Rakas21
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With the closure of the International Section in D&CA (why oh why) i am creating this thread to discuss the US Primaries (primarily Democrat since i doubt Trump will have a serious challenge on his side) as they go on.

The Primaries will run from tomorrow night through to June with each state assigning a number of delegates to the candidates in an electoral college format. The Democrat system is a little more complex than the Republican system because some delegates are assigned in a different manner.

In terms of the dates most occur weekly (see the link below) with the Iowa Caucus tomorrow night and the New Hampshire Primary on the 11th whittling the field down from the dozen or so now to a small handful. The next date for your diary is March 3rd known as 'Super Tuesday' when 15 states will grant their delegates for both the Democrats and Republicans. After that it comes down to who has the money to stay in (Bloomberg for example) and how close the contest is.

https://www.uspresidentialelectionne...dule-calendar/

In terms of the Democrat field the race right now is currently percieved to be between Biden and Sanders with 538 predicting that a brokered convention (no candidate getting 50% of delegates) is more likely than anybody but those two candidates winning. Biden is currently (based on polling from all states) given a 45% chance of victory to Sanders 29%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...forecast/iowa/

- Note that while discussion of who may beat Trump is valid, this will not be permitted to become a thread in which people bash Trump rather than discussing issues relating to the Primaries. As such if you wish to waffle about the impeachment you can take it to the appropriate thread.

I am more than happy to report posts and ask for off topic posts to be removed.

- For those Republicans among us this thread is for you too, your obviously just going to have less to talk about without a shock.

- I will aim to update this thread with discussion pieces at least twice per week.
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DSilva
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The energy and momentum seems to be with Sanders at the moment. He is also polling well compared to Trump.
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Knortfoxx
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I'm still hoping Yang wins honestly. Out of Biden and Bernie, I'm hoping Bernie wins. He's consistently campaigned for workers' rights, better education, no more forever wars, healthcare, women's rights, gay rights etc.. Biden would probably not beat trump anyway, considering he's an establishment democrat and more or less exactly the same as Hillary.
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Napp
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(Original post by Knortfoxx)
I'm still hoping Yang wins honestly. Out of Biden and Bernie, I'm hoping Bernie wins. He's consistently campaigned for workers' rights, better education, no more forever wars, healthcare, women's rights, gay rights etc.. Biden would probably not beat trump anyway, considering he's an establishment democrat and more or less exactly the same as Hillary.
In fairness Biden has a much better chance of beating Trump than the crusty old Sanders who whilst having a dedicated base has little appeal beyond that, especially in America where the word socialist is rather akin to calling someone a ****.
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Knortfoxx
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(Original post by Napp)
In fairness Biden has a much better chance of beating Trump than the crusty old Sanders who whilst having a dedicated base has little appeal beyond that, especially in America where the word socialist is rather akin to calling someone a ****.
Biden has the same chance of beating Trump as Hillary did - obviously not a very high one. Sanders, however, appeals to people who voted for Trump on "down with the establishment" grounds, because Sanders is also a "down with the establishment" type of person.
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fallen_acorns
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I thought Sanders would have beaten trump back in 2016.. not so sure these days though. I don't really see one outstanding character in the Democrat field that makes me confident they will win.

That's not to say they won't.. maybe I'm wrong (because it seems to go against what the comentators are saying) but I can't see trump picking up more votes than he did in 2016. All I can see is a whittling down of his base to the more core middle.. I can't see where hes picking up new voters from. If you didn't support him in 2016, I don't see what would have changed your mind since then. For me the real question is not about trumps base, but can the democrats choose a candidate that will energise and grow their base in a way that hillary couldn't.

Biden is probably the best bet.. because while he won't get the core democrat voters excited, he will win over a lot of moderates, and those core voters don't exactly have anywhere else to go, so they will vote for him regardless. Sanders, I'm not sure about, he doesn't seem to have the momentum and energy he had last time. It reminds me of Corbyn 2019 vs 2017.. hes still there, doing well, saying his thing, but the moment seems to have passed.

Pete is a dark horse.. Warren is a walking nightmare.. Bloomberg seems to just be annoying people by running.

Were I in charge of the DNC, I'd probably place my bets with Biden.. even though I personally like sanders more.
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Captain Haddock
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(Original post by fallen_acorns)
Biden is probably the best bet.. because while he won't get the core democrat voters excited, he will win over a lot of moderates, and those core voters don't exactly have anywhere else to go, so they will vote for him regardless. Sanders, I'm not sure about, he doesn't seem to have the momentum and energy he had last time. It reminds me of Corbyn 2019 vs 2017.. hes still there, doing well, saying his thing, but the moment seems to have passed.
What makes you say that? I remember him being more of a protest candidate in 2016, albeit a successful one, but this time round he seems to be in with a real chance. I'm seeing a ton of momentum. Just look at his donations. He also has way more support in congress than last time round, and in general is a substantially higher profile candidate. It'll definitely be a tough fight and we'll see what happens in Iowa tonight but the polls are looking favourable.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
What makes you say that? I remember him being more of a protest candidate in 2016, albeit a successful one, but this time round he seems to be in with a real chance. I'm seeing a ton of momentum. Just look at his donations. He also has way more support in congress than last time round, and in general is a substantially higher profile candidate. It'll definitely be a tough fight and we'll see what happens in Iowa tonight but the polls are looking favourable.
He's expected to win the first three contests before Biden wins in South Carolina. Super Tuesday looks split but California will put the edge in Sanders favour leaving that.

