Coronavirus Megathread: UK goes into full lockdown

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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
Really don’t understand why people are so against face masks.

They do not prevent the virus no, but they reduce the risk somewhat. That is sufficient justification for it.

Also, noticed today whilst doing my food shop that Lidl’s is all out of anti-bac gel due to a shortage from the supplier.

It’s only so long until mass hysteria kicks in.

Still hoping I can make my Japan trip in May
Face masks are moderately effective and they are useful in crowded public places.

Ordinary anti-bac soaps are of no value, one needs alcohol-based soaps to have any effect on the virus.
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by DiddyDec)
That says nothing about a death just a flight being cancelled.

Why are you lying again?
My bad, wrong sources

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-live-updates/
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
Thing is though, I don’t have any medical knowledge so correct me if I’m wrong. However surely by the time a vaccine/ anti-viral meds are released to the public the virus could have mutated and we’d be back to square one.
That does happen and the scientists who work on these things do a great deal of calculation and study to try to cater for 'upgrades' to the virus. This is true of all flu viruses.
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Fullofsurprises
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China's leadership knew about the virus but did nothing for a crucial 2-week period to alert the public - during that time, massive public gatherings were allowed to go ahead in Wuhan, accelerating the spread of the virus.
https://www.ft.com/content/3da73290-...1-482eed0038b1

Our own government appear to be following a similar path, at first downplaying the extent of the threat, making clumsy mistakes and now panicking.

The UK does not have anything like the medical resources required to treat the infected as this grows to become a pandemic.
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Waldorf67
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
China's leadership knew about the virus but did nothing for a crucial 2-week period to alert the public - during that time, massive public gatherings were allowed to go ahead in Wuhan, accelerating the spread of the virus.
https://www.ft.com/content/3da73290-...1-482eed0038b1

Our own government appear to be following a similar path, at first downplaying the extent of the threat, making clumsy mistakes and now panicking.

The UK does not have anything like the medical resources required to treat the infected as this grows to become a pandemic.
But even so less than 1% of Wuhun contracted the virus. So the Chinese government must have done something right.

Agreed about our government though. How can the NHS remotely deal with this considering it’s already at bursting point.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
But even so less than 1% of Wuhun contracted the virus. So the Chinese government must have done something right.

Agreed about our government though. How can the NHS remotely deal with this considering it’s already at bursting point.
The inability of the Chinese government to address it until they couldn't avoid publicly addressing it has caused it to spread globally, as the characteristics of the Covid-19 include a prolonged period of infectability without symptoms. That's hardly 'doing something right'. It's a case of extremely stupid and damaging misapplication of face saving and political paranoia run amok with highly damaging consequences. I can't even imagine how we're going to have a 'normal' relationship with the Chinese government once the dust settles and their arrogance and stupidity have caused tens of millions of deaths globally, or even hundreds of millions.

The pandemic is going to expose the ghastly nature of a country where the interests of hedge fund managers and offshored Tory donors are prioritised above the wellbeing and health of much of the country.
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Waldorf67
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The inability of the Chinese government to address it until they couldn't avoid publicly addressing it has caused it to spread globally, as the characteristics of the Covid-19 include a prolonged period of infectability without symptoms. That's hardly 'doing something right'. It's a case of extremely stupid and damaging misapplication of face saving and political paranoia run amok with highly damaging consequences. I can't even imagine how we're going to have a 'normal' relationship with the Chinese government once the dust settles and their arrogance and stupidity have caused tens of millions of deaths globally, or even hundreds of millions.

The pandemic is going to expose the ghastly nature of a country where the interests of hedge fund managers and offshored Tory donors are prioritised above the wellbeing and health of much of the country.
The virus is already stabilising in one of the world’s most densely populated countries, according to reports.

The death toll is below 80,000 for a population of 1.4 billion. If the virus stabilises in China, why should they be held accountable for the deaths of tens to hundreds of millions outside of China?

To me that would instead indicate that other countries had grossly failed to control the virus as China has done. I would argree with your argument if China was severely struggling to get to grips with the virus, but in my eyes their response was pretty effective.

That is pending (and praying a little) that the reports of the virus stabilising holds true.
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
The virus is already stabilising in one of the world’s most densely populated countries, according to reports.

The death toll is below 80,000 for a population of 1.4 billion. If the virus stabilises in China, why should they be held accountable for the deaths of tens to hundreds of millions outside of China?

To me that would instead indicate that other countries had grossly failed to control the virus as China has done. I would argree with your argument if China was severely struggling to get to grips with the virus, but in my eyes their response was pretty effective.

