Anonos
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Mod Edit: For advice, guidance and up-to-date information on Coronavirus/COVID-19, please check out the NHS and UK Government web-pages.

Do you think we will have an outbreak in the uk?

as of now i believe 35 people have tested positive for it which due to the long incubation period means there is maybe hundreds already infected (complete guess, i have no idea) and from there id imagine it would easily spread to thousands in the coming months

(i am aware that its very rarely deadly to those of good health/strong immune system)
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Em.-.
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Yes I think we will have an outbreak (I’d say outbreak when there’s 100+ cases caught in the U.K.). The problem is 20% of cases are serious or critical so if too many get it there won’t be enough resources so the death rate will start to increase towards this number.
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Pharyngotympanic
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I would be very surprised if we didn't. It's very contagious and people seem to have poor standards of basic hygeine and common sense in this country.
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999tigger
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(Original post by Anonos)
Do you think we will have an outbreak in the uk?

as of now i believe 35 people have tested positive for it which due to the long incubation period means there is maybe hundreds already infected (complete guess, i have no idea) and from there id imagine it would easily spread to thousands in the coming months

(i am aware that its very rarely deadly to those of good health/strong immune system)
Yes, because we already have one of sorts, hopefully we can contain it. Unusual situation.
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ColinDent
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It's the same as the SARS outbreak a few years ago, the media love to sensationalise stuff but in reality this is just a new strain of influenza, which already kills on average 600 people a year in the UK and, in the case of 2008/09 ( not the SARS year) over 13000

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

I'm afraid it's just part of life.
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MrBiggs01010101
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(Original post by Anonos)
Do you think we will have an outbreak in the uk?

as of now i believe 35 people have tested positive for it which due to the long incubation period means there is maybe hundreds already infected (complete guess, i have no idea) and from there id imagine it would easily spread to thousands in the coming months

(i am aware that its very rarely deadly to those of good health/strong immune system)
An outbreak is almost a certainty at this point. The question is: To what extent will the virus affect the UK?

It could be a few thousand cases but according to the government, could be has high as 60% of the population.

I myself have a weakened immune system, since birth... If I get it, there's very little hope for me...
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ColinDent
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Oh and one other thing whilst we're on the subject, it's entirely up to you as an individual but you see these adverts on this page for facemasks, total waste of time.
As others have said on here it's about personal hygiene, ensure you wash your hands thoroughly or use a sanatiser before putting anything near your mouth.
Those masks will not do enough to stop anyone becoming infected.
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lotusberry
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(Original post by MrBiggs01010101)
An outbreak is almost a certainty at this point. The question is: To what extent will the virus affect the UK?

It could be a few thousand cases but according to the government, could be has high as 60% of the population.

I myself have a weakened immune system, since birth... If I get it, there's very little hope for me...
My friend is in the same boat, she has CF and is at risk. It didn't help there was a virus scare at a school she visits for one of her lessons. I can't imagine how hard it is to go through medical hell and also have to worry about a life threatening virus. Please stay safe and isolate yourself if needed
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Em.-.
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(Original post by ColinDent)
It's the same as the SARS outbreak a few years ago, the media love to sensationalise stuff but in reality this is just a new strain of influenza, which already kills on average 600 people a year in the UK and, in the case of 2008/09 ( not the SARS year) over 13000

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

I'm afraid it's just part of life.
If this infects as many people as the flu does it will kill much more. The new virus is also more infectious remember. 20% of cases are serious or critical, and the death rate is 3% atm (the common flu is <0.05%), but if you compare recoveries with deaths it’s 7%.

The 20% being serious is key, as if too many get infected we won’t be able to treat most of them so the death rate will start to tend towards this number.

It is much worse than the flu and the swine flu (from 2009) which only had a death rate of 0.02% or something. SARS was much less infectious (also globalisation was less of a thing), it only infected 8,000 people in over a year, this has done 10x that in a few months.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Em.-.)
If this infects as many people as the flu does it will kill much more. The new virus is also more infectious remember. 20% of cases are serious or critical, and the death rate is 3% atm (the common flu is <0.05%), but if you compare recoveries with deaths it’s 7%.

