From the current infection rate tables, it appears that on average, cases are doubling every 2 days.

I ran that on a spreadsheet and it would appear that the virus will peak in the UK on 13 April with about 2/3 of the population infected.

Your right - it followed a similar pattern in China, with similar mass predictions that were seemingly coming true. There was even a reddit post tracking the numbers against a simple doubling formula, which was proving accurate until they locked things down. Lets hope we can do the same.

Reply 791

NomDeiX

7

Original post by MeghanMarkle1992

Italy seems to be taking it seriously. Yet a massive proportion of those with coronavirus have died.

well the situation in Italy is different than in China or in any other place, the average death age is 81. It is because Italy has one of the oldest population in Europe.
*edit: average death age from the corona only

Reply 792

Ciel.

21

Original post by Agent78600

stay at home ;-;

i don't really go out much, but my bf does, so meh : <

Reply 793

fallen_acorns

20

Original post by MeghanMarkle1992

Why are there so many more deaths from this in Europe than in China?

older populations is part of the picture.. but I am willing to bet that a part of it is to do with scale.

Put it this way, Hubei (china's equivalent of Italy) has a population 60 million.. Italy has a population of 60 million.. pretty much the same.

It would be fair to say that Italy has better healthcare provision than Hubei.. so you would expect their fatality to be less. But with this virus, its not really about quality of hospital care, its more about sheer numbers and capacity. The virus overloads healthcare systems that simply don't have thousands of free beds and surplus doctors/nurses to spare.

Well in China's case, around Hubei there is a country of 1.3bn people. So what they did was ship in tons of medical workers, supplies and machines into Hubei to rapidly increase their capacity.. and even then it was a struggle to cope, as the reports of the doctors/nurses inside show. They also have the entire nations economy (20x bigger than hubei) to use when it comes to building new hospitals and increasing production.

But Italy? All it has, is all it has. There is no larger pool of medical workers/doctors/resources to call from. The EU will help a bit, but it has its own problems and doesn't act as one country like China does. The best Italy can hope for is access to an EU fund, and a bit of aid/support.. but not on anywhere near the same scale as China gave hubei.

That should also be a warning for us.. we are in the same potential shoes as Italy.

Reply 794

NJA

20

Original post by DiddyDec

Stop listening to rumours.

Unless it's Rumours

Reply 795

fallen_acorns

20

Good to see the BBC talking a bit more about spain.. another 700 for them today. Spain is increasing faster than Italy was at the same point.

Germany and France continue to provide the positive news though. They seem like the two nations that are holding the hope that you can actually just slow down the spread without a huge uncontrollable outbreak starting.. both are rising, but gradually.

Reply 796

fallen_acorns

20

Honestly though, Europe needs a mass shutdown - as soon as possible.

Europe is now seeing more cases a day than China was at the absolute peak of its crisis... and yet its doing far less.

I get that EU govermenets think they can beat this without taking the same measures as China, but I am doubtful looking at Italy and Spain. Lock up now for a month or two, and it can all be over soon.

Reply 797

username4986690

19

Original post by fallen_acorns

Honestly though, Europe needs a mass shutdown - as soon as possible.

Europe is now seeing more cases a day than China was at the absolute peak of its crisis... and yet its doing far less.

I get that EU govermenets think they can beat this without taking the same measures as China, but I am doubtful looking at Italy and Spain. Lock up now for a month or two, and it can all be over soon.