Why is the UK the only country not closing schools?

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Pharyngotympanic
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It's a social experiment.
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TheMcSame
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(Original post by epicnm)
Because our government is stupid and led by an even more stupid leader. Boris seems to lack common sense, with the dangerously stupid idea of developing herd immunity, despite reports of victims developing the virus for a second time after catching it. Then again, this is the leader that the majority of Britain voted for...
(Original post by Ferrograd)
Thing is, I'm w


I thought the whole point of this was to avoid infection. there's been reports as people have mentioned of people getting it twice. surely if this method was more foolproof, other countries woulk be followng it
Was it not reported that there are currently two strains of this virus going around (L-type and S-type I believe they were classified as)? Are you able to catch it a third time?

Whether this is a good idea or not is yet to be seen, but if there are two strains of the virus going around, it makes total sense that you can catch it a second time. Currently, it's the third time which decides if this idea is good or bad. Though this could potentially go the same way influenza has gone and it could mutate year after year, becoming a seasonal illness.
(Original post by Lionheartat20)
But if the approach is to solve this through herd immunity, rather than quarantine etc, you are looking at >300,000+ Deaths within the U.K.
You'll solve the re-infection problem after a year or so when a vaccine is finally released.
The problem is that, much like the flu, most cases are relatively mild (I believe that as of this moment, only about 9% of reported cases are actually serious). Is that 300,000 deaths based on diagnosed cases? If so, it could be wildly inaccurate. Those with minor symptoms may simply just write it off as the flu or a cold, only yesterday an official went on TV and claimed that as many as 10,000 people may already be infected and (obviously) be undiagnosed. Not to mention the seriousness could be vastly over-represented since people with mild symptoms probably aren't going to seek medical attention, while those in serious condition generally will.
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Lionheartat20
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(Original post by TheMcSame)
Was it not reported that there are currently two strains of this virus going around (L-type and S-type I believe they were classified as)? Are you able to catch it a third time?

Whether this is a good idea or not is yet to be seen, but if there are two strains of the virus going around, it makes total sense that you can catch it a second time. Currently, it's the third time which decides if this idea is good or bad. Though this could potentially go the same way influenza has gone and it could mutate year after year, becoming a seasonal illness.

The problem is that, much like the flu, most cases are relatively mild (I believe that as of this moment, only about 9% of reported cases are actually serious). Is that 300,000 deaths based on diagnosed cases? If so, it could be wildly inaccurate. Those with minor symptoms may simply just write it off as the flu or a cold, only yesterday an official went on TV and claimed that as many as 10,000 people may already be infected and (obviously) be undiagnosed. Not to mention the seriousness could be vastly over-represented since people with mild symptoms probably aren't going to seek medical attention, while those in serious condition generally will.
There is a global mortality rate being calculated - which is varying on a daily basis as more and more cases are reported. The epidemologists do attempt to fully take into account the number of cases whom will not self-present using statistically modelling that is beyond my expertise. The mortality rate was originally thought to be 2%, then raised to around 3% (Source: https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../#who-03-03-20). I am trying to be conservative with a 1% mortality rate which I think is easily justified based on the above.

To physically achieve herd immunity, your population have to become infected. The % population requiring infection does vary depending on how contagious the virus is. Measles is known to be around 95% of the population requiring infection. To achieve herd immunity could take 90% of the popluation to be infected. This means - with a conservative 1% mortality rate - 500,000 deaths. This is why we should not be using Boris Plan but the rest of the World.

The issue why we haven't had plenty more deaths yet in the U.K is because the secondary infections (pneumonia) take a week or so to appear post-diagnosis. Therefore people are being diagnosed with a mild-COVID today; but they will only die in perhaps 10 days. So the mortality rate is still very low here but expect it to start climbing pretty rapidly in two weeks time. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days. (Source: https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ath-rate/#days)

We are also running at near capacity in ITU beds before the virus. Similar to Italy, we will then not be able to give the best treatment to everybody as we have only so many ventilators in this country. So the mortality rate of 1% soon becomes 3-5% as we have preventable deaths....
Last edited by Lionheartat20; 2 weeks ago
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Anonymousamie
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2020 is cursed fr lol
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Deggs_14
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(Original post by Pharyngotympanic)
It's a social experiment.
Ooh
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Joleee
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
Thing is, I'm w


I thought the whole point of this was to avoid infection. there's been reports as people have mentioned of people getting it twice. surely if this method was more foolproof, other countries woulk be followng it
i already told you my school is closed. like i literally can't go to class. i'm staying at home cuz coronavirus.

