Will Brexit be good for Britain? Watch

MonkeyChunks
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#21
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#21
(Original post by Doones)
If devolution is so important (and it is) why did the UK Government ignore the votes of Scotland, Wales and NI national parliaments to remain in the EU?

So the Gov wants the UK to "take back control", just not too much...
Wales voted to leave, I would happily see Ireland unify, and regarding Scotland, I say give it a few years and let them have a referendum on leaving the UK. The referendum to include Scots who live in England too. In my local pub there will often be a majority Scottish contingent, would they vote leave or remain (the UK)?

Let the Brexit dust settle, let the fear mongering be exposed for what it is, and see what they think then, because the impact of Scotland leaving the UK is far far far move profound than the UK leaving the EU. There is deep functional union between the two countries, a common currency, and huge mixing of its peoples. The loss of English money would impact them badly, and with the EUs green policy north sea oil might not be worth so much in a few years. What else do they have, whisky? There is little industry, little wealth there.
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Doones
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#22
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#22
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
Wales voted to leave, I would happily see Ireland unify, and regarding Scotland, I say give it a few years and let them have a referendum on leaving the UK. The referendum to include Scots who live in England too. In my local pub there will often be a majority Scottish contingent, would they vote leave or remain (the UK)?
No. The Welsh Assembly voted against.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-wa...itics-51181641
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Rakas21
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#23
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#23
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
More likely for me is that no, it won't be good for Britain in the long-run.

I do think its possible to make a success of things in the next 10-20 years, but the world is becoming more and more connected, and looking at the way that power is balancing out in the world, a single connected Europe seems likes a necessity to me. My suspicion is that even if we manage to make a good go of it for the next few years, slowly we will be pulled back towards the EU and end up still bassically in it, even if not in name. Just look at the trend over the past 100 years.. they don't favour nations going out on their own, and individualism.. they point firmly towards closer and closer cooperation, the breakdown of the idea of single nations and borders, globalization and international business, international languages etc. We are becoming one, slowly (and painfully in some circumstnaces), and brexit is against the trend.

The EU will shift around and re-arrange itself quite a bit over the next 20-30 years, but we will find ourselves basically inside it, whether we like it or not eventually.
It’s possible that we could in the long run end up in a Norway/Swiss arrangement given that I accept there has been a trend towards customs unions but I don’t think that the UK would ever tolerate what will eventually become a federal Europe (bar a handful of states which might not go the distance).

I’m still extremely sceptical that we would do so however for the simple reason that growth between the UK and EU won’t differ all that much. Even the most pessimistic forecasts suggest that growth will only be about half a percent lower each year (1.8% average rather than 2.2% out to 2030) and in most years the UK economy actually grows faster than the other economies of Western Europe.

The second point is the main difference between our post war clamour to join and today, Europe was booming while today there’s broadly little difference. The pull factor is not their anymore.
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MonkeyChunks
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#24
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#24
(Original post by Doones)
No. The Welsh Assembly voted against.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-wa...itics-51181641
The Welsh people voted to leave.
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Rakas21
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#25
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#25
Funnily enough Youguv just released a Welsh poll this morning which suggests that Welsh Labour May regret their decision next year.

Constituency
Conservatives: 35% (+15)
Labour: 33% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-8)


Regional
Conservatives: 32% (+14)
Labour: 32% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-/+)
Brexit Party: 3% (-10)

Figures vs the 2016 election.

Surge to the Tories. Used Kippers as the Brexit base.
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Doones
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#26
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#26
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
The Welsh people voted to leave.
The London people voted to remain. As did Liverpool and Manchester.

The point is your devolution isn't being respected now.
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MonkeyChunks
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#27
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#27
(Original post by Rakas21)
Funnily enough Youguv just released a Welsh poll this morning which suggests that Welsh Labour May regret their decision next year.

Constituency
Conservatives: 35% (+15)
Labour: 33% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-8)


Regional
Conservatives: 32% (+14)
Labour: 32% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-/+)
Brexit Party: 3% (-10)

Figures vs the 2016 election.

Surge to the Tories. Used Kippers as the Brexit base.
Labour are almost finished as a party, they only represent the urban middle class.
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MonkeyChunks
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#28
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#28
(Original post by Doones)
The London people voted to remain. As did Liverpool and Manchester.

The point is your devolution isn't being respected now.
You want the entire country to split into a thousand towns and villages?
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Doones
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#29
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#29
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
You want the entire country to split into a thousand towns and villages?
No, I want the wishes of devolved parliaments to be respected Remember that democracy thing?
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Rakas21
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#30
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#30
(Original post by Doones)
No, I want the wishes of devolved parliaments to be respected Remember that democracy thing?
Devolved assemblies have no bearing over foreign policy as highlighted by the Supreme Court. Really they shouldn't even be voting on it at that level, only the things that effect their currently devolved competencies.
Last edited by Rakas21; 3 weeks ago
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MonkeyChunks
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#31
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#31
(Original post by Doones)
No, I want the wishes of devolved parliaments to be respected Remember that democracy thing?
Devolution isnt disintegration, glad you agee to that, but the welsh people voted to leave.

