What would happen if coronavirus became a pandemic?

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PTMalewski
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#21
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#21
(Original post by .N.A.)
It just became a pandemic...
And I bet more people will commit suicides when their businesses bankrupt due to panic and special regulations, than will die from the he disease.

Assuming the stats won't change from the state of the week ago, it is hundreds times more likely to be killed in a car accident than get infected by the Coronavirus (not to mention dying from it, which is also unlikely), and in Eastern Europe it is even thousands times more likely to be killed in in a car accident. Yet, nobody bans pedestrians from crossing the streets or sends drivers for driving technique training.
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Plagioclase
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(Original post by PTMalewski)
Assuming the stats won't change from the state of the week ago, it is hundreds times more likely to be killed in a car accident than get infected by the Coronavirus (not to mention dying from it, which is also unlikely), and in Eastern Europe it is even thousands times more likely to be killed in in a car accident. Yet, nobody bans pedestrians from crossing the streets or sends drivers for driving technique training.
Sorry but this is nonsense, do you not understand how exponential growth works? There were approximately 2,000 deaths from traffic accidents in the UK last year. At the time of writing, there are approximately 800 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK which, for reasons explained well in this article, means that there are almost certainly at least ~10,000 actual infected individuals in the UK at the moment. At this point it is essentially impossible to prevent the spread of the virus and indeed the official UK policy is now to allow the virus to spread (as slowly as possible) through the population to allow herd immunity. It is therefore almost certain that a significant proportion of the UK population will eventually become infected. So whilst this does not mean that anybody should be panicking, it completely and utterly wrong to claim that you're more likely to be killed in a car accident than get infected by coronavirus. Indeed, given that an average of 600 people die in the UK per year from ordinary flu and that the mortality rate from coronavirus is significantly higher than that of flu, it is a practical certainty that the death toll of coronavirus will eventually exceed 2,000 (which would require roughly 200,000 infections given current estimates of mortality rates, a completely reasonable figure to expect given that the policy our government has now adopted, see above).
Last edited by Plagioclase; 2 weeks ago
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PTMalewski
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(Original post by Plagioclase)
Sorry but this is nonsense, do you not understand how exponential growth works? There were approximately 2,000 deaths from traffic accidents in the UK last year. At the time of writing, there are approximately 800 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK which, for reasons explained well in this article, means that there are almost certainly at least ~10,000 actual infected individuals in the UK at the moment. At this point it is essentially impossible to prevent the spread of the virus and indeed the official UK policy is now to allow the virus to spread (as slowly as possible) through the population to allow herd immunity. It is therefore almost certain that a significant proportion of the UK population will eventually become infected. So whilst this does not mean that anybody should be panicking, it completely and utterly wrong to claim that you're more likely to be killed in a car accident than get infected by coronavirus. Indeed, given that an average of 600 people die in the UK per year from ordinary flu and that the mortality rate from coronavirus is significantly higher than that of flu, it is a practical certainty that the death toll of coronavirus will eventually exceed 2,000 (which would require roughly 200,000 infections given current estimates of mortality rates, a completely reasonable figure to expect given that the policy our government has now adopted, see above).
That is precisely why I've assumed it all doesn't matter. Any radical moves can only do more damage than anything. Who cares its exponential growth if the outcome is likely to be the same?
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Plagioclase
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(Original post by PTMalewski)
That is precisely why I've assumed it all doesn't matter. Any radical moves can only do more damage than anything. Who cares its exponential growth if the outcome is likely to be the same?
Spreading misinformation about coronavirus does matter, it is completely irresponsible. It is very important that people take action to reduce the rate of spread of the virus because of the growth is slowed, it will reduce the burden on the health system. The most dangerous possible situation is uncontrolled spread leading to the health system being overwhelmed - this would significantly increase the disease mortality. Even if the number of people who ultimately get infected is the same, the mortality rate will be much lower if cases are spread over a longer period.

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PTMalewski
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(Original post by Plagioclase)
Spreading misinformation about coronavirus does matter, it is completely irresponsible. It is very important that people take action to reduce the rate of spread of the virus because of the growth is slowed, it will reduce the burden on the health system. The most dangerous possible situation is uncontrolled spread leading to the health system being overwhelmed - this would significantly increase the disease mortality. Even if the number of people who ultimately get infected is the same, the mortality rate will be much lower if cases are spread over a longer period.

