how many cases would be required to expect the observed number of exported cases, based on an argument similar to mine (x% infected with y% of people in the city travelling internationally, therefore z cases would be expected outside China)
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04MR17
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#73
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#73
FB_IMG_1579705189740-compressed.jpg.jpeg
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Bailey14
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#74
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#74
The situation has evidently got worse.C8A439F3-78C0-4ECE-9D6B-B86119444600.jpeg
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Jammy Duel
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#75
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#75
(Original post by Bailey14)
The situation has evidently got worse.C8A439F3-78C0-4ECE-9D6B-B86119444600.jpeg
And yet temperature screening on exit is deemed sufficient, in agreement with the WHO it has been deemed screening on arrival is not necessary

it is worth noting that with Ebola this advice was issued no the before comprehensive screening on arrival
Last edited by Jammy Duel; 4 weeks ago
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Jammy Duel
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#76
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#76
and the case for such action is so strong that after a whole day of discussion WHO is unwilling to escalate, requiring another day. However the following has been stated

"There is evidence of person-to-person transmission among close contacts such as in families or in health care settings. This is not unexpected with a respiratory disease. We have not seen any evidence of onward transmission such as 3rd, 4th generation transmission"

To me this suggests that now the disease is known and precautions are hopefully being taken by individuals the outbreak should be relatively readily controllable
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Baron of Sealand
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#77
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#77
(Original post by LiberOfLondon)
I get what you mean but flu on holiday is not fun.
I lost my appetite, woke up in a cold sweat and threw up Aix-en-Provence town centre.
It is indeed very bad. I also didn't realize influenza could lead to a surgery.
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Baron of Sealand
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#78
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
I think he's scared that people will see that his policy is a massive overreaction. It appears that PHE agrees with me that we should follow WHO guidelines, that screening on arrival grants minimal benefit and consequently outbound screening and an information campaign are adequate measures. These are two bodies that are infinitely better informed than either the TSR government or LotO, who seems to be oblivious to the idea that as samples are tested in labs the number of confirmed cases increases and as time progresses these tests become faster.

The question to both Minister and LotO remains this: why is the WHO and PHE wrong? Why are such measures not applied to all locations with diseases with a 2% or greater fatality rate?
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
You also support policies that those infinitely more informed than you believe excessive, as demonstrated by PHE appearing to agree with myself and WHO that a full screening procedure on arrival is excessive. Like me PHE agrees with WHO that screening on departure along with making sure travellers are well informed is sufficient, and that flights should only be screened should there be evidence driven concern of infection.
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
It's simple statistics.
We have an estimated 4000 infected individuals in a city of 11m, approximately one per 3000, the airport serves ~25m passengers p/a, if we assume equal volumes in each direction equally spread throughout the year that's ~33500 people leaving every day, with a rate of 1/3000 infected if all in the city are equally likely to be infected you have on average 11 infected individuals a day leaving. IF we assume an average infection period of 30 days and a 5 day incubation period then you will have two people leaving the city each day through the airport during the incubation period. Of course it appears the infections have broadly come in two waves, an initial wave that first presented around new year and a second wave that has been presenting over the last few days, potentially indicative of a longer incubation period (but I'm no expert so I'll leave it to WHO and affiliates to refine incubation periods) so likely a larger number leaving the city before detection/screening.

With the assumptions above just 10% being international passengers would lead to multiple cases presenting outside China as these people pass from incubation to full blown infection, the assumptions used by the LSE model when giving their 1700 infected estimate was a total of 10 days between infection and presenting with severe symptoms. That is a lot of people leaving the area, cases presenting outside China are to be expected as a consequence, simple statistics.

Saying that, the argument based on LSE figure is questionably valid given the estiamtes for infections in Wuhan was based on the cases presenting overseas and consequently how many cases would be required to expect the observed number of exported cases, based on an argument similar to mine (x% infected with y% of people in the city travelling internationally, therefore z cases would be expected outside China)
Since we last talked:

- 220 more confirmed cases
- the virus crossed another hard border into Hong Kong (and 2 cases)
- cases in Thailand tripled
- UK begins screening
- Europe got its first suspected case (in Russia)
- deaths gone from 9 to 17
- Wuhan now in complete lockdown. Nobody is allowed to leave the city
- "Experts believe it is quite possible the disease, which causes coughing, fever and breathing problems, will arrive in the UK. It can take at least five days for symptoms to show. If flights resume, the airport checks may not pick it up, but will serve to alert people to the need to get medical attention if they fall sick."
- "Prof Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London, who carry out disease modelling for the WHO, said they had increased their estimate from 1,700 cases at the end of last week to 4,000. However, they say there is considerable uncertainty and the true number could be between 1,000 and 9,700." [ibid]
- "Experts say the spread of the coronavirus fulfils the criteria for the WHO to declare it of international concern. “Personally, I think this is a big event,” said Horby. “Is it extraordinary? Yes, it pretty much is. We haven’t seen this large-scale spread since Sars.”" [ibid]
- While we're talking about the PHE, who by the way does not agree with your incorrect opinion: "From today, 22 January 2020, enhanced monitoring will be in place from all direct flights from Wuhan to the UK. The enhanced monitoring package includes a number of measures that will help to provide advice to travellers if they feel unwell."

The WHO failing to update after one day of meeting does not in any way means they "agree" with you. It simply means they need more time to analyze the data they have obtained.

None of these is my opinion. It's the opinion of medical professionals, it's the opinion of numerous governments in the world, including the one the UK has. Both Imperial College London (not the LSE, btw) and Hong Kong University have produced reports. Yet, you, who are not a medic, not a statistician is here acting like you know better than they are. Oh wait, I studied a statistics course at Oxford too, does it make my opinion very valid now?

The situation has gotten so severe that a metropolis of 11 million people is literally getting shut off, during the most culturally important festival of the year. But yes, hold on to your outdated WHO guidelines issued in better times when we weren't getting hundreds of new cases and a new jurisdiction and a handful of deaths every single day.
Last edited by Baron of Sealand; 4 weeks ago
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Baron of Sealand
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#79
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#79
(Original post by Bailey14)
The situation has evidently got worse.C8A439F3-78C0-4ECE-9D6B-B86119444600.jpeg
China has just confirmed another 220 new cases, as death toll doubled to 17. The virus might have already reached Europe and The Guardian quoted experts saying it's likely that the virus will unfortunately reach Britain.

But hey, even though a certain person cannot even visit Wuhan because the city is now shut down, and even though experts have endorsed the screening, which many countries have adopted now, since the WHO needs another day to analyze their data on the ground, this is all just a big overreaction. I'm quite confident when the WHO does eventually update its guidelines, just like the UK government has, he will just look for something else to defend his indefensible position.

I think it's also quite a god complex someone has thinking I would be worried about this MR failing because of his one vote.
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Bailey14
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#80
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I am happy I took action when I did.

Public Health England are now initiating measures. I hope members realise that the actions of myself as this government were not an overreaction.3E494094-6A72-43F8-B436-8C57DB9B35A7.jpeg
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