That is pending (and praying a little) that the reports of the virus stabilising holds true.
So be more like China? Get your welder out because we have buildings to weld up.
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QE2
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
What a simply bizarre conspiracy theory. Why would China destroy their own economy with quarantine measures if they actually wanted the virus to spread?
To deflect suspicion, obvs.
And notice how they waited until the virus had spread sufficiently before implementing "preventative measures"?
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
The virus is already stabilising in one of the world’s most densely populated countries, according to reports.

The death toll is below 80,000 for a population of 1.4 billion. If the virus stabilises in China, why should they be held accountable for the deaths of tens to hundreds of millions outside of China?

To me that would instead indicate that other countries had grossly failed to control the virus as China has done. I would argree with your argument if China was severely struggling to get to grips with the virus, but in my eyes their response was pretty effective.

That is pending (and praying a little) that the reports of the virus stabilising holds true.
We don't know what the true picture is - a country like China run by a lying, twisted authoritarian regime that allows the selective murder of prisoners for their organs and imprisons millions for their religion is hardly a trusted source. What we do know is that the virus is now active all over China and what seems to be a downward curve may only be temporary. Many viral pandemics go through stages of temporary retreat and then wild expansion.
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Fullofsurprises
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Just a brief diversion to give some information I've gleaned from various authoritative sources about some things to prepare if you think you might be vulnerable to the harmful effects of the virus.

Age/Sex
Older age groups over 60 are more vulnerable. Men are more vulnerable than women. Having said that, some quite young people have had severe experiences with the virus.

Here is the current mortality by age table based on WHO data from Feb 28th.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Prior medical conditions
People with diabetes, heart conditions, weakened immunity and respiratory conditions are all much more vulnerable.

Home treatments
If you have fever, you may have the virus. Using Ibuprofen may work against the fever. The body needs water and vitamins/minerals - hospitals are giving magnesium and potassium supplements. Drink lots of fluid. Wash regularly, clean surfaces. Use an alcohol-based hand wash or strong soap. Bleaching surfaces will have an effect provided the bleach is left in place for some time. Bleaching home utensils will be useful. Rinse thoroughly after bleaching. Antibiotic soaps are of no value.
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Waldorf67
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Just a brief diversion to give some information I've gleaned from various authoritative sources about some things to prepare if you think you might be vulnerable to the harmful effects of the virus.

Age/Sex
Older age groups over 60 are more vulnerable. Men are more vulnerable than women. Having said that, some quite young people have had severe experiences with the virus.

Here is the current mortality by age table based on WHO data from Feb 28th.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Prior medical conditions
People with diabetes, heart conditions, weakened immunity and respiratory conditions are all much more vulnerable.

Home treatments
If you have fever, you may have the virus. Using Ibuprofen may work against the fever. The body needs water and vitamins/minerals - hospitals are giving magnesium and potassium supplements. Drink lots of fluid. Wash regularly, clean surfaces. Use an alcohol-based hand wash or strong soap. Bleaching surfaces will have an effect provided the bleach is left in place for some time. Bleaching home utensils will be useful. Rinse thoroughly after bleaching. Antibiotic soaps are of no value.
In regards to the gender stat. Approx half of the male population in China smoke, whereas I believe less than 5% of females do. That is probably a significant explanatory factor, more than sex itself.
Last edited by Waldorf67; 1 month ago
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Waldorf67
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
We don't know what the true picture is - a country like China run by a lying, twisted authoritarian regime that allows the selective murder of prisoners for their organs and imprisons millions for their religion is hardly a trusted source. What we do know is that the virus is now active all over China and what seems to be a downward curve may only be temporary. Many viral pandemics go through stages of temporary retreat and then wild expansion.
Very pessimistic! I think China recognises the need to work with us as opposed to against us on this. It is in their interest as well as ours.

Maybe I’m just naive
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Frafiglio
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
ITALY - In Lombardy, hospitals are close to collapse. Beds are running out, especially in ICU; meanwhile, readily available health professionals are on high demand.

This is the thread for all coronavirus discussions, in order to avoid cluttering the forum with 100+ different coronavirus updates.

I will update the OP with news as it comes in, with the thread title updated to the latest big news.

Why should you be concerned? Isn't it less bad than the flu?
Spoiler:
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1. The virulence (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 1.4-6.49, with a mean estimate of 3.28[1] . This mean estimate is much higher than the seasonal flu, which has an R0 of 1.3[2] . What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 spreads signficantly faster than the seasonal flu.

2. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is at least 2-3%[3] . This is 20-30 times higher than the CFR of the season flu, which is around .1%[4] .

3. SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms[5] . This makes it much more difficult to control.

4. Roughly 20% of SARS-CoV-2 infections result in serious symptoms that require medical intervention[6] . This is more than 10 times the hospitalization rate of the seasonal flu[7].

5. Symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 can persist over a month[8] compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days[9] .

6. There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2[10] whereas people regularly get annual flu shots.

7. There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 which means that it can theoretically infect the entire population. *See*, for example, a Korean psychiatric department where the virus infected 99/102 people.


Now, consider the multiplicative effect that all of these attributes have for the virus. Compared to the seasonal flu, SARS-CoV-2 (1) spreads faster; (2) kills far more; (3) is harder to control; (4) requires use of far more medical resources; (5) for far longer a period of time; (6) has no effective treatment; and (7) can infect entire populations.

These factors mean that SARS-CoV-2, if left unchecked, is far more likely to overwhelm a country's medical infrastructure. Additionally, when medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the CFR will skyrocket because we know that 20% of cases require medical intervention.

This virus is potentially devastating if containment measures fail. Far worse than the seasonal flu.

See the WHO ground team report


Where did this come from?
Spoiler:
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The first coronavirus case was reported to the WHO on December 31, and the outbreak was initially linked to Wuhan’s Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market - the cause of many racist "memes" about Chinese.

However, the first few infections were found to beunrelated to the market. A new study published by a team of Chinese scientists last week said the virus might have been imported from somewhere else.

It is speculated that the infection could have been caused by a researcher being bitten by a bat. Some more possible but less likely explanations include the virus being a bioweapon spread by the Americans in order to punish China and Iran.


Where has it spread?
Spoiler:
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The virus has been contained in China, however outside China it is spreading as a pandemic.


What are governments doing about it?
Spoiler:
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China, where the first cases were noticed, very quickly put cities into lockdown. The local government of Wuhan/Hubei was incompetent and allowed the virus to spread, and the central government of China stepped in to restore order and crack down on the virus. New infections are now decreasing, and China is returning to normalcy.

Much of the rest of the world restricted travel to and from China, but this did not stop the virus from spreading to them.

The US sent out malfunctioning test kits, and consequently has only tested 450 people so far (as of 26 Feb 2020). Hawaii has even gone so far as to request permission to test people using Japanese test kits, as they cannot afford to wait until mid-March to receive results back.

Europe

The UK has tested 9000 people and found 9 infections, mostly in Brighton. They have set up drive-thru test facilities in order to reduce the exposure of medical workers. Home tests are being piloted by the NHS for the same reason.

Italy has placed towns of 50,000 people into lockdown

Switzerland has banned events with more than 1,000 people
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/coronavi...eople/45585378

How do I know if I have it?
Spoiler:
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Only through a lab test or clinical diagnosis.

According to the WHO ground team report:
The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

The early and mild symptoms are indistinguishable to those of the flu, and if you experience them you are still likely to just have caught the regular flu. Only a lab test can diagnose mild cases, while more severe cases can be determined clinically (with scans of fluid in the lungs). Without these, the biggest hint that it is not the regular flu would be if your condition rapidly deteriorates.

Some countries such as China and South Korea are now testing anyone with flu symptoms; however, this is not yet rolled out in the UK, and notably some countries such as Norway and the US have refused to test even severe cases of flu symptoms of people returning from covid-19 epicentres (such as northern Italy and South Korea) until recently.


Events in week 13
Sun 1 March
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Hospitals "close to collapse" in Lombardy, Italy
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cron...-202002a.shtml

Milan Doctor: "clinical picture does not suggest that the infections are recent. The virus was already circulating before the end of January"
“Those who have tried to instill tranquility, and I understand them, have not considered the potential of this virus. In 42 years of profession I have never seen an influenza capable of upsetting the activity of the infectious disease wards. The situation is frankly emergency from the point of view of the health organization."
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_...51361796.shtml

Newly Completed Genomic study strongly suggests that there has been cryptic (undetected) transmission in Washington State (where 1st known case has died) for the past 6 weeks
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...318503426.html

12 more patients in England test positive, taking UK total to 35
There are now 2 confirmed cases with no travel history - one in Essex confirmed today and one in Surrey confirmed yesterday
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51697991

American Airlines flight to Milan cancelled as crew refused to board
https://www.news1.news/2020/03/coron...-new-york.html

First deaths in US, Thailand and Australia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

US Surgeon General urges Americans not to buy masks, to reserve them for emergency workers, as federal reserves (30 million N95 masks) are insufficient for expected demand (300 million).
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...ace-masks.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...rus-2020-01-30
- but I want to point out that their claim that "the virus is not spreading in the general community" is false: most new cases cannot be traced back to other known cases, which indicates precisely community spreading.

