Rakas21
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#41
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#41
Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday (also a Trump target state in 2020) it's worth saying that Iowa does appear to damaged Biden in polling with moderates rallying to Buttigieg. In all five polls released on Tuesday and Wednesday he now has second place albeit Sanders is forecast to win.
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generallee
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#42
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#42
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
A belief that labour were betraying them, not because labour supported all people, but because labour abandoned a commitment to leave and instead talked about a second referendum. By doing so, the message labour sent out was that they were for this "metropolitan elite" and the political establishment that never wanted Brexit, rather than representing the people. Meanwhile, Johnson was out there pretending to be a man of the people, loveable scoundrel you could have a pint with and seemed like he was actually listening to them by pushing brexit forward. Let's be clear, no-one is losing many if any votes by saying "let's aid refugees" or "let's let trans people piss in peace", they're losing votes by appearing to only represent the desires of the political establishment, not the people they're supposed to represent.

You think those things matter because you're obsessed, but the majority of people don't care about other people's business, they just want politicians who at least appear to listen. Hell, that's why Corbyn was elected as leader in the first place, because he actually established a connection with the party voters rather than seeming like just a continuation of the highly polished PR based leader.
Johnson didn't "seem like" he was listening, he did listen, he HAD listened. That is his particular political genius. I don't doubt he had no strong views on Brexit either way, nor that he has few if any political convictions, he is in it for himself, for the sake of power. He famously wrote out two articles, pro and against Brexit when the time came to choose, before the Referendum.

But he read the runes, he listened, and took his gamble, and won. Labour's leadership couldn't even feel the way the wind was blowing AFTER the Referendum. So deservedly got torn a new 'rsehole by the electorate. In that sense I agree with you.

Anyway this isn't on topic for the thread, so I'll stop, now.
Last edited by generallee; 3 weeks ago
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Stiff Little Fingers
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#43
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#43
(Original post by generallee)
Johnson didn't "seem like" he was listening, he did listen, he HAD listened. That is his particular political genius. I don't doubt he had no strong views on Brexit either way, nor that he has few if any political convictions, he is in it for himself, for the sake of power. He famously wrote out two articles, pro and against Brexit when the time came to choose, before the Referendum.

But he read the runes, he listened, and took his gamble, and won. Labour's leadership couldn't even feel the way the wind was blowing AFTER the Referendum. So deservedly got torn a new 'rsehole by the electorate. In that sense I agree with you.

Anyway this isn't on topic for the thread, so I'll stop, now.
No, just like Trump in 2016 he seemed like he was listening, in reality he's only out for himself - the two articles you highlighted demonstrates that, run whichever way the wind is blowing - just as for all Trumps talk of draining the swamp etc the US is still as corrupt as ever. Difference is they don't come across as out of touch technocrats - that is why labour will be wiped out again if they elect Starmer and why Trump will get a second term if the Dems field Biden or Buttigieg.
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Jammy Duel
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#44
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#44
Iowa just gets better and better, IDP have announced they're recanvassing because there are so many inconsistencies in the results as declared, as reported here.

Would be hilarious is New Hampshire ends up being the first state to declare final results on the Democrats side.
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generallee
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#45
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#45
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Iowa just gets better and better, IDP have announced they're recanvassing because there are so many inconsistencies in the results as declared, as reported here.

Would be hilarious is New Hampshire ends up being the first state to declare final results on the Democrats side.
It is a total farce. As so many Republicans have gleefully pointed out, if the Democrats can't even organise a caucus, with four year's notice, how can they be trusted to run the country?

The absurd impeachment process was even more damaging however. Republicans were (semi) seriously talking about allowing witnesses to be called because the longer the partisan circus continued, the better it would be for Trump. As it is he has emerged with record approval ratings.

If you didn't like the fact he got elected last time, defeat him the next! That is how democracy works. You only have to wait a few months...

Add to it Pelosi tearing up his speech like a demented grandmother off her meds, and the weird white witch stuff and you realise the Democrats can't help themselves. They have a death wish...
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Rakas21
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#46
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#46
Tonight sees the New Hampshire primary (results won't be out until morning our time so i'd not wait up).

