Omg! this diseased is deadly. Watch

lynn19
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News about coronavirus outbreak is changing rapidly and it is not getting any better.
https://twitter.com/alexcarell17/sta...342623749?s=20
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by lynn19)
News about coronavirus outbreak is changing rapidly and it is not getting any better.
https://twitter.com/alexcarell17/sta...342623749?s=20
Most diseases are deadly. This one only kills 2% of those infected which is lower than SARS and about the same as the common flu. The media response is overblown and causing unnecessary panic.
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Em.-.
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While 20% are serious or critical, 80% of cases are mild remember. Stats: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Out of the cases with recorded outcomes 16% have died, 84% have recovered. Not sure where the 2% is coming from (probably comparing total cases with deaths). This death rate should decrease since recovery will take longer than time taken to die in most cases.
The main concern is not necessarily how “deadly” it is but if it infects the majority of the population, up to 20% could become quite seriously ill and it would disrupt our hospitals since there would be limited supplies.
Even if the death rate happened to drop as low as 2-3%, that could kill around 1 million people if nearly everyone in this country was infected. So it’s the disruption it could cause to society which alarms me most, not the risk to myself, as I said for 80% of people it’s like having a cold or the flu.
Last edited by Em.-.; 4 days ago
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Em.-.
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
Most diseases are deadly. This one only kills 2% of those infected which is lower than SARS and about the same as the common flu. The media response is overblown and causing unnecessary panic.
Common flu is more like <0.1%, but 2% is still relatively low (if the death out of cases with outcome rate drops to this). 80% of people get mild symptoms comparable to a cold or non-serious common flu, so there seems to be a bit too much panic with people thinking they’re definitely going to die if they get it.
Of deaths, if I remover correctly, 80% are over 60 and 75% have underlying conditions. Only a few young people in good health have died, a few of whom were doctors with large amounts of exposure to the virus.

Of course it would be wrong not to care about those who are vulnerable, but young healthy people don’t need to be too concerned about the danger to themselves.
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999tigger
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
Most diseases are deadly. This one only kills 2% of those infected which is lower than SARS and about the same as the common flu. The media response is overblown and causing unnecessary panic.
This is untrue, Sars was more deadly at about 10% but common flue is 0.05% according to cdc which makes this 40x more deadly, hence the struggle to keep it spreading. Also a lot more we dont know about the virus which is what is causing concern. Flu kills a lot more at the moment because its a known problem.
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999tigger
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(Original post by lynn19)
News about coronavirus outbreak is changing rapidly and it is not getting any better.
https://twitter.com/alexcarell17/sta...342623749?s=20
The name of the game is containment at the moment, the reason its spread so fast is because it wasnt known about hence it travelling within China. Considering how international travel works, then at the moment containment from other countries has been pretty good.
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Napp
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Still seems frightfully overblown right now. A disease that predominately kills the elderly and infirm isnt exactly very novel and given the fly kills hundreds of thousands a year this particular variation on the corona family of viruses seems rather a damp squib.
There are many things to be scared of in this world and, at present, this is certainly not one of them.
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by 999tigger)
This is untrue, Sars was more deadly at about 10% but common flue is 0.05% according to cdc which makes this 40x more deadly, hence the struggle to keep it spreading. Also a lot more we dont know about the virus which is what is causing concern. Flu kills a lot more at the moment because its a known problem.
Yes I’ve found the real flu figure now, I think I read a dodgy article.

Here are some ‘fun’ stats for anyone interested:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.h...ear%3famp=true
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nexttime
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(Original post by Napp)
Still seems frightfully overblown right now. A disease that predominately kills the elderly and infirm isnt exactly very novel and given the fly kills hundreds of thousands a year this particular variation on the corona family of viruses seems rather a damp squib.
There are many things to be scared of in this world and, at present, this is certainly not one of them.
Unsure if serious.

Even if we go with very conservative numbers, letting this virus just get transmitted unchecked through the UK would cause around a million deaths. Most disease kills the elderly - cancer is still a thing most people have heard of, kind of a big deal. But even if we just ignore those - plenty of healthy doctors have died, other young people. Maybe we'd see 50,000 deaths of young people? Getting very speculative now.

And can you imagine the cost, both in terms of healthcare (20% in serious or critical condition) but also lost labour, loss of order and general panic. I, for one, and quite grateful its China picking up the vast majority of the tab for now...

For comparison, Islamic terrorist attacks ~100 in the last 20 years in the UK.
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Reality Check
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(Original post by nexttime)
Unsure if serious.

Even if we go with very conservative numbers, letting this virus just get transmitted unchecked through the UK would cause around a million deaths. Most disease kills the elderly - cancer is still a thing most people have heard of, kind of a big deal. But even if we just ignore those - plenty of healthy doctors have died, other young people. Maybe we'd see 50,000 deaths of young people? Getting very speculative now.

And can you imagine the cost, both in terms of healthcare (20% in serious or critical condition) but also lost labour, loss of order and general panic. I, for one, and quite grateful its China picking up the vast majority of the tab for now...

For comparison, Islamic terrorist attacks ~100 in the last 20 years in the UK.
We forget how pampered and lucky we are now in the UK - sort of forgotten the concept of infectious disease being a major cause of mortality.
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Napp
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(Original post by nexttime)
Unsure if serious.

Even if we go with very conservative numbers, letting this virus just get transmitted unchecked through the UK would cause around a million deaths. Most disease kills the elderly - cancer is still a thing most people have heard of, kind of a big deal. But even if we just ignore those - plenty of healthy doctors have died, other young people. Maybe we'd see 50,000 deaths of young people? Getting very speculative now.

And can you imagine the cost, both in terms of healthcare (20% in serious or critical condition) but also lost labour, loss of order and general panic. I, for one, and quite grateful its China picking up the vast majority of the tab for now...

For comparison, Islamic terrorist attacks ~100 in the last 20 years in the UK.
I'm afraid im rather inclined to go with the governments figures on this. And no one ever said let it go around willy nilly (in which example a million is still a grossly inflated number) There was a rather good review on it in this weeks spectator.
As the report says, banning air travel would be an utterly useless (and self destructive) act as it would not stop the virus from reaching terra firma - as it already has. The best course of action is to rigorously root it out and stop its spread through quarantine and antivirals once it has arrived.
Mmm their approach is moderately dubious and the effectiveness is yet to be fully ascertained but props where props are due. However apropos the panic - you can happily lay the entirety of the blame at the media for scaremongering on the matter. By the standards of deadly viruses this one still does not even rank.. All this hand ringing about shutting the country down and turning it into an island fortress is little more than irresponsible scaremongering imo.

What has terrorism got to do with this?
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