The 20% being serious is key, as if too many get infected we won’t be able to treat most of them so the death rate will start to tend towards this number.

It is much worse than the flu and the swine flu (from 2009) which only had a death rate of 0.02% or something. SARS was much less infectious (also globalisation was less of a thing), it only infected 8,000 people in over a year, this has done 10x that in a few months.
So we have a choice, we can lock ourselves away and **** ourselves or we can get on with our lives.
I heard a medical expert on the radio saying that for most the symptoms are not that bad at all, now just how many people have been infected is in no way provable but there will undoubtedly be a very large amount of people that have had the virus and not even realised it so I would argue that the 3% figure is questionable.
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ZAK_ZAK122
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Hope you're all well,

Basically, coronavirus is sort of spreading like crazy in the uk and government officials are saying schools may have to close down, like bloody hell this is SERIOUS!!!

Professionals actually say the actual amount of coronavirus victims for real are 10 times the amount broadcasted, essentially meaning there are over 100 cases in the UK and with public transport at its most popular option here in London, the spread could happen rather easily!

A few days ago there were only 10 something cases, now that's jumped to 32 WHOLE CASES LIKE BRUH!!!

It's estimated they'll have a vaccine by the end of this year and the gov has invested 12 million into this virus.


Anyone have any thoughts on when schools could close down? Corona is spreading fast af so I'm estimating in around 2 weeks max and schools will close
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Em.-.
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(Original post by ColinDent)
So we have a choice, we can lock ourselves away and **** ourselves or we can get on with our lives.
I heard a medical expert on the radio saying that for most the symptoms are not that bad at all, now just how many people have been infected is in no way provable but there will undoubtedly be a very large amount of people that have had the virus and not even realised it so I would argue that the 3% figure is questionable.
I actually hope there are more mild cases unreported, however due to the mass media attention I suspect most people in infected areas would panic and get tested. It’s certainly worse than the flu, but it would be good if it mutated to become less deadly (of course it could mutate to become more deadly as it adapts to infecting humans). I hope exams aren’t cancelled but I certainly wouldn’t like to be doing an exam while having “chills, fever and a headache”.

I wouldn’t care if schools got shut before exams, I learn better by myself. I just think the large amount of cases which must be hospitalised is quite alarming and would have negative effects on the NHS and other people who are ill and needing treatment.
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PTMalewski
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(Original post by ColinDent)
It's the same as the SARS outbreak a few years ago, the media love to sensationalise stuff but in reality this is just a new strain of influenza, which already kills on average 600 people a year in the UK and, in the case of 2008/09 ( not the SARS year) over 13000

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

I'm afraid it's just part of life.
Only SARS was much more dangerous.

This Coronavirus now, is deadly tops for 3% of infected, and those who die from it, have to already be very ill from diseases that significantly weaken the immune system, either directly, or as a backifiring of treatment, eg. AIDS, cancer, condition after transplant etc, and 3% is probably a huge overestimation, as many people probably went through it, thinking it's a regular influenza.

Among young people,. the factor is even lower, that is 0,11%

(Original post by ZAK_ZAK122)
Hope you're all well,

Basically, coronavirus is sort of spreading like crazy in the uk and government officials are saying schools may have to close down, like bloody hell this is SERIOUS!!!
Of course they are saying that. If they spread panic, damage the economy and recklessly spend a couple millions of public money, noone would notice, but if five people died, which could have been avoided if schools were closed, this would cost them their chairs, and as a result, their source of income for their living. So they are going to spread panic just to show their voters how much do they care for them, while catching a regular influenza and staying active is probably much more dangerous for 99+% of population, than catching this Coronavirus and staying at home with a cup of hot black tea.
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PTMalewski
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(Original post by Em.-.)
I actually hope there are more mild cases unreported, however due to the mass media attention I suspect most people in infected areas would panic and get tested. It’s certainly worse than the flu, but it would be good if it mutated to become less deadly (of course it could mutate to become more deadly as it adapts to infecting humans).
The reports prepared by scientists I've read, claim that an unknown number of infected people don't even know they caught the virus, because to some people are completely immune to it, while symptoms are similar to that of influenza, so probably many people who are now on sick leaves, may have the virus and be thinking it's just a normal flu.

