Will Brexit be good for Britain? Watch

Rakas21
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#81
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#81
(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
No, a no deal Brexit is 2% of GDP, according to the BoE, although as with all these guestimates, they are being revised closer to zero or positive.

No, HS2 will take 13 years to build services on Phase 2b of HS2 will begin in 2033.
No. The bank of England’s latest no deal guidance is from September and suggests a 5.5% impact on GDP (a downgrade from its initial prediction of 8%).

The May deal was 1.8%, the Boris deal is 3.5%.

(all relative to forecast growth out to 2030)

HS2 will indeed take 13 years to build but the way it’s financed means that it’s paid for over 30 years.
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MonkeyChunks
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#82
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(Original post by Rakas21)
No. The bank of England’s latest no deal guidance is from September and suggests a 5.5% impact on GDP (a downgrade from its initial prediction of 8%).

The May deal was 1.8%, the Boris deal is 3.5%.

(all relative to forecast growth out to 2030)

HS2 will indeed take 13 years to build but the way it’s financed means that it’s paid for over 30 years.
Yeah, you are right, it was 5.5%

Of course King, the previous head of the BoE is much less gloomy. There is a vid of him being interviewed on youtube.

I think Carney is juts a globalist looking to scare people, IMO Brexit will be a benefit to Britain, even a WTO one.

(Canada is exporting 10% less to the EU with its trade deal than it was on WTO terms, so dont think a deal with the EU will benefit us, they are deceitful *******s and have stitched the Canadians up. )

And dont forget Brexit can be (will be) financed over time with govt debt. So again, I say, HS2 is as at least as bad as the worst no deal Brexit prediction.
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Rakas21
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#83
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(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
Yeah, you are right, it was 5.5%

Of course King, the previous head of the BoE is much less gloomy. There is a vid of him being interviewed on youtube.

I think Carney is juts a globalist looking to scare people, IMO Brexit will be a benefit to Britain, even a WTO one.

(Canada is exporting 10% less to the EU with its trade deal than it was on WTO terms, so dont think a deal with the EU will benefit us, they are deceitful *******s and have stitched the Canadians up. )
Yeah, King has been relatively optimistic regarding Brexit (albeit like most of the establishment opposed to No Deal). His book 'The End of Alchemy' is on my 'to buy' list.

Although Carney is instinctively a Remainer he gets far too much hate. As head of the BOE they are obligated by the treasury to produce scenario based forecasts and can't really make many assumptions, there is very little he can personally do to influence these forecasts or refuse to produce them.

Perhaps a bit early to judge given that global trade actually declined in 2019 and that EU manufacturing (including the UK) has been at or below recession levels (largely an impact of the US-China trade war crushing demand in the sector).

That said the early stages of trade agreements can produce large short term effects, in some cases it becomes more economical to repatriate production if the tariff or regulatory barriers were large enough before. We'll need to take several years to properly evaluate.
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MonkeyChunks
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#84
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Yeah, King has been relatively optimistic regarding Brexit (albeit like most of the establishment opposed to No Deal). His book 'The End of Alchemy' is on my 'to buy' list.

Although Carney is instinctively a Remainer he gets far too much hate. As head of the BOE they are obligated by the treasury to produce scenario based forecasts and can't really make many assumptions, there is very little he can personally do to influence these forecasts or refuse to produce them.

Perhaps a bit early to judge given that global trade actually declined in 2019 and that EU manufacturing (including the UK) has been at or below recession levels (largely an impact of the US-China trade war crushing demand in the sector).

That said the early stages of trade agreements can produce large short term effects, in some cases it becomes more economical to repatriate production if the tariff or regulatory barriers were large enough before. We'll need to take several years to properly evaluate.
Exactly, against the backdrop of global fall off in trade, Britains figures, despite Brexit, look very good.

I think everything looks rosy personally, the Germans will force the EU to give us a good deal, which we dont really need (WTO only adds 3% to our goods, Sterling is 15% cheaper anyway since 2016).

We already have a harder border at Calais than we do at Liverpool, so I see little disruption after the initial few weeks adaptation. And Calais is keen to keep the traffic flowing, they will do everything to accommodate whatever is needed.

Food went up 15% when we joined the EEC, because of French tariffs to protect farmers. All things being equal, they will drop 15% as we import low tariff food from around the world.

Trade deals will suit our economy, not an average if 27 (mostly backwards) ones.

Whats not to like about Brexit? Even WTO/nodeal is a walk in the park.
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Doones
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#85
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(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
Food went up 15% when we joined the EEC, because of French tariffs to protect farmers. All things being equal, they will drop 15% as we import low tariff food from around the world.
No.

From Hansard 1974:
"The increase in the United Kingdom retail price index for food attributable to our membership of the EEC is currently estimated to be between ½ and 1 per cent."

https://api.parliament.uk/historic-h...ership-effects
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SuspiciousDuck
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#86
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(Original post by Olly_Hp)
85% of the world trade outside of the single market, Connect with nations such as America, Canada, Australia, besides EU nations would have to be complete tossers if they didn't want to trade with us.
The problem with this thinking is that it's not as simple as switching trade from one country to another, a lot of specialist goods are produced on in certain countries (for example a lot of radioactive isotopes are manufactured only in France) and importing these goods after brexit are not only just wanted, but critical for organisations like the NHS (for specialized medicinal equipment) and the energy sector. The other thing we have to consider is that the EU is made up of 27 other countries, while we are a big player and it's certainly a loss to the EU for us to go, it's a bigger loss for us to lose free access to 27 other markets (2 of which are larger than our own).
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MonkeyChunks
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#87
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(Original post by Doones)
No.

