Fears of global recession as share prices fall

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CatusStarbright
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Investors are beginning to panic in the wake of the coronavirus, with the FTSE 100 index down 3.14%, suffering one of its biggest falls since the financial crash in 2008, the BBC reports. The Dow Jones index is down 2.6%.

According to the article:
"The S&P 500 fell about 1.2% on Friday, while the Nasdaq was about 0.5% lower.

The worries also hit the main European share indexes, sending Germany's Dax index down 4.2% and France's Cac 40 index down 3.9%.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped 3.7%, bringing its fall for the week to more than 9%. China's Shanghai Composite index also fell 3.7% on Friday."

Meanwhile, Dettol and other hygiene products are benefiting from the outbreak, and retailers seem to be turning to British businesses to plug the gaps in their supply chains caused by the virus.

It's interesting how what is merely a more deadly version of the flu is having such a large, global impact on the economy.
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
It's interesting how what is merely a more deadly version of the flu is having such a large, global impact on the economy.
First of all it isn't merely a strain of the flu, it is a far more virulent but less deadly strain of SARS, a completely different family of things to influenza.

Ask yourself how the economy would suffer if seasonal flu was 20x as serious and came in one large wave rather than the usual slow spread.

An economy can't run if 20% of people require hospitalization at once. Hence quarantine measures are necessary, just to slow the course of the virus so infections don't occur suddenly but are more spread out. Hence economic pain from quarantine measures.
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
First of all it isn't merely a strain of the flu, it is a far more virulent but less deadly strain of SARS, a completely different family of things to influenza.

Ask yourself how the economy would suffer if seasonal flu was 20x as serious and came in one large wave rather than the usual slow spread.

An economy can't run if 20% of people require hospitalization at once. Hence quarantine measures are necessary, just to slow the course of the virus so infections don't occur suddenly but are more spread out. Hence economic pain from quarantine measures.
I didn’t say it was a strain of the flu 🙂

It is a slow spread - we don’t have as many cases as flu, admittedly because prevention measures are in place (but that’s the point!).

It’s still a tad bizarre. The measures are working, no need to panic.
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
It’s still a tad bizarre. The measures are working, no need to panic.
They are working in China (at great economic cost - hence recession fears).

But they are not working in Italy, South Korea, or Japan - hence pandemic fears.
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Napp
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
They are working in China (at great economic cost - hence recession fears).

But they are not working in Italy, South Korea, or Japan - hence pandemic fears.
Obviously not or it wouldnt be in Italy, ROK or Japan...
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by Napp)
Obviously not or it wouldnt be in Italy, ROK or Japan...
It spread many weeks ago, before measures were taken. The Wuhan lockdown only started a month ago, remember. Since then, cases in China (and cases exported from China) have gradually stabilized and are now declining.
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Napp
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
It spread many weeks ago, before measures were taken. The Wuhan lockdown only started a month ago, remember. Since then, cases in China (and cases exported from China) have gradually stabilized and are now declining.
The phrase 'too little, too late' springs to mind.
According to Chairman Xi at any rate, and we all know how much his word on the matter is worth.
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by Napp)
The phrase 'too little, too late' springs to mind.
According to Chairman Xi at any rate, and we all know how much his word on the matter is worth.
Italy reports 233 new cases of coronavirus and 4 new deaths, raising total to 888 cases and 21 deaths

Exactly 5 weeks ago, on January 24th:
China had 830 reported cases and 26 deaths
Wuhan had been in lockdown for 1 day.

Italy has exported the virus to about as many countries as China had by then. Why aren't you condemning them too? The answer is that infection spread is very difficult to avoid, especially in the early stages when little is known about the virus.

The difference is that China has taken (drastic) action to stop the spread. Will Italy follow? Does Italy have the moral strength to take the extreme measures China has?
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Ciel.
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
Italy reports 233 new cases of coronavirus and 4 new deaths, raising total to 888 cases and 21 deaths

Exactly 5 weeks ago, on January 24th:
China had 830 reported cases and 26 deaths
Wuhan had been in lockdown for 1 day.

Italy has exported the virus to about as many countries as China had by then. Why aren't you condemning them too? The answer is that infection spread is very difficult to avoid, especially in the early stages when little is known about the virus.

The difference is that China has taken (drastic) action to stop the spread. Will Italy follow? Does Italy have the moral strength to take the extreme measures China has?
you should move there. i think that would make you very happy.
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Napp
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
Italy reports 233 new cases of coronavirus and 4 new deaths, raising total to 888 cases and 21 deaths

Exactly 5 weeks ago, on January 24th:
China had 830 reported cases and 26 deaths
Wuhan had been in lockdown for 1 day.

Italy has exported the virus to about as many countries as China had by then. Why aren't you condemning them too? The answer is that infection spread is very difficult to avoid, especially in the early stages when little is known about the virus.