Btw. those who got infected now, and recovered are only going to be more immune to the future mutations of this virus, unless they've happened to be in the small group that went through it badly, and even yet smaller group that received some permanent damage.
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Napp
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(Original post by ZAK_ZAK122)
Basically, coronavirus is sort of spreading like crazy in the uk and government officials are saying schools may have to close down, like bloody hell this is SERIOUS!!!
Hardly. Its barely little more than a trickle at present.
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Em.-.
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(Original post by PTMalewski)
The reports prepared by scientists I've read, claim that an unknown number of infected people don't even know they caught the virus, because to some people are completely immune to it, while symptoms are similar to that of influenza, so probably many people who are now on sick leaves, may have the virus and be thinking it's just a normal flu.

Btw. those who got infected now, and recovered are only going to be more immune to the future mutations of this virus, unless they've happened to be in the small group that went through it badly, and even yet smaller group that received some permanent damage.
I suspect most people in infected areas who have influenza symptoms will get tested due to knowing there’s an outbreak, besides people could be dying from unconfirmed cases, so there a chance the death rate may be quite accurately known, unless the virus mutates to become less deadly. Right now it’s 6% deaths, 94% recovered (comparing cases with outcomes is better than comparing deaths with total cases as many of these may also result in death). This number has been slowly decreasing, though I think it will get to 3%. If there’s more cases globally where people aren’t cautious of catching the virus and so don’t get tested then I suspect this death rate will be lower.

Immunity is short lived for this virus it appears. A woman has caught it twice, or if not the virus has lied dormant in her and then resurfaced. Letting it run it’s course instead of stopping it now wouldn’t help much since people can catch it again quite easily.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ColinDent)
So we have a choice, we can lock ourselves away and **** ourselves or we can get on with our lives.
I heard a medical expert on the radio saying that for most the symptoms are not that bad at all, now just how many people have been infected is in no way provable but there will undoubtedly be a very large amount of people that have had the virus and not even realised it so I would argue that the 3% figure is questionable.
We now have four nations with sample sizes of several thousand and neither South Korea or Italy have any reason not to be believed.

China - 3.6%
South Korea - 0.5%
Iran - 3.1%
Italy - 2.6%
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PTMalewski
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(Original post by Em.-.)
Immunity is short lived for this virus it appears. A woman has caught it twice, or if not the virus has lied dormant in her and then resurfaced.
Same as with regular influenza which mutates quickly, plus after being ill, you're weakened.
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Em.-.
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(Original post by PTMalewski)
Same as with regular influenza which mutates quickly, plus after being ill, you're weakened.
Yep or if you’re unlucky enough to get a flu and the novel coronavirus around the same time then that could be problematic, showing it’s not only the elderly or people with underlying health conditions at risk, anyone could be unlucky enough to get another infection at the wrong time.
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PTMalewski
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(Original post by Em.-.)
Yep or if you’re unlucky enough to get a flu and the novel coronavirus around the same time then that could be problematic, showing it’s not only the elderly or people with underlying health conditions at risk, anyone could be unlucky enough to get another infection at the wrong time.
Same as unlucky to get cancer, catch HIV, being run over by a car, or cause a fatal car accident. Most of fatal car crashes happen on straight roads in good conditions. And how many people drive slowly on straight roads when there are good conditions or attend advanced driving technique courses to prevent having crashes this way?

Just have a cup of black tea with lemon, add some garlic to your soup, and relax.
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