But also, dont forget, Westminster governs the UK, St Andrews house Scotland. While there is a UK, it acts as one globally.
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Greywolftwo
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#32
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#32
Nothing will change in the next year or so
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MonkeyChunks
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#33
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#33
(Original post by Greywolftwo)
Nothing will change in the next year or so
I say give it a few years, let Scotland have another referendum.

Let Ireland unify, Wales wants to stay with England. Just my two cents...
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imlikeahermit
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#34
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#34
Of course it won't be. The uneducated masses have been sold down the river by a group of politicians who will stand to make money off it in the short term.

GDP will drop, cost of living will rise, median salary will drop, unemployment will rise. The ironic thing is that I expect the people who will revolt against this first will be the same idiots that voted for this shambles. Every single economic forecast shows that it will be devastating to the UK. Yet, the leavers never seem to believe it? And when factories close, or services leave, or big global companies leave, it's never Brexits fault? Apparently...

We are not big, we are not clever and we have really **** the bed on this one.
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Rakas21
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#35
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#35
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Of course it won't be. The uneducated masses have been sold down the river by a group of politicians who will stand to make money off it in the short term.

GDP will drop, cost of living will rise, median salary will drop, unemployment will rise. The ironic thing is that I expect the people who will revolt against this first will be the same idiots that voted for this shambles. Every single economic forecast shows that it will be devastating to the UK. Yet, the leavers never seem to believe it? And when factories close, or services leave, or big global companies leave, it's never Brexits fault? Apparently...

We are not big, we are not clever and we have really **** the bed on this one.
Assuming we don't move to a no deal your misreading the analysis somewhat.

On the GDP point the forecast is not for a 6% GDP drop, but a 6% reduction in growth to 2030. This essentially means that average growth is forecast to be closer to 1.5% than 2% but it's still growth.

The same is true for wages and unemployment. Short of a no deal there will not be a sudden en mass movement to the continent, instead it may simply mean less future investment so slower wage rises and hiring, but still wage rises and hiring.

There is no credible scenario of us signing a trade deal and entering a recession next year as a result. Even the IMF acknowledges that uncertainty has cost more than likely departing in an orderly manner will.
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Ferrograd
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#36
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#36
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
What a ridiculous statement. The UK values independence, can make its own rules, and run its own ship perfectly well.
It does, but it could sell out to the USA in an act of desperation if they are the only ones who will do a trade deal with us. We will go from an EU puppet (not even that tbh because we had a lot of rights) to a USA puppet. The situation is like the ones the surrendering Germans faced at the end of WW2. There was a saying. The optimistic German officers learnt English, in the hope they would be captured by the allies. The pessimistic ones learnt Russia, knowing they would be captured by the Soviets and executed. We face a similar situation - we either become US puppet or an EU one. And frankly, I'd rather join the latter, knowing they have better environmental, health, trade standards etc
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MonkeyChunks
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#37
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#37
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Every single economic forecast shows that it will be devastating to the UK.
That is of course complete *******s. The IMF’s assessment of the UK prospects over next two year is relatively upbeat. It predicts that growth will “stabilise” at 1.4% in 2020 and 1% in 2021
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imlikeahermit
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#38
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#38
(Original post by Rakas21)
Assuming we don't move to a no deal your misreading the analysis somewhat.

On the GDP point the forecast is not for a 6% GDP drop, but a 6% reduction in growth to 2030. This essentially means that average growth is forecast to be closer to 1.5% than 2% but it's still growth.

The same is true for wages and unemployment. Short of a no deal there will not be a sudden en mass movement to the continent, instead it may simply mean less future investment so slower wage rises and hiring, but still wage rises and hiring.

There is no credible scenario of us signing a trade deal and entering a recession next year as a result. Even the IMF acknowledges that uncertainty has cost more than likely departing in an orderly manner will.
All of that based on the assumption that Boris and the EU will be able to get a half decent trade deal together. Without it, and with tariffs, you can forget any growth.

Any idea when the pound will go back up to pre Brexit level? No, me either...
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MonkeyChunks
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#39
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#39
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
All of that based on the assumption that Boris and the EU will be able to get a half decent trade deal together. Without it, and with tariffs, you can forget any growth.

Any idea when the pound will go back up to pre Brexit level? No, me either...
You lied. Admit it. "Every single economic forecast" BS. Caught out. Go on, have a pair and own up.
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Doones
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#40
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#40
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
You lied. Admit it. "Every single economic forecast" BS. Caught out. Go on, have a pair and own up.
Pot.
Kettle.
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho...2&postcount=19
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