We could have 200,000 people killed by the Wuhan virus by the 16th of February!

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Thisismyunitsr
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According to Reddit a computer scientist made a model of the number of people dying due to coronavirus and it’s worryingly accurate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/c...omment/ffjxm2z

200,000 confirmed deaths by February the 16th 2020. This is the end.
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curry_cel
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its natural selection, the majority of the people dying are men and unhealthy/unattractive women
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Thisismyunitsr
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(Original post by curry_cel)
its natural selection, the majority of the people dying are men and unhealthy/unattractive women
Don’t be an ***hole
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DiddyDec
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To put that into perspective;

That is 0.014% of the Chinese population and 0.0025% of the Human population.

It is negligible at best.
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AngeryPenguin
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Absurd scaremongering lol

He is just extrapolating figures with no inclusion for the wise measures the government is taking to contain the virus.

Besides, viruses like this mutate to become less deadly. The worst case scenario is that it will simply join influenza as a seasonal virus. Already look at who it is killing - almost nobody under the age of 60.
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the beer
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(Original post by DiddyDecAlt)
To put that into perspective;

That is 0.014% of the Chinese population and 0.0025% of the Human population.

It is negligible at best.
What's that almost10000 for a UK sized population? Is that really negligible?
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watershower
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i have faith that it will be controlled by then
condolences to the families who have lost someone due to this virus
and i hope the tourists trapped can return home soon safely
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AzureCeleste
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I reckon it will be controlled by then.
Also there are many factors playing into people's cause of death- currently all are immunocompromised in some way or another (age, chronic conditions etc.). As far as I'm aware, 'healthy' people haven't died yet, if they do die then I will reconsider, but we have yet to have that many people infected and so far they are doing a lot to control it. I wouldn't worry and believe that figure yet
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by the beer)
What's that almost 10000 for a UK sized population? Is that really negligible?
Yes, however the fact remains it has so far killed 81 people who were either old or have pre-existing conditions.

Seasonal flus typically kill between 200,000 to 600,000 a year with no news coverage. This one isn't that special, they haven't even given it a catchy name like Swine flu or SARS.
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the beer
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(Original post by DiddyDecAlt)
Seasonal flus typically kill between 200,000 to 600,000 a year with no news coverage.
Worldwide, only about 600 here just to keep it in perspective.
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by the beer)
Worldwide, only about 600 here just to keep it in perspective.
After the first month there have been 81 deaths worldwide, not exactly the black death.
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yeetouttawindow
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(Original post by DiddyDecAlt)
Yes, however the fact remains it has so far killed 81 people who were either old or have pre-existing conditions.

Seasonal flus typically kill between 200,000 to 600,000 a year with no news coverage. This one isn't that special, they haven't even given it a catchy name like Swine flu or SARS.
thats what they want us to think
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by steamed-hams)
thats what they want us to think
I'm not opposed to a natural cull.
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Guyverjay
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(Original post by curry_cel)
its natural selection, the majority of the people dying are men and unhealthy/unattractive women
That will be your days numbered then
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papie
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(Original post by curry_cel)
its natural selection, the majority of the people dying are men and unhealthy/unattractive women
lol :d :d :d
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fallen_acorns
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if nothing were done about it, maybe this could be true. But as someone who is in China, that's far from whats happening.

People here are taking this very seriously. Its bassically Christmas week here (their equivilant) and its usually as busy and hectic as a british christmas, and yet everyone is at home, avoiding going out as much as possible, and not even seeing their family. When they do go out, 99% of people I see are wearing masks all the time, and avoiding any chance of spreading. Any people with cold symptoms are isolating themselves, including some of my family just to be safe and avoid any spread of anything that could force people to worry/head to the hospital. Classes/groups/meet-ups have all stopped, markets are closed, and so are most businesses except food shops and essentials as far as I can see.

I flew out of shanghai yesterday, returning from holiday, and the airport is empty.. 8 people were on my plane. Health checks and masks all round. Bear in mind this should be the busiest time of travel in the world, and the last time I flew during the festival it was crazy and heaving with people. Schools/work has been persponed, and the governments/local authorities have already said that they are prepared to take even more steps to limit and combat this.

Don't get me wrong, its going to take a while to deal with, and its going to keep getting worse before it gets better.. but the idea that it will just grow expidentally at the same rate that it did before any action was taking, is wrong.

People here are taking this very serriously. Actually the only people in the airports that I flew through who weren't wearing masks/protection were non-chinese foreigners transfering through.
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Wōden
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(Original post by DiddyDecAlt)
To put that into perspective;

That is 0.014% of the Chinese population and 0.0025% of the Human population.

It is negligible at best.
200,000 people killed within the space of just one month is NOT negligable. To put that into perspective, the last serious global pandemic, 2009 Swine Flu, killed around 300,000 people over a period of a year and half.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, it hasn't happened yet and might not happen.
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by Wōden)
200,000 people killed within the space of just one month is NOT negligable. To put that into perspective, the last serious global pandemic, 2009 Swine Flu, killed around 300,000 people over a period of a year and half.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, it hasn't happened yet and might not happen.
In the first month of the virus it has killed 100 people. 200,000 in the second month is simply ridiculous.
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Em.-.
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200,000 is extreme. I reckon it will be worse than SARS but I’ve only heard of one younger healthy person (aged 30 something) dying, so it will most likely be the elderly, those with weakened immune systems and very young children who die. Of course just because the majority will likely recover doesn’t mean we should ignore the health of these people, yet it’s the excuse people have for not taking it seriously enough.

SARS infected 8000 and killed 800 over more than a year, well that’s what was recorded anyway, and the novel Coronavirus has infected around 5000 already. Over 100 are dead yet there are many in critical condition so the mortality rate could rise. The rate can only be determined by comparing those who have actually recovered with those who died, rather than comparing deaths to number of cases as many of these will be critical.

It’s already been spread human to human in Germany and Japan, so stopping transport from just China isn’t going to prevent it, which hasn’t even been done anyway. Of course the government will likely put the economy before people’s health so I doubt all transportation will be shut down. Action should have been taken in Wuhan in December before it was that serious, but they left it too late.

Edit: if not stopped soon enough the virus will likely mutate (as it’s already believed to have started to) and become more infectious and also potentially more dangerous, killing a greater number of people, including those who are currently young and healthy.
Last edited by Em.-.; 11 months ago
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Wōden
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(Original post by DiddyDecAlt)
In the first month of the virus it has killed 100 people. 200,000 in the second month is simply ridiculous.
I'm not at all suggesting it's going to happen, I'm just saying if it did, it wouldn't be considered 'negligable', we'd be looking at a very serious situation at that point.
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