As alluded to the other day this looks like a simple two horse race with polls suggesting that Sanders will win on around 28% of the vote followed by Buttiguig in second on around 23%.

Provided we have no screw ups with the results we should start to see candidates pull out of the race now after poor results.
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ohdearstudying
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#47
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#47
Hoping Tulsi picks up some votes, she is the candidate I have been supporting from the start but she has been in essence silenced by the media. She did make some fatal strategic errors in Iowa (she had not campaigned since October) but she moved her staff on to New Hampshire very quickly. I know it is so unlikely at this point but one can dream!
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Stiff Little Fingers
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#48
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#48
Absolutely outrageous coverage - Amy Klobuchar beats Warren and Biden and everyone describes it as a surge rather than the Klobucharge? The pun is right there, it's an open goal.


As expected, Bernie wins but the disaster of these first two for Biden is crucial imo. Mayo Pete won't sustain this so Bidens poor start really hands the momentum towards Bernie.
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Rakas21
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#49
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#49
As mentioned above Sanders won the New Hampshire Primary with Buttigieg coming second (25.7% to 24.4%) with Warren and Biden performing poorly and getting less than 10% of the vote.

Yang and two other candidates i did not know existed have withdrawn so the field is slowly being whittled down (now down to 7 in effect).

The next race is in Nevada a week on Saturday in which Sanders is expected to win (it's his most favorable early state - 538 is forecasting 38% of the vote as things stand) however with Biden not bothering to campaign (he's gone straight to South Carolina) and the pattern of polling post-Iowa suggesting Buttigieg being the person gaining from that his hope will be to come a clear second and pile up the delegate numbers while Biden presumably expects another poor result.

On the national front Bloomberg remains in a clear third (but if Biden fails to win South Carolina you'd expect him to withdraw) and is forecast by one poll to be leading in Arkansas now. To remind you, he will enter the race on Super Tuesday.
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DSilva
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#50
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#50
(Original post by Rakas21)
As mentioned above Sanders won the New Hampshire Primary with Buttigieg coming second (25.7% to 24.4%) with Warren and Biden performing poorly and getting less than 10% of the vote.

Yang and two other candidates i did not know existed have withdrawn so the field is slowly being whittled down (now down to 7 in effect).

The next race is in Nevada a week on Saturday in which Sanders is expected to win (it's his most favorable early state - 538 is forecasting 38% of the vote as things stand) however with Biden not bothering to campaign (he's gone straight to South Carolina) and the pattern of polling post-Iowa suggesting Buttigieg being the person gaining from that his hope will be to come a clear second and pile up the delegate numbers while Biden presumably expects another poor result.

On the national front Bloomberg remains in a clear third (but if Biden fails to win South Carolina you'd expect him to withdraw) and is forecast by one poll to be leading in Arkansas now. To remind you, he will enter the race on Super Tuesday.
Bloomberg is probably the one candidate that would get inside Trump's head, given he's a lot richer and had a more successful business career than Trump has.
Last edited by DSilva; 2 weeks ago
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Rakas21
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#51
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#51
A couple of interesting Primary polls have come in worth reporting (problem before was most polls were pre-Iowa)..

Bloomberg now leads in both Florida and Arkensas. Florida of course is the fourth largest state for delegates.
Biden leads in Georgia and South Carolina where he's put all his eggs, it does suggest there is still genuine support for him. More interestingly Biden is also polling second in Nevada so Buttigieg may indeed have been outperforming in the first two states.

With Sanders also forecast to win states that does indeed increase the chances of the field being heavily split for quite a while. Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg are all cash rich enough to stay and neither Buttigieg or Biden will want to drop out if they have won states.
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Rakas21
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#52
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#52
Still a few days to go before the Nevada primary (Sat) however the debate is tomorrow night. Recent Polling for Nevada seems consistent in showing Sanders winning (bar one which has him 4th) however second seems up in the air though it looks like Biden will probably finish second (hope in the old dog yet?), with Buttigieg third (Steyer, Warren and Klobuchar all appear highly erratic in the post-New Hampshire polling for Nevada but are likely to finish in the cheap seats).

No further update for South Carolina.

