Can Labour win in 2024? Watch

Burton Bridge
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#21
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#21
(Original post by BlueIndigoViolet)
Too early to tell, depends on the path Labour wish to take, Corbyn 2.0 or to take back their historic seats and enacts policies for real change, but the polls for Starmer seem to be the final nail in the coffin for a few more general elections to come...
Same questions to you;

Why is RLB continuity Corbyn, why do you think this?

What exactly do you know about about RLB and how do you know it?
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Rakas21
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#22
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#22
Does anybody else find the deflection from Labour candidates saying they should have never backed the election amusing amusing. It’s almost like they don’t want to acknowledge that the remain alliance had fallen apart and that the Libs and SNP had already decided to go for one.
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DSilva
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#23
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#23
(Original post by Rakas21)
One thing to note which some may not have factored is that only 12 Tory seats are at real risk from the Lib Dem’s in 2024 but there are 38 seats where the Brexit Party vote exceeds the Labour majority to the Tories.
I don't think it always works like that. As the last three elections have shown you often get wild swings in places you don't expect.
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Rakas21
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#24
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#24
(Original post by DSilva)
I don't think it always works like that. As the last three elections have shown you often get wild swings in places you don't expect.
Swing is never universal but it is close enough allowing for a margin of error. Plug the 2017 or 2019 numbers into the 2015 and 2017 results and you still get close enough to the actual result.

The bulk point of course is that if the Tories get 50-75% of those Brx votes then they are starting from net gains even with Lib losses. If Labour can't get direct transfer from the SNP or Tories on a sufficient scale then they won't get close to even forming coalition, let alone actually winning.
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Wōden
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#25
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#25
(Original post by juugsailorshawty)
maybe if coronavirus goes into full effect in the uk and kills off all the old people
Conservative supporters (of all ages) tend to live in more sparsely populated semi-rural and rural areas whereas Labour's support is now overwhelmingly centered in densely populated urban areas like Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and of course London......

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/29/london-risk-coronavirus-city-europe-12143557/

...Oh dear.
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londonmyst
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#26
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#26
(Original post by Rakas21)
Does anybody else find the deflection from Labour candidates saying they should have never backed the election amusing amusing. It’s almost like they don’t want to acknowledge that the remain alliance had fallen apart and that the Libs and SNP had already decided to go for one.
Very entertaining. :hahaha:
The snide 'I told you so' x20 from Tony Blair and Emily Thornberry are equally amusing.
Last edited by londonmyst; 3 weeks ago
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Just my opinion
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#27
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#27
No.
I think there is going to be wave of patriotism. Labour realise this that's why they came up with the rather pathetic "we are progressive Patriots"
They have been giving the impression that they hate patriotism for so long that nobody will buy it.
I think 2014 is the Tories to lose not Labours to win.
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Burton Bridge
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#28
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#28
(Original post by Rakas21)
Does anybody else find the deflection from Labour candidates saying they should have never backed the election amusing amusing. It’s almost like they don’t want to acknowledge that the remain alliance had fallen apart and that the Libs and SNP had already decided to go for one.
Yes, it's the anger stage of denial
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Rakas21
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#29
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#29
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Yes, it's the anger stage of denial
And yet you chose to rejoin this pitiful variant of the party.
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Burton Bridge
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#30
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#30
(Original post by Rakas21)
And yet you chose to rejoin this pitiful variant of the party.
I do, I'm a socialist. Labour need to come back stronger than ever, the country needs us. We are going to get (bar brexit) more of the same decay under the tories, it's a continuation of the Cameron/Clegg style government under Johnson and co.
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DSilva
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#31
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#31
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
I do, I'm a socialist. Labour need to come back stronger than ever, the country needs us. We are going to get (bar brexit) more of the same decay under the tories, it's a continuation of the Cameron/Clegg style government under Johnson and co.
I think Starmer will prove a solid albeit not spectacular choice. He's certainly competent and looks the part. He's very good on the detail which is probably Johnson's biggest weakness.
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DSilva
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#32
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#32
Also why is this leadership election so long? It already feels like it's gone on for ages and there's two months left.
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Burton Bridge
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#33
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#33
(Original post by DSilva)
I think Starmer will prove a solid albeit not spectacular choice. He's certainly competent and looks the part. He's very good on the detail which is probably Johnson's biggest weakness.
Yea, but hes very close to the Corbyn government. Hes very elite london central and has been very patronising to the north on brexit....

I dont think hes the man, but I will support him if he wins.
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Rakas21
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#34
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#34
(Original post by DSilva)
Also why is this leadership election so long? It already feels like it's gone on for ages and there's two months left.
The contest being long is to allow analysis of why they lost and also allow a perceived wider debate (in reality the left control the nec and have already cut it to three). They had to run them concurrently though because they want a leader in place for the locals.
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adam271
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#35
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#35
I think Keir Starmer could win but it depends how many concessions he has to make to the far left.
I think Lisa Nandy's position on free movement of people would cost her the election. It's a pretty stupid position because this is the one thing people really cared about and switched from labour to tories over.
I think Emily Thornberry has zero chance of winning and she keeps trying to take the high ground about how she 'beat' boris. which is nonsense. Or she foresaw the poor election result but was powerless to stop it. Yet she was a cabinet minister. Also her policy on EU is a joke she put all her eggs on another EU referendum and lost.
As for Rebecca Long-Bailey: I hate to say it as the media keep spewing it out but she seems to just want to continue Corbyn's policies of radical socialist changes. I do not see this working. They just need one big policy and to push the hell out of it. e.g. nationalise the railways or free broadband for all.
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Possibly this
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#36
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#36
I can see a Labour win potentially happening, no landslide realistically on the cards but a win 5 years from now is very possible. I personally believe the ideological position of the next leader will be less important than their actual ability to lead and I think we have to be careful of not projecting the big issues in early 2020 onto an election currently set for the end of 2024.

What makes me think that a Labour win is possible is actually far more to do with the economy. Many shifts of power in recent times came in the wake of poor economic performance. Ted Heath was defeated after the implementation of the 3-day week. The Labour Party under Callaghan then suffered the winter of discontent, making way for Margaret Thatcher. Then recession in the early 90's was partially responsible for the erosion of the Major government. And most recently, Labour popularity fell through the floor in the wake of the 2008 financial crash.

With reports last year speaking of a weakening economy in the UK and many other rich countries, i would say we will have another recession under Johnson in these next 5 years and that will really be a test of his metal.
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