Will Brexit be good for Britain? Watch

imlikeahermit
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#41
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#41
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
You lied. Admit it. "Every single economic forecast" BS. Caught out. Go on, have a pair and own up.
Every single GDP forecast before that. I hadn’t seen the IMF one. That being said, you’re still negating the issue here. The economy will suffer after Brexit, at least short term, yes?

This would also be the same IMF that forecasted a two year recession after Brexit?
Last edited by imlikeahermit; 3 weeks ago
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Rakas21
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#42
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#42
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Every single GDP forecast before that. I hadn’t seen the IMF one. That being said, you’re still negating the issue here. The economy will suffer after Brexit, at least short term, yes?

This would also be the same IMF that forecasted a two year recession after Brexit?
The Treasury worst case scenario predicted a mild recession, the median estimates of both the Treasury and IMF proved closer to the mark but they don't sell newspapers or get TV audiences.

The Treasury and IMF both forecast relatively good going subject to no-deal as do the OBR and BOE.
Last edited by Rakas21; 3 weeks ago
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ColinDent
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#43
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#43
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
All of that based on the assumption that Boris and the EU will be able to get a half decent trade deal together. Without it, and with tariffs, you can forget any growth.

Any idea when the pound will go back up to pre Brexit level? No, me either...
We're currently not that far behind normal pre brexit pound values, ordinarily it was somewhere in the 1.2's but due to a massive gamble on the result of the referendum rose to an artificially high level immediately prior to said referendum.
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ByEeek
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#44
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#44
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
If they do that the continentals wont have the fish they want and we will impose tarrifs on their goods. And no, it is a lot more than 12 miles, it is 200. UK fishing waters after brexit
Nah. They'll have their fish caught by EU boats 12 miles off our coast. UK caught fish inside 12 miles will be priced out and used as a bargaining chip. After alk, we are small fry compared to the EU. We lost our empire 60 years ago.
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SavageRyan
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#45
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Yes we can but we need to tackle immigration more thoroughly and start deporting more criminals there's too many bad immigrants in the country
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barnetlad
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#46
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#46
I think it is an act of economic self-harm. The question is by how much and we will not really know until the trade deal is concluded. If Mr Johnson gives in to EU wishes so he can get a deal this year, then the damage may be limited a bit.
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Ecdysiastt
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#47
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#47
(Original post by ByEeek)
We are a long way off being back to where we were in 2016
How exactly do you mean
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Ecdysiastt
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#48
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#48
(Original post by ByEeek)
After all, we are small fry compared to the EU. We lost our empire 60 years ago.
Sure, we're 1 vs 27, but economically we're the 3rd largest country in the EU (closely behind france) and we're the 3rd largest contributor to the EU, so they'll definitely feel the effects.

There are also only 10 net contributors to the EU, soon to be 9, and (as of 2016 at least), France and Spain were also unhappy with the EU, and most countries are still fairly 50/50, so if Brexit goes well for us then France and Spain could be stirred to leave, meaning another large chunk of the budget lost and another significant net contributor gone.
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MetricHarmony28
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#49
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#49
My opinion: We cant know for sure what will happen post-Brexit.
Its all well and good making arguments that the country will benefit or regret leaving the EU, but the truth is, we just cant know for sure. I am a remainer as I think we would be safer together as a union and dont want to fall into the hands of nationalistic views, but I acknowledge that perhaps it isn't completely stupid to leave the EU - it very well may turn out to put us in a powerful economic position. One thing is for sure though; Brexit seems like a very risky move, and I personally dont think it is worth the risk. I'm very dissatisfied with Boris' 11-month transition period plan, and how it seems increasingly likely he may have to choose between the US and the EU. But then again, what happens happens. I may be right, I may be wrong. Guess we'll find out quite soon enough (I hope not though Boris needs to extend that transition period lol).
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PTMalewski
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#50
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#50
(Original post by DeesideEwan)
What do you think, can Britain make a success of leaving the E.U?
In short term, like 1-5 years, not.