Spreading panic is not going to be good either. In some countries lots of businesses are already closed under governments' orders, which can cause a series of bankruptcies, and then even suicides, while the virus can spread freely while people are waiting in unusually long and crowded queues for checkouts in the supermarkets, because nobody is going to close shopping centers for obvious reasons and people are panicking and buying out all stuff there is like there was a war coming, so people are likely to get more infections than usual, as these places are many times more crowded than normally, not to mention cinemas in which typically there are only like ten people in a vast room, or swimming pools where nobody goes when he feels ill.
Last edited by PTMalewski; 2 weeks ago
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Plagioclase
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(Original post by PTMalewski)
Spreading panic is not going to be good either.
Yes, which is why I said...
(Original post by Plagioclase)
this does not mean that anybody should be panicking
It is possible to communicate information accurately and responsibly without causing panic.
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Misaela
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I don't think we should just look at how many people the flu has killed compared to the corona virus. I think we should also look at the time span they were killed in and how much they were trying to contain it. One of the best doctors the prophet of the latter day saints. Has warned us and given advice. Now if a prophet + high educated doctor who has had dealt with so many sicknesses during his years thinks this is serious why should we not take it seriously we don't have over 60 years of medical experience. The one that seems like it isn't harmful could be the deadliest. If a person who thinks the corona virus isn't that serious and a person who does were met with terrible circumstances of this virus. The one that was prepared would most likely survive. I can give you an example of how things can get worst. If a worker who has a corona virus coughs on the water supply of a country the whole country is doomed. meaning you need to have your own water supply in store. If no imports and exports from countries are allowed especially the ones that import will suffer. No food, no money, everyone will have no income. Okay let's say there are farmers and fishers. What if all the farmers and fishers have corona you can't buy their food anymore. So that means you'll already have to have food in store and plant yourself. Money will lose its value at one point. You cannot get the virus if even one drop got on your skin. And not all the patients will listen to their doctors advice. It's best to prepare for the worst then not to be prepared. Fact: we have been told for centuries by the prophets of the latter day saints to have a storage even if it's small. Even if they would be false prophets all of their visions up until now were accurate. So why not take their advice. The Holy spirit can work on every one. We just don't listen to the spirit. Even you can get advice from the spirit yourself but you have to believe be patient and listen. The minister of a country once had a feeling to close the airport due to the corona virus. But he was greedy for the money and listened to his friends so he opened it again and now the virus has gotten in this the country. If the minister had listened that country would still be corona free. God loves us and he is trying to protect us but we don't listen and if we don't listen we'll face the consequences. Just like a father warning his child not to go on the sand with out slippers because you could cut your feet. If the boy doesn't listen he will. So to everyone I hope you listen to what the holy spirit tells you.

Oh right before I forget please pray at all times.
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Napp
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(Original post by Misaela)
I don't think we should just look at how many people the flu has killed compared to the corona virus. I think we should also look at the time span they were killed in and how much they were trying to contain it. One of the best doctors the prophet of the latter day saints. Has warned us and given advice. Now if a prophet + high educated doctor who has had dealt with so many sicknesses during his years thinks this is serious why should we not take it seriously we don't have over 60 years of medical experience. The one that seems like it isn't harmful could be the deadliest. If a person who thinks the corona virus isn't that serious and a person who does were met with terrible circumstances of this virus. The one that was prepared would most likely survive. I can give you an example of how things can get worst. If a worker who has a corona virus coughs on the water supply of a country the whole country is doomed. meaning you need to have your own water supply in store. If no imports and exports from countries are allowed especially the ones that import will suffer. No food, no money, everyone will have no income. Okay let's say there are farmers and fishers. What if all the farmers and fishers have corona you can't buy their food anymore. So that means you'll already have to have food in store and plant yourself. Money will lose its value at one point. You cannot get the virus if even one drop got on your skin. And not all the patients will listen to their doctors advice. It's best to prepare for the worst then not to be prepared. Fact: we have been told for centuries by the prophets of the latter day saints to have a storage even if it's small. Even if they would be false prophets all of their visions up until now were accurate. So why not take their advice. The Holy spirit can work on every one. We just don't listen to the spirit. Even you can get advice from the spirit yourself but you have to believe be patient and listen. The minister of a country once had a feeling to close the airport due to the corona virus. But he was greedy for the money and listened to his friends so he opened it again and now the virus has gotten in this the country. If the minister had listened that country would still be corona free. God loves us and he is trying to protect us but we don't listen and if we don't listen we'll face the consequences. Just like a father warning his child not to go on the sand with out slippers because you could cut your feet. If the boy doesn't listen he will. So to everyone I hope you listen to what the holy spirit tells you.