Fri 28 Feb
Spoiler:
Show
New York City mayor DeBlasio has repeatedly requested permission from federal authorities to conduct tests locally developed, rather than wait weeks for the CDC to send out functioning test kits. He claims nobody in federal govt has responded to >3 weeks of requests.
https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/s...838862854?s=21

Switzerland bans events with more than 1,000 people
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/coronavi...eople/45585378

Record losses totalling $5 trillion in financial markets as coronavirus fears wipe out the last 2 years of gains
Japanese island declares state of emergency
Coronavirus sweeps across Iranian government including health minister and vice president
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-live-updates/

Germany quarantines 1,000 as coronavirus cases push past 50 (including an employee at a university clinic)
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...h-past-50.html

Thurs 27 Feb
Spoiler:
Show

U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...leblower-says/

France braces for ‘epidemic’ as cases double in a day to 38
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/euro...-uk-record-new

Trump says US risk 'very low' as Australian PM warns pandemic is 'upon us'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...emergency-plan

New infections in South Korea (505) now outnumber those in China (433).
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...ed-china-which

Mike Pence is being put in charge of the coronavirus containment effort. When Mike Pence was governor of Indiana, his decisions led to an outbreak of HIV infections.

US Health Secretary says coronavirus vaccine may not be affordable to everyone
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9362226.html


Events in week 12
Spoiler:
Show

Sat 22 Feb
Passengers test positive despite release from Japan quarantine
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6366308

Thurs 20 Feb
Expert criticises "completely inadequate" quarantine measures taken by Japan on ship, as many Japanese health officials begin to get infected
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6360872


Events in week 11
Spoiler:
Show

Sat 15 Feb
Japan declares state of local epidemics
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/videon...00321-nnn-soci

Tues 11 Feb
S. Korea advises against travel to Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, and others
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6357894


Events in week 9
Weds 29 Jan
Spoiler:
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Coronavirus spreading anti-China racism
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/sho....php?t=6333652
I’m Italian, from Emilia-Romagna, from a city that is almost border line with Lombardy. The situation is not as critical as you think.
We keep working nonstop and try to avoid the contacts with everyone.
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Waldorf67
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(Original post by DiddyDec)
So be more like China? Get your welder out because we have buildings to weld up.
Don’t believe all the rubbish in the tabloids.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
In regards to the gender stat. Approx half of the male population in China smoke, whereas I believe less than 5% of females do. That is probably a significant explanatory factor, more than sex itself.
Yes, we don't have a 'western death rate' table yet, although we probably soon will have. The data is helpful up to a point. Clearly everyone needs to wash their hands, use tissues and be careful in public places and not go out if running a fever and coughing.

EDIT
The ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) are now publishing country-by-country data updates and continental data.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geogra...019-ncov-cases
Last edited by Fullofsurprises; 1 month ago
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by Frafiglio)
I’m Italian, from Emilia-Romagna, from a city that is almost border line with Lombardy. The situation is not as critical as you think.
We keep working nonstop and try to avoid the contacts with everyone.
I don't think it is critical, yet. It will be a couple of weeks or so before that region reaches the level Wuhan was before its lockdown.

How easy is it to find masks (proper respirators such as N95/KN95/FFP2, not just surgical) where you live?
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Captain Haddock
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This is nuts... Christian cultists in South Korea have been busy deliberately spreading the virus. It's believed that almost all new cases in the country are either cultists themselves, or traceable to them. SK is up to 3,730 cases as of today.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27...vatives-china/
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by Waldorf67)
Don’t believe all the rubbish in the tabloids.
That isn't the tabloids, that the lengths that they go to.

It is the modern day plague house.

So is that the measures you wish us to use?
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Frafiglio
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
I don't think it is critical, yet. It will be a couple of weeks or so before that region reaches the level Wuhan was before its lockdown.

How easy is it to find masks (proper respirators such as N95/KN95/FFP2, not just surgical) where you live?
Actually there are none, where I live there is no more masks, gel for hands and supermarkets are almost empty all the time...
Plus, universities, bars, clubs, theatres, cinemas are closed, the close thing started last Monday and it’ll last till the 8th of March, if everything goes the right way...
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