Updated polls (though only one each) now suggest that Bloomberg may be ahead in Virginia and tied for first in Oklahoma in addition to Arkansas and Florida (the first three are super Tuesday).
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Sabertooth
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#53
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#53
I don't know which horse to back.
Buttigieg I agree most with and want to win but America is not ready for a gay president and Trump will destroy him.
I am not a socialist and I feel like Hilary has put America off having a female president for the near future.
Bloomberg possibly?

I like watching the debates but mostly I want the candidate best able to stand against Trump.
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Rakas21
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#54
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#54
(Original post by Sabertooth)
I don't know which horse to back.
Buttigieg I agree most with and want to win but America is not ready for a gay president and Trump will destroy him.
I am not a socialist and I feel like Hilary has put America off having a female president for the near future.
Bloomberg possibly?

I like watching the debates but mostly I want the candidate best able to stand against Trump.
Why do you dislike Trump relative to those two?
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Sabertooth
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#55
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#55
(Original post by Rakas21)
Why do you dislike Trump relative to those two?
Because I have to live with his whims. :sigh:
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Rakas21
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#56
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#56
Nevada caucus is currently underway with the results due between 9-12 our time. Sanders is expected to win by a larger margin than the first states but Buttigieg now looks likely to finish ahead of Biden in second (though the field is close for second place).

Warren is apparently now out of cash more or less so we could we’ll see her withdraw from the race if she gets another 4th.
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Rakas21
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#57
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#57
Sanders won the Nevada caucus with a larger than expected share of the vote. Biden came second with Buttigieg in third.

No candidates have as yet withdrawn.

The South Carolina Primary next friday currently looks like being won by Biden.
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DSilva
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#58
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#58
(Original post by Rakas21)
Sanders won the Nevada caucus with a larger than expected share of the vote. Biden came second with Buttigieg in third.

No candidates have as yet withdrawn.

The South Carolina Primary next friday currently looks like being won by Biden.
The Democratic primaries sort of mirror the Republican primaries of 2016. Lots of 'moderates' squabbling with each other over who is best to take on the frontrunner (Sanders) without really managing to dent his support.

The numbers for Sanders look good, as does national polling which generally shows him doing best v Trump out of any of the candidates.

A long way to go.
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Fullofsurprises
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#59
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#59
It's increasingly looking like Bernie Sanders is going to be the Democratic nominee. There was a chance that Bloomberg could have spent his way to a win, but that's diminishing by the day with revelation after revelation about the billionaire's bad attitudes and cynicism.

So the battle in November is almost certain to be Trump -vs- Sanders.

Pundits are split on Sanders' chances, but he is currently ahead of Trump in a number of the crucial battleground states that Trump had to win last time to narrowly beat Clinton in the electoral college. (Hillary won the popular vote).

A Sanders win in the election would represent a huge change for America, but he might have a Congress that would thwart his more left-leaning goals such as a NHS-style free health care system. Much would depend on the outcome of the Senate races across the country.

I can foresee a situation in which Sanders beats Trump, but Trump refuses to go, calling cheating and foreign manipulation (ironic given that's what got him elected) and attempting a coup using armed force. At that point, if successful, the United States would become a totalitarian fascist state, which appears to have been a Trump goal for some time.
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Rakas21
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#60
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#60
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It's increasingly looking like Bernie Sanders is going to be the Democratic nominee. There was a chance that Bloomberg could have spent his way to a win, but that's diminishing by the day with revelation after revelation about the billionaire's bad attitudes and cynicism.

So the battle in November is almost certain to be Trump -vs- Sanders.

Pundits are split on Sanders' chances, but he is currently ahead of Trump in a number of the crucial battleground states that Trump had to win last time to narrowly beat Clinton in the electoral college. (Hillary won the popular vote).

A Sanders win in the election would represent a huge change for America, but he might have a Congress that would thwart his more left-leaning goals such as a NHS-style free health care system. Much would depend on the outcome of the Senate races across the country.

I can foresee a situation in which Sanders beats Trump, but Trump refuses to go, calling cheating and foreign manipulation (ironic given that's what got him elected) and attempting a coup using armed force. At that point, if successful, the United States would become a totalitarian fascist state, which appears to have been a Trump goal for some time.
I’d not be so certain, Sanders is still forecast not to achieve the required delegate count. The establishment are not his fans and can and will rob him if they can.
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