From Hansard 1974:
"The increase in the United Kingdom retail price index for food attributable to our membership of the EEC is currently estimated to be between ½ and 1 per cent."

https://api.parliament.uk/historic-h...ership-effects
the 1971 White Paper The United Kingdom and the European Communities, which set out Ted Heath’s case for joining the then European Community, “estimated that membership will affect food prices over a period of about six years with an increase of about 2.5 per cent each year”

The increase was so great it had to be staggered over six years.

How 'price of butter QUADRUPLED' after UK joined bloc and entered Common Market

etc
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Doones
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#88
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Can you find me a non Express source please.
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HRobson_BMC
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Perhaps it will be good in the long-term, but I think it will be significantly longer than a few years before we see these improvements.

It all depends on how we manage the coming months, and if the past 4 years have taught me anything it's that people will refuse to put aside their differences to work towards a common goal.

The only way I see the situation improving before 2030 is if Tories and Labour can work together, but sadly for the past 4 years all that they've done is bicker and achieve very little.

It's a pity that while not all Leave supporters share the xenophobic (read: racist) mindsets of a certain few, these few have become synonymous with the Leave movement and as such their messages will become more prevalent among the people.

Living in a Leave hotspot in the country I can't imagine the local fauna getting any worse yet this will just encourage them and their less than pleasant attitudes.

Also, the UK is done for. Scotland and Northern Ireland will most likely break away in a year or two. I'm not a gambler but I'd bet that the days of the UK are numbered.
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MonkeyChunks
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(Original post by Doones)
Can you find me a non Express source please.
Oh **** off. The first one is the telegraph you ignorant narrow minded ****.
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Doones
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(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
Oh **** off. The first one is the telegraph you ignorant narrow minded ****.
Language, Timothy.

I gave you actual data as provided in a parliametary answer from 1974 rather than a 1972 forecast. I'd suggest that's more relevant. And food prices had been increasing significantly since 1970, well before joining the EEC.

Also reducing prices now much further will decimate UK agriculture.
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BlueIndigoViolet
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#92
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#92
Expectation:



Reality:
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MonkeyChunks
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#93
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(Original post by Doones)
Language, Timothy.

I gave you actual data as provided in a parliametary answer from 1974 rather than a 1972 forecast. I'd suggest that's more relevant. And food prices had been increasing significantly since 1970, well before joining the EEC.

Also reducing prices now much further will decimate UK agriculture.
What you gave was a discussion in the house of commons about what might happen. What I gave you was what DID happen.

Yes, UK farmers will no longer be protected by high tariffs, tell me, what other industries do you think should be protected, at cost to the consumer?
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Occitanie
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
It can do, depends on who is leading it and ultimately we have an absolute muppet running Britain, so the chance of success is low. That is, if we don't sell out our country to go from being a member of the EU and having full voting rights etc to being the 51st state of the USA or some protectorate or colony, which looks entirely feasible
Becoming the US’ 51st state?!?

Preposterous.
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Doones
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(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
What you gave was a discussion in the house of commons about what might happen. What I gave you was what DID happen.

Yes, UK farmers will no longer be protected by high tariffs, tell me, what other industries do you think should be protected, at cost to the consumer?
So no industry needs protection or state intervention?
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MonkeyChunks
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(Original post by Doones)
So no industry needs protection or state intervention?
Answer the question, what other industries should be protected at cost to the consumer, since clearly you think all farming should be.

What is on your list, car manufacturers, hair dressers?

What do yo think will be the impact on the quality of the product when it is protected from market forces. Will it improve, degrade, or remain the same. Remember, what ever they sling out, they are guaranteed a price, yeah?
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Doones
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I see, so you are a free marketeer.

In which case that's definitely not what most Leavers voted for, or indeed the C2DEs in the "red wall".
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Rakas21
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#98
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(Original post by Doones)
So no industry needs protection or state intervention?
State intervention and protection are not the same thing per say.

I for example believe that tarrifs and subsidies are generally foolish (in the long run the disinflationary benefits of lower prices and taxes are more beneficial in jobs and growth) however I am actually open to preventing foreign control of publicly traded firms and in addition I actually consider not being tied to EU state aid rules in the negotiations to be of vital importance so that a British Investment Bank can provide capital for automation in select industries (small businesses exporting, crop and dairy rather than meat farming).

Generally speaking just providing a direct subsidy or putting up tarrifs is stupid because it's a cost to the consumer or taxpayer with minimal incentive for the firm in receipt to innovate or invest in measures to reduce unit costs. By allowing competition but targettting automation you aid British firms by making them more competitive.
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MonkeyChunks
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(Original post by Doones)
I see, so you are a free marketeer.

In which case that's definitely not what most Leavers voted for, or indeed the C2DEs in the "red wall".
The two are totally unconnected. You might equally say that leavers didnt vote for longer drinking hours, or the ending of smart motorways.

Leavers voted for personal reasons, and they are wide and varied. You nor I can hope to understand fully all of them, but just make vague guesses.
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Doones
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(Original post by MonkeyChunks)
The two are totally unconnected. You might equally say that leavers didnt vote for longer drinking hours, or the ending of smart motorways.

Leavers voted for personal reasons, and they are wide and varied. You nor I can hope to understand fully all of them, but just make vague guesses.
I didn't say all, I said most. Check the postRef polling analysis.
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