you have no idea what is currently going on and neither does anyone here in this thread.
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idek423
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Isn't there an issue with herd immunity in this case as the virus may mutate like the flu and therefore the virus would spread once again?
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OctoberRain7
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(Original post by 1st superstar)
Proceeds to refer the UK as a country and forgot that N.I. have shut down which is part of the UK
We haven't shut down
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1st superstar
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(Original post by Bio 7)
It doesn't matter who gets in they're all crap.
Agreed
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HarryOnTap
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(Original post by akragas)
Or grandparents will take care of the kids, and get infected.
Grandparents will be seeing their grandchildren anyway. School finishes at 3pm, a majority of parents put their kids in after school clubs or leave them with a relative until they finish work. How long will grandparents not see their grandchildren? At least if all kids stayed at home then the highest risk of spreading infection will be in that period of containment, rather than continuous risk whilst the kids are at school and coming home.
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slazman
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The thing I look at at the moment is that the one group of people who don't seem to be criticising the government's response is actual scientists and epidemiologists.

Of course opposition politicians such as the shadow health secretary will do so - if the plan backfires fir the government then they can play the 'I told you so' card and improve the party image at the expense of the government. Take things coming from the Labor party with a pinch of salt is what I'd say.

A great number of the general public are doing the same of course, but this is largely fueled by the media hysteria around the virus creating panic. These peoples opinions are based on hearsay and articles they've seen or been told about - it all tends to get convoluted pretty quickly and it's hard to sort fact from fiction.

The people who have studied for years and are qualified to try and model the mechanics of the outbreak are the ones we should listen to, and as if yet there doesnt seem to be an awful lot of criticism from that direction. This would indicate to me that the Governments approach is valid - not necessarily fool proof or perfect or better than the alternatives, but not mindless nonsense concocted by a bunch of corrupt, brainless, money grabbing buffoons as some people here seen to think.
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Hope5677
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(Original post by epicnm)
Because our government is stupid and led by an even more stupid leader. Boris seems to lack common sense, with the dangerously stupid idea of developing herd immunity, despite reports of victims developing the virus for a second time after catching it. Then again, this is the leader that the majority of Britain voted for...
you forgot to add coronavirus leads to death
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mariachi
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(Original post by slazman)
the Government's approach is (...) not mindless nonsense concocted by a bunch of corrupt, brainless, money grabbing buffoons as some people here seen to think.
true : it's concocted by a group of corrupt, brainless, money grabbing, cynical buffoons who are gambling with the life of about half a million of elderly or immunocompromised people
best
Last edited by mariachi; 2 weeks ago
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Bang Outta Order
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(Original post by ANM775)
The governments solution to sorting out the contravirus is to let 60% of population become infected so the nation will get herd immunity.

I saw a news article about it today.....
Sounds about right, except I don't know what herd immunity is
(Original post by epicnm)
Because our government is stupid and led by an even more stupid leader. Boris seems to lack common sense, with the dangerously stupid idea of developing herd immunity, despite reports of victims developing the virus for a second time after catching it. Then again, this is the leader that the majority of Britain voted for...
Yea what's herd immunity lol
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JDINCINERATOR
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
They have their rationale for it - but why is the UK the only country that seems to be following this approach? I wouldn't question it if other countries were following it but it seems odd that we aren't closing schools.

In my view - and I'm not a scientist - close schools, close borders, shut down all air travel. Seems common sense should prevail here
You could tell everybody in the country to stay home and isolate themselves and the virus would still spread-so why just give up and concede to what the virus influences us to do?
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dpm
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(Original post by Greywolftwo)
At this point in time it will do nothing if you shut down schools and colleges. Having looked into it and the science behind it it’s actually a good idea.
you have looked in the wrong places.

https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2...e-spanish.html
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dpm
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(Original post by 999tigger)
Because its seen as ineffective and will cause more issues than it solves. The young are the least at risk.
I think you mean inconvenient, not ineffective.
Proactive closure of schools, colleges and Uni is most certainly effective.
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umbrellala
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
They have their rationale for it - but why is the UK the only country that seems to be following this approach? I wouldn't question it if other countries were following it but it seems odd that we aren't closing schools.

In my view - and I'm not a scientist - close schools, close borders, shut down all air travel. Seems common sense should prevail here
In my opinion universities and businesses should absolutely be closed wherever possible and move to online lectures/meetings etc. Schools are trickier but if they're going to stay open they should be regularly screening students at the very least
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999tigger
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(Original post by dpm)
I think you mean inconvenient, not ineffective.
Proactive closure of schools, colleges and Uni is most certainly effective.
Nope I mean ineffective, thanks for trying to tell me what I think, kindly do one.
Last edited by 999tigger; 2 weeks ago
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Karisa96
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I definitely think it will be coming very soon.
Bearing in mind we are told we are a few weeks behind Italy.
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