Oh right before I forget please pray at all times.
Since when is a cult leader considered a reputable doctor?
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by Napp)
Since when is a cult leader considered a reputable doctor?
When you are a cultist.
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QE2
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We have to wash our pans for 20 seconds.
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angelike1
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(Original post by Misaela)
I don't think we should just look at how many people the flu has killed compared to the corona virus. I think we should also look at the time span they were killed in and how much they were trying to contain it. One of the best doctors the prophet of the latter day saints. Has warned us and given advice. Now if a prophet + high educated doctor who has had dealt with so many sicknesses during his years thinks this is serious why should we not take it seriously we don't have over 60 years of medical experience. The one that seems like it isn't harmful could be the deadliest. If a person who thinks the corona virus isn't that serious and a person who does were met with terrible circumstances of this virus. The one that was prepared would most likely survive. I can give you an example of how things can get worst. If a worker who has a corona virus coughs on the water supply of a country the whole country is doomed. meaning you need to have your own water supply in store. If no imports and exports from countries are allowed especially the ones that import will suffer. No food, no money, everyone will have no income. Okay let's say there are farmers and fishers. What if all the farmers and fishers have corona you can't buy their food anymore. So that means you'll already have to have food in store and plant yourself. Money will lose its value at one point. You cannot get the virus if even one drop got on your skin. And not all the patients will listen to their doctors advice. It's best to prepare for the worst then not to be prepared. Fact: we have been told for centuries by the prophets of the latter day saints to have a storage even if it's small. Even if they would be false prophets all of their visions up until now were accurate. So why not take their advice. The Holy spirit can work on every one. We just don't listen to the spirit. Even you can get advice from the spirit yourself but you have to believe be patient and listen. The minister of a country once had a feeling to close the airport due to the corona virus. But he was greedy for the money and listened to his friends so he opened it again and now the virus has gotten in this the country. If the minister had listened that country would still be corona free. God loves us and he is trying to protect us but we don't listen and if we don't listen we'll face the consequences. Just like a father warning his child not to go on the sand with out slippers because you could cut your feet. If the boy doesn't listen he will. So to everyone I hope you listen to what the holy spirit tells you.

Oh right before I forget please pray at all times.
Prayer doesn't work for infectious diseases tho. Just look at Africa.
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QE2
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(Original post by Plagioclase)
Spreading misinformation about coronavirus does matter, it is completely irresponsible. It is very important that people take action to reduce the rate of spread of the virus because of the growth is slowed, it will reduce the burden on the health system. The most dangerous possible situation is uncontrolled spread leading to the health system being overwhelmed - this would significantly increase the disease mortality. Even if the number of people who ultimately get infected is the same, the mortality rate will be much lower if cases are spread over a longer period.

I wonder if these graphs are deliberately inaccurate, or whether it is just coincidence. In reality, the difference between the two curves is much less pronounced.
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Karisa96
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I'm sure the country would go into complete lockdown, similar to what is happening in Italy.
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by Karisa96)
I'm sure the country would go into complete lockdown, similar to what is happening in Italy.
It is already a pandemic...
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Misaela
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(Original post by angelike1)
Prayer doesn't work for infectious diseases tho. Just look at Africa.
You pray and go and do. Go and do can mean a lot. Of course the diseases aren't going to stop how the prophesies from all the scriptures including the bible say that we will suffer before Christ comes. Preparing is just for safety because the corona is not the end of the world. If anything it's the first step.
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