That said i question whether he can draw enough moderates to win once the contest drops to two or three candidates.
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
What makes you say that? I remember him being more of a protest candidate in 2016, albeit a successful one, but this time round he seems to be in with a real chance. I'm seeing a ton of momentum. Just look at his donations. He also has way more support in congress than last time round, and in general is a substantially higher profile candidate. It'll definitely be a tough fight and we'll see what happens in Iowa tonight but the polls are looking favourable.
I'm just basing it on what I hear, and The only time hes really popped up in any positive way over the last month or two has been the recent controversy with Warren, which seems to have ended up playing very well for him and giving him a good boost. For me the problem he has is that you only really get the impact of his radical views once, and that was in 2016. The second time you hear them, they don't have the same buzz they did the first. I agree that he started as a protest candidate in 2016, but he grew into a winning force that should have, if the DNC hadn't conspired against him, won the nomination.

I think a large part of the reason he is doing well currently is that the race is weaker and more fractured than last time. While Hillary proved to be a disaster against trump, as a primary candidate she was stronger than any of the current field we have this time around. It took an absolutely amazing performance by him to even get close to becoming the nomination against such an established and ruthless political force.

This time around hes competing against Biden, who is nothing compared to Hillary at this stage (although I do think hes a better match-up against trump), Warren who is self-imploding by the week.. and then a whole load of light-weight nobodies who while they may have some great ideas and be great people, aren't really going to win.

So for me, I agree with you that he has more of a chance this time, and that hes doing far better.. but for me its more that hes against a weaker field, where he is the established name, uposed to it being because he is performing or speaking/campaigning better than last time. I really think in 2016, he would have carried his momentum through and beaten trump. This time, I'm just not confident.
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Rakas21
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Most people are expecting Sanders to win tonight (538 suggests 28% of the vote) but a final Iowa poll tonight has actually put Buttineg ahead which would be a shock.

Bloomberg is confirmed to only be a paper candidate before Super Tuesday (so he’ll let the field reduce before he jumps in).
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Rakas21
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I'm sure you'll all be surprised to find out that Trump won the Republican Iowa caucus with 97% of the vote.

You'll also be highly amused to find out that the voting system for the Democrats has completely gone caput with no result until later today now. The final poll appears to be accurate based from internal data however with both Sanders and Buttineg claiming victory. Since Butinegg posted data from 77% of districts to Sanders 40% it would suggest that the Buttineg camp have the most reason to be confident.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I'm sure you'll all be surprised to find out that Trump won the Republican Iowa caucus with 97% of the vote.

You'll also be highly amused to find out that the voting system for the Democrats has completely gone caput with no result until later today now. The final poll appears to be accurate based from internal data however with both Sanders and Buttineg claiming victory. Since Butinegg posted data from 77% of districts to Sanders 40% it would suggest that the Buttineg camp have the most reason to be confident.
RIP Iowa caucuses

After the Republican failure in 2012 when Romney, correction Santorum, correction Paul won despite several precincts' results disappearing into the aether, I can't see these caucuses being held again.
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Captain Haddock
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Christ what a shambles. The only way this could get worse is if Booty Judge actually pulls it off.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
Christ what a shambles. The only way this could get worse is if Booty Judge actually pulls it off.
You’d prefer grey Biden or Commie Sanders?
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Captain Haddock
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(Original post by Rakas21)
You’d prefer grey Biden or Commie Sanders?
If Bernie isn't the next POTUS America is 100% cancelled.
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Drewski
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
If Bernie isn't the next POTUS America is 100% cancelled.
America is 100% cancelled.
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Captain Haddock
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(Original post by Drewski)
America is 100% cancelled.
At least if Biden gets the nom it'll be funny watching the libs get so appalled when their safe, electable, establishment candidate loses to Trump. Again.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
At least if Biden gets the nom it'll be funny watching the libs get so appalled when their safe, electable, establishment candidate loses to Trump. Again.
Biden and Trump fighting each other in debates, both unable to string a coherent sentence together, would be a site to behold.
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ChaoticButterfly
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Rakas21
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Democrats has released 62% of the result and it confirms the surprise..

Buttigieg: 26%
Sanders: 25%
Warren: 18%
Biden: 15%
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