In a long term, like 20 years it can be terrific, considering the EU's mismanagement, bureaucracy and socialism.
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SuspiciousDuck
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#51
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#51
(Original post by DeesideEwan)
What do you think, can Britain make a success of leaving the E.U?
Maybe, maybe not, will we be better than we were in the EU? Probably not, leaving the largest trading bloc in the world (in it's simplest form) seems a bit foolish if we are trying to achieve a strong economy.
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Olly_Hp
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#52
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#52
(Original post by SuspiciousDuck)
Maybe, maybe not, will we be better than we were in the EU? Probably not, leaving the largest trading bloc in the world (in it's simplest form) seems a bit foolish if we are trying to achieve a strong economy.
85% of the world trade outside of the single market, Connect with nations such as America, Canada, Australia, besides EU nations would have to be complete tossers if they didn't want to trade with us.
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williamho
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#53
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#53
this so called 85% of the world trade outside the EU single largest market . Please could you provide the proof.
Is it by volume as in money ? or by head count ? or by trade agreement ?
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MonkeyChunks
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#54
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#54
So the government ignoring the will of the Scottish government is an example of me lying? :eek3:
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MonkeyChunks
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#55
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#55
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Every single GDP forecast before that. I hadn’t seen the IMF one. That being said, you’re still negating the issue here. The economy will suffer after Brexit, at least short term, yes?

This would also be the same IMF that forecasted a two year recession after Brexit?
Yes, the IMF changed their minds.

Will the economy suffer after Brexit? No, it wont. It will change, it will adapt, but not suffer.

If you are worried about Brexit costing 2% of GDP, what do you think of HS2, since it will coast 4%?


Is HS2 going to cause 'suffering'?

How bout foreign aid, 0.7% of GDP. Does that cause 'suffering'?
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MonkeyChunks
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#56
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#56
(Original post by ByEeek)
Nah. They'll have their fish caught by EU boats 12 miles off our coast. UK caught fish inside 12 miles will be priced out and used as a bargaining chip. After alk, we are small fry compared to the EU. We lost our empire 60 years ago.
Only if the EU are given access to our waters, if not the limit is 200 miles. Actually we are not small fry to the EU, we are as big as half the EU put together, and Germanys biggest export.

The London stock exchange is the size of all EU stock exchanges put together, and the London 4X market is the biggest in the world.
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MonkeyChunks
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#57
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#57
(Original post by barnetlad)
I think it is an act of economic self-harm. The question is by how much and we will not really know until the trade deal is concluded. If Mr Johnson gives in to EU wishes so he can get a deal this year, then the damage may be limited a bit.
So what is HS2, costing 100 bn, 4% of GDP if a no deal Brexit is only 2% of GDP, suicide?
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MonkeyChunks
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#58
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#58
(Original post by SuspiciousDuck)
Maybe, maybe not, will we be better than we were in the EU? Probably not, leaving the largest trading bloc in the world (in it's simplest form) seems a bit foolish if we are trying to achieve a strong economy.
How are even WTO terms, a mere 3% on goods, a problem when sterling is already 16% cheaper than in 2016?

Our goods are still cheaper in Europe then when we were in the customs union in 2016.
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Rakas21
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#59
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#59
(Original post by williamho)
this so called 85% of the world trade outside the EU single largest market . Please could you provide the proof.
Is it by volume as in money ? or by head count ? or by trade agreement ?
It's by revenue and it's correct (a simple Google search of the annual pwc analysis will give you the report - I'm on mobile so can't link right now), by 2050 the EU will account for about 9% as China and India grow.

(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
So what is HS2, costing 100 bn, 4% of GDP if a no deal Brexit is only 2% of GDP, suicide?
A no deal Brexit is 6-9%, 2% was the May deal.

HS2 is not 4% of GDP in the sense that it's not paid for in one year (30 years). It actually only costs about 2bn per year.
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ByEeek
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#60
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#60
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
Only if the EU are given access to our waters, if not the limit is 200 miles. Actually we are not small fry to the EU, we are as big as half the EU put together, and Germanys biggest export.

The London stock exchange is the size of all EU stock exchanges put together, and the London 4X market is the biggest in the world.
200 miles? I never knew that. Thanks.
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