The difference is that China has taken (drastic) action to stop the spread. Will Italy follow? Does Italy have the moral strength to take the extreme measures China has?
Because we're talking about China not Italy? One would have thought that was blindingly obvious.
At any rate this tactic of whataboutery is simply fallacious.
I don't deny that, what i do deny is that China should be afforded any 'props', as it were, for its lacklustre response to a problem of its own making. Just as I wouldnt give any coudos to a biologist who released smallpox and then did a half arsed job of trying to contain it before throwing his hands up on the matter.
No, because Italy isn't a dictatorship?
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Ascend
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
It spread many weeks ago, before measures were taken.
So you could say that China has a "blood price"?


(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
Japan's mismanagement of quarantine procedures has a blood price.
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Andrew97
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I was chatting to sowmbldy yesterday and they were telling me that their shares are worth £6000 less than the start of the year, crazy.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
Italy reports 233 new cases of coronavirus and 4 new deaths, raising total to 888 cases and 21 deaths

Exactly 5 weeks ago, on January 24th:
China had 830 reported cases and 26 deaths
Wuhan had been in lockdown for 1 day.

Italy has exported the virus to about as many countries as China had by then. Why aren't you condemning them too? The answer is that infection spread is very difficult to avoid, especially in the early stages when little is known about the virus.

The difference is that China has taken (drastic) action to stop the spread. Will Italy follow? Does Italy have the moral strength to take the extreme measures China has?
Things in Italy are bad but not as bad as you say now they have locked down the area the cases originated albeit they have exported a lot due to free movement.

Japan is actually not adding many new cases so they seem to have a grip.

China’s reduction in new cases when smoothed has been quite impressive.

South Korea seems to be losing control of the spread but its death rate is very low which suggests the care once identified is perfect.

The main worry should be Iran. It’s a deprived state led by theocrats without first world healthcare.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
Investors are beginning to panic in the wake of the coronavirus, with the FTSE 100 index down 3.14%, suffering one of its biggest falls since the financial crash in 2008, the BBC reports. The Dow Jones index is down 2.6%.

According to the article:
"The S&P 500 fell about 1.2% on Friday, while the Nasdaq was about 0.5% lower.

The worries also hit the main European share indexes, sending Germany's Dax index down 4.2% and France's Cac 40 index down 3.9%.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped 3.7%, bringing its fall for the week to more than 9%. China's Shanghai Composite index also fell 3.7% on Friday."

Meanwhile, Dettol and other hygiene products are benefiting from the outbreak, and retailers seem to be turning to British businesses to plug the gaps in their supply chains caused by the virus.

It's interesting how what is merely a more deadly version of the flu is having such a large, global impact on the economy.
Worth saying that it’s hit a time when growth in the Eurozone is already weak and where most economists and banks did not believe Chinese growth was anywhere near 6%.
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AngeryPenguin
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South Korean woman tests positive for virus after being declared "recovered"
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200228009700320

This follows such cases in Japan (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...s-reinfection/) and China (https://www.thailandmedical.news/new...ausing-concern).

These headlines are misleading, as experts are more inclined to believe that the virus simply lays dormant and hides from the immune system (like HIV) rather than a reinfection occurring.

(Original post by Rakas21)
South Korea seems to be losing control of the spread but its death rate is very low which suggests the care once identified is perfect.
17 deaths and 22 recoveries, isn't it? The death rate is "low" atm only because it has barely been two weeks, and it usually takes longer to die.
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
It spread many weeks ago, before measures were taken. The Wuhan lockdown only started a month ago, remember. Since then, cases in China (and cases exported from China) have gradually stabilized and are now declining.
Which you'd think would be reassuring to investors, but apparently not. I suppose when it hits the western world it suddenly becomes more real for us over here.
(Original post by Rakas21)
Worth saying that it’s hit a time when growth in the Eurozone is already weak and where most economists and banks did not believe Chinese growth was anywhere near 6%.
Indeed, there have been signs of economic decline for a little while now.
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Realitysreflexx
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Equity markets were pricing in irrational growth, it's simply rebalancing, remember folks the stock market is a prediction of the future. Companies aren't able to give guidance due to corona...if a firm gives bad guidance you can't estimate or benchmark it. Equities fall.

Finally, what really needs to be looked at by China is food standards. This all originated from consumption of wild animal's that shouldn't be consumed by humans. Seems to be something no one is talking about.
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AngeryPenguin
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(Original post by CatusStarbright)
Which you'd think would be reassuring to investors, but apparently not. I suppose when it hits the western world it suddenly becomes more real for us over here.
The West is utterly incapable of implementing the extreme measures China has taken. If it spreads in the West, there'll be more fallout.

Already a higher % of South Korean population has been infected compared to Chinese population, and their epidemic is nowhere near stabilizing for the reason I just mentioned.
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CatusStarbright
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(Original post by AngeryPenguin)
The West is utterly incapable of implementing the extreme measures China has taken. If it spreads in the West, there'll be more fallout.

Already a higher % of South Korean population has been infected compared to Chinese population, and their epidemic is nowhere near stabilizing for the reason I just mentioned.
Well of course authoritarian regimes are best placed